本文選題：影子銀行 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)��； 參考：《遼寧大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：已經(jīng)過(guò)去近六年的金融危機(jī)至今還讓世界心驚膽戰(zhàn)，因?yàn)檎l(shuí)都無(wú)法預(yù)知危機(jī)效應(yīng)是否完全表露，后續(xù)能否會(huì)隱藏著更大的危機(jī)爆發(fā)，在這場(chǎng)沒(méi)有硝煙的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)中，世界各國(guó)付出的代價(jià)是慘重的。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇疲軟，不確定性因素持續(xù)增多，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)如何在金融領(lǐng)域重建平衡成為各國(guó)重要任務(wù)。面對(duì)金融危機(jī)雖有忌憚，但還是要研究與分析金融危機(jī)，在探索中改革經(jīng)濟(jì)金融領(lǐng)域的缺陷，維護(hù)金融體系穩(wěn)定。在這個(gè)過(guò)程中，一個(gè)新的金融術(shù)語(yǔ)——影子銀行躍然出現(xiàn)在世人面前，引起國(guó)際社會(huì)的廣泛關(guān)注，因?yàn)槭澜缃鹑隗w系的結(jié)構(gòu)因他而改變了。 影子銀行體系,概括的說(shuō)是指作為對(duì)商業(yè)銀行的補(bǔ)充，發(fā)揮與商業(yè)銀行類(lèi)似的職能卻不像商業(yè)銀行一樣受到監(jiān)管體系的嚴(yán)密監(jiān)管，游離在監(jiān)管的灰色地帶或者監(jiān)管之外,這個(gè)非銀行金融體系的發(fā)展歷程是金融機(jī)構(gòu)與政府監(jiān)管不斷博弈的過(guò)程。當(dāng)前，較普遍的觀(guān)點(diǎn)認(rèn)定影子銀行是金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)和貨幣政策失效的罪魁禍?zhǔn)祝窍到y(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要來(lái)源，而監(jiān)管缺失是導(dǎo)致危機(jī)的主要推手，因此各國(guó)開(kāi)始嚴(yán)格審視本國(guó)金融系統(tǒng),將影子銀行體系作為重點(diǎn)研究對(duì)象,而重中之重就是對(duì)監(jiān)管框架的探討與搭建。其實(shí)，影子銀行并不必然產(chǎn)生系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，過(guò)去30余年的運(yùn)行及其給美國(guó)金融體系帶來(lái)的高效、高收益說(shuō)明嚴(yán)控、制止其發(fā)展是不合理的。換句話(huà)說(shuō)，影子銀行是金融技術(shù)、制度創(chuàng)新的產(chǎn)物，而沒(méi)有金融創(chuàng)新就沒(méi)有金融發(fā)展。金融市場(chǎng)的多樣化、多層級(jí)發(fā)展是提高金融效率的關(guān)鍵。隨著金融創(chuàng)新的深化，跨行業(yè)、跨機(jī)構(gòu)、跨市場(chǎng)、跨國(guó)界的金融業(yè)務(wù)交叉融合，影子銀行的系統(tǒng)重要性開(kāi)始增強(qiáng)，對(duì)金融體系穩(wěn)定性影響越來(lái)越突出。揭開(kāi)影子銀行的面紗，影子銀行的業(yè)務(wù)實(shí)質(zhì)上是復(fù)制與延伸了金融衍生產(chǎn)品，釋放出大量流動(dòng)性，滿(mǎn)足社會(huì)資金需求。但是開(kāi)發(fā)產(chǎn)品的機(jī)構(gòu)或個(gè)人無(wú)法憑借計(jì)算機(jī)、模型、數(shù)學(xué)公式來(lái)推算產(chǎn)品蘊(yùn)藏的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)級(jí)數(shù)，因此增加了影子銀行復(fù)雜而神秘的特性。 在金融危機(jī)發(fā)生之前，西方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)被經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮灌輸了投資熱情，忽視了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所在，出現(xiàn)借貸超負(fù)荷，影子銀行規(guī)模巨大，超出傳統(tǒng)銀行的2倍，而且形式多樣、變化多端，極高的關(guān)聯(lián)度和復(fù)雜的結(jié)構(gòu)掩蓋了運(yùn)作實(shí)質(zhì)，超出監(jiān)管視力所及。而中國(guó)的影子銀行與傳統(tǒng)銀行的融資模式類(lèi)似，沒(méi)有太復(fù)雜的關(guān)系，更多的是充當(dāng)了傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)銀行的補(bǔ)充渠道。但隨著金融市場(chǎng)自由化和國(guó)際化，中國(guó)的影子銀行迅速發(fā)展起來(lái)，在某種程度上改變了中國(guó)的金融結(jié)構(gòu)，使中國(guó)的金融領(lǐng)域和整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的的發(fā)展發(fā)生了根本性的改變。中國(guó)需要在金融領(lǐng)域重建平衡，那么需要將影子銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及監(jiān)管納入到一個(gè)框架中進(jìn)行整體了解與研究，才能系統(tǒng)而有針對(duì)性的提出對(duì)策，達(dá)到平穩(wěn)解決中國(guó)影子銀行問(wèn)題的目的。 因此，論文以理論研究為出發(fā)點(diǎn)，運(yùn)用數(shù)據(jù)分析、實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)以及模型擬合等相關(guān)方法系統(tǒng)分析中國(guó)的影子銀行，以期在全面認(rèn)識(shí)中國(guó)影子銀行迅速發(fā)展的動(dòng)因、宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)、對(duì)傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)銀行的影響、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)本質(zhì)和監(jiān)管現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上，全面構(gòu)建適合中國(guó)國(guó)情的影子銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)測(cè)體系，平衡構(gòu)建中國(guó)影子銀行的監(jiān)管框架。 第一部分（第1章），概括性的提出論文的選題背景、研究意義以及研究思路和方法，重點(diǎn)分類(lèi)總結(jié)了國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀和文獻(xiàn)綜述，提出創(chuàng)新與不足。 第二部分（第2章），影子銀行之所以能高速發(fā)展、創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品并推動(dòng)金融體系結(jié)構(gòu)的變革,需要各種基礎(chǔ)理論的支持，因此第二章，在介紹二元金融理論、監(jiān)管套利理論和金融創(chuàng)新理論和金融抑制論的基礎(chǔ)上，泛泛介紹影子銀行的內(nèi)涵與外延、運(yùn)行現(xiàn)狀并分析了影子銀行內(nèi)生屬性的效應(yīng)。 第三部分（第3-5章），全面分析中國(guó)影子銀行發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、對(duì)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的異動(dòng)效應(yīng)和對(duì)傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)銀行的影響。第三章，重新定義中國(guó)影子銀行的概念及市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)，著重分析了其繁榮發(fā)展的成因和主要產(chǎn)品的運(yùn)行現(xiàn)狀。第四章，運(yùn)用灰色預(yù)測(cè)和SPSS等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)方法擬合出GDP、M2分別對(duì)影子銀行的影響的線(xiàn)性方程，以此來(lái)說(shuō)明影子銀行與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的相互影響關(guān)系，運(yùn)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的分析方法，圖解了影子銀行對(duì)貨幣政策的沖擊和影響。第五章，，通過(guò)微觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原理，運(yùn)用邊界分析，找到影子銀行和傳統(tǒng)銀行的最佳貸款規(guī)模的臨界點(diǎn)，解釋臨界點(diǎn)的意義，實(shí)證分析了影子銀行對(duì)傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)銀行盈利性的滯后一期影響和對(duì)信貸配給方式的影響。 第四部分（第6-7章），論文的落腳點(diǎn)在于影子銀行的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)測(cè)與防范以及平衡構(gòu)建中國(guó)影子銀行監(jiān)管體系。第六章，影子銀行與傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)銀行具有相似的信用創(chuàng)造功能，但卻破壞了貨幣乘數(shù)的作用，其潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不可避免，卻可以監(jiān)測(cè)和防范，于是在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)壓力指標(biāo)視角下通過(guò)實(shí)證分析，提出對(duì)中國(guó)影子銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行防范的對(duì)策建議。第七章，以理論分析和模型解析為導(dǎo)向，借鑒FSB、美國(guó)、英國(guó)、歐盟對(duì)影子銀行的國(guó)際監(jiān)管經(jīng)驗(yàn)，在研究中國(guó)監(jiān)管環(huán)境的基礎(chǔ)上提出平衡構(gòu)建中國(guó)影子銀行監(jiān)管體系的建議。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis that has been over the past six years has also been a world of terror to the world, because no one can predict whether the effect of the crisis is fully revealed, and whether the follow-up will hide a greater crisis. In this war without smoke, the price of the world is heavy. The recovery of the whole economy is weak and the uncertainty continues to increase. How the world economy rebalances in the financial field has become an important task for all countries. Although there is fear in the face of the financial crisis, it is still necessary to study and analyze the financial crisis, to reform the defects in the economic and financial field and to maintain the stability of the financial system in the exploration. In this process, a new golden term, the shadow bank, appears in the world. Before, it has attracted wide attention of the international community, because the structure of the world financial system has changed because of him.
As a supplement to commercial banks, the shadow banking system, as a supplement to commercial banks, is not closely regulated by the regulatory system like commercial banks. The development of this non bank financial system is a continuous game between financial institutions and government supervision. At present, the more common view is that the shadow bank is the culprit of the financial crisis and the failure of monetary policy. It is an important source of systemic risk, and the lack of supervision is the main push to cause the crisis. Therefore, countries begin to examine their own financial systems strictly and take the shadow banking system as the focus of research, and the most important In fact, shadow banking is not necessarily a systemic risk. The operation of the past 30 years and its high efficiency for the American financial system, the strict control of the high income statement, and the suppression of its development are unreasonable. In other words, the shadow bank is a product of financial technology, institutional innovation, and no financial innovation. There is no financial development. The diversification of the financial market and the multi-layer development are the key to improve the financial efficiency. With the deepening of the financial innovation, the cross industry, cross agency, cross market, cross-border financial business intersecting, the importance of the system of shadow banking has been strengthened and the stability of the financial system is more and more prominent. Veil, the shadow banking business is essentially duplicating and extending financial derivatives, releasing a lot of liquidity to meet the needs of social funds. But the institutions or individuals that develop products can not rely on computers, models, and mathematical formulas to calculate the risk progression of the products, thus increasing the complex and mysterious characteristics of the shadow banking.
Before the financial crisis, the western economic developed markets were instilled in the enthusiasm of investment by economic prosperity, ignoring the risk, overloading of lending, the huge size of the shadow banks, 2 times more than the traditional banks, and varied and varied forms, and high relevance and complex structures covered the operational essence beyond the regulatory vision. The shadow banking in China is similar to the traditional bank's financing mode, not too complicated, and more is the supplement channel for the traditional commercial banks. However, with the liberalization and internationalization of the financial market, the shadow banks in China have developed rapidly. In some ways, the financial structure of China has been changed to the financial field of China. A fundamental change has taken place in the development of the economy and society as a whole. China needs to rebuild its balance in the financial field, so that the economic effects, risks and supervision of the shadow banking should be integrated into a framework to make a whole understanding and research in order to make a systematic and targeted proposal to achieve a smooth solution to the problem of China's shadow banking. Objective.
Therefore, this paper, based on the theoretical research, uses data analysis, empirical test and model fitting to analyze the shadow banking system in China, in order to fully understand the causes of the rapid development of China's shadow banking, the macroeconomic effects, the impact on the traditional commercial banks, the nature of the risk and the status of supervision. Build a shadow banking risk monitoring system suitable for China's national conditions and balance the regulatory framework of China's shadow banking.
The first part (the first chapter), generality puts forward the background of topic selection, research significance and research ideas and methods, mainly classifies the research status and literature review at home and abroad, and puts forward innovation and deficiency.
The second part (second chapter), the reason why the shadow bank is able to develop rapidly, innovate the product and promote the reform of the financial system structure needs the support of all kinds of basic theories. Therefore, the second chapter introduces the connotation and extension of the shadow banking on the basis of the introduction of the two yuan financial theory, the supervision arbitrage theory, the financial innovation theory and the financial restraint theory. The present situation of operation and the effect of endogenous attributes of shadow banking are analyzed.
The third part (Chapter 3-5), a comprehensive analysis of the status quo of the development of China's shadow banking, the effect on the macroeconomic effects and the impact on the traditional commercial banks. The third chapter, redefining the concept and market structure of the Chinese shadow bank, and focusing on the causes of its prosperity and development and the running status of the main products. In the fourth chapter, the grey prediction and SP are used. SS and other econometric methods fit the linear equation of the influence of GDP and M2 to the shadow bank respectively, in order to explain the interaction relationship between the shadow bank and the economic growth, and use the economic analysis method to illustrate the impact and influence of the shadow bank on the monetary policy. The fifth chapter, through the principle of microeconomics, uses the boundary analysis. The critical point of the best loan scale of the shadow bank and the traditional bank is found, and the significance of the critical point is explained. The impact of the shadow bank on the lag of the profitability of the traditional commercial banks and the way of the credit rationing are empirically analyzed.
The fourth part (Chapter 6-7), the foothold of the thesis lies in the risk monitoring and prevention of the shadow bank and the construction of the shadow banking supervision system in China. The sixth chapter, the shadow bank and the traditional commercial banks have similar credit creation functions, but they have destroyed the use of the monetary multiplier, and the potential risks are inevitable, but they can be monitored and prevented. The seventh chapter, guided by theoretical analysis and model analysis, draws lessons from the international regulatory experience of FSB, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union on the shadow banking, and puts forward a balanced construction of China on the basis of the study of China's regulatory environment. Proposals for the shadow banking regulatory system.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.39

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