本文選題：風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 企業(yè)　； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和金融自由化的不斷推進(jìn)，以實(shí)現(xiàn)資源全球最佳配置為目標(biāo)的企業(yè)境外直接投資活動(dòng)迅猛發(fā)展，帶動(dòng)著資本等各生產(chǎn)要素跨越國(guó)界的轉(zhuǎn)移。境外直接投資在發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的發(fā)展歷程中起到了尤為重要的作用,發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家創(chuàng)造財(cái)富和社會(huì)效益是通過資本、技術(shù)和管理在全球范圍內(nèi)的優(yōu)化配置，為資本輸出國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，擺脫資源、人口的限制做出了重大的貢獻(xiàn)。而如今，，境外直接投資不再是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的專利,日益成為發(fā)展中國(guó)家在全球配置資源和參與國(guó)際分工的一種主要形式。中國(guó)不僅僅是一個(gè)資源大國(guó)，還是一個(gè)人均資源貧乏國(guó)。尤其是在改革開放初期的粗放式經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中,資源消耗巨大,利用率不高,資源日益成為限制國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的瓶頸；雖然是一個(gè)人口大國(guó),但是人口老齡化的狀態(tài)，比較優(yōu)勢(shì)也不會(huì)成為與其他國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的法寶；又因?yàn)橹袊?guó)一大批有實(shí)力有優(yōu)勢(shì)的企業(yè),積極實(shí)施了“走出去”戰(zhàn)略,加快了國(guó)際化步伐,開展了境外工程承包、收購(gòu)資源、企業(yè)并購(gòu)、境外上市等國(guó)際投資與經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng),充分利用了國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)兩種資源,廣泛參與了國(guó)際國(guó)內(nèi)兩種市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，并取得了一定的成績(jī)。這些都決定了為了我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展必須走出國(guó)門,充分利用國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)外兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)、兩種資源。在改革開放的30多年間，由于中國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資存量的不斷提升，中國(guó)企業(yè)境外投資的區(qū)域和投資行業(yè)范圍也相繼擴(kuò)大。境外直接投資的增加對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)快速發(fā)展、經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)外開放度提高及經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型起到了很好的促進(jìn)作用。與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)企業(yè)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和國(guó)際形象也得到了顯著提升。然而，伴隨著中國(guó)企業(yè)境外直接投資的快速發(fā)展，投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題日益凸顯，并已經(jīng)成為困擾中國(guó)企業(yè)境外投資的主要抑制因素。加強(qiáng)中國(guó)企業(yè)境外直接投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制已經(jīng)成為不得不盡快解決的關(guān)鍵問題。 本文的主旨在于通過分析國(guó)內(nèi)外的境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀態(tài)，提出相應(yīng)的針對(duì)我國(guó)境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范機(jī)制構(gòu)建的建議。本文通過對(duì)中國(guó)企業(yè)境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)狀以及構(gòu)建企業(yè)境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量化模型分析中國(guó)企業(yè)境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)級(jí)別，在借鑒發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，從國(guó)家宏觀層面和企業(yè)內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)治理機(jī)制兩個(gè)角度提出了中國(guó)企業(yè)境外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的建議。 本文包括七個(gè)部分的內(nèi)容,先論證了論文選題的背景和意義,闡述了論文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)與不足；再對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)理論文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)回顧；然后對(duì)境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論等相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行了界定；之后對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體企業(yè)境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范進(jìn)行分析；最后從國(guó)家宏觀層面和企業(yè)內(nèi)部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)治理機(jī)制兩個(gè)角度提出了中國(guó)企業(yè)境外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的建議。通過相關(guān)的論述和實(shí)證分析,得出本研究的主要結(jié)論： 1.中國(guó)企業(yè)境外直接投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)形式多樣、來(lái)源復(fù)雜、總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)模較大。相較于國(guó)內(nèi)投資，境外直接投資所面臨的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境更加復(fù)雜。 2.宏觀層面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制機(jī)制建設(shè)是企業(yè)境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的基礎(chǔ)環(huán)境。中國(guó)企業(yè)應(yīng)對(duì)境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的能力不強(qiáng)，因此需要國(guó)家從宏觀層面對(duì)企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制提供支持。 3.強(qiáng)化企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理能力是有效控制境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的根本措施。應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主體是企業(yè)，只有強(qiáng)化企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制能力，才能有效提升中國(guó)企業(yè)境外直接投資的績(jī)效，降低投資損失的可能性。只有從制度層面和企業(yè)文化層面構(gòu)建全員風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控的體系，才能有效控制境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文研究的創(chuàng)新之處在于： 1、本文通過對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的研究成果的梳理，提出一個(gè)全面并具體的境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義，認(rèn)為境外直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可以界定為：能引起企業(yè)在國(guó)境以外與預(yù)期結(jié)果偏差的直接投資利潤(rùn)的可能性，是指會(huì)引起海外企業(yè)投資運(yùn)營(yíng)變動(dòng)或者減少企業(yè)的盈利率的可能性。 2、本文對(duì)境外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系進(jìn)行了完善。國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者和學(xué)術(shù)機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)外投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的指標(biāo)選擇和測(cè)度具有不同的構(gòu)建方法。本文在綜合世界銀行、聯(lián)合國(guó)貿(mào)發(fā)會(huì)議組織，以及Robock、Bennett和Green、Bradley、Rummel和Heenan等投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控專家觀點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上，將影響企業(yè)對(duì)外投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)總體歸納為國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)兩大類，并最終構(gòu)建了一個(gè)具有不同賦權(quán)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系。 3、本文建立了一個(gè)模糊綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型(F-AHP)。利用模型，將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量化，從而指導(dǎo)企業(yè)的境外直接投資行為，達(dá)到能夠預(yù)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、認(rèn)知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的效果。 4、本文從內(nèi)部微觀層面和外部宏觀層面建立動(dòng)態(tài)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范機(jī)制，以實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)和控制相連接和相促進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:In recent years , with the rapid development of economic globalization and financial liberalization , the overseas direct investment activities of enterprises with the aim of realizing the optimal allocation of resources have played a particularly important role in the development of the developed countries , and the wealth and social benefit of developed countries have played an important role in the development of the developed countries .
Although it is a big country , the status of the aging of the population , the comparative advantage will not be the magic weapon that competes with other countries ;
In the last 30 years of reform and opening - up , China has made full use of both domestic and foreign markets and has made full use of both domestic and foreign markets , and has made full use of both domestic and foreign markets , and has made full use of both domestic and foreign markets .

Based on the experience of developed countries and emerging economies , the paper puts forward some suggestions on the risk control of overseas investment in China .

This thesis consists of seven parts , first demonstrates the background and significance of the thesis selection , and expounds the innovation point and deficiency of the thesis .
The paper reviews the relevant theoretical literatures about the risk of foreign direct investment at home and abroad .
Then the overseas direct investment risk theory and other relevant concepts are defined ;
After that , the risk prevention of foreign direct investment in developed and emerging economies is analyzed .
Finally , the proposal of risk control of overseas investment in Chinese enterprises is put forward from two aspects of the macro - level of the country and the internal risk management mechanism of the enterprise . Through the relevant exposition and demonstration analysis , the main conclusions of this study are drawn :

1 . The risk of overseas direct investment in Chinese enterprises is varied , the source is complex and the overall risk is large . Compared with domestic investment , the market environment faced by foreign direct investment is more complex .

2 . The construction of the risk control mechanism at the macro level is the basic environment for the direct investment risk control outside the enterprise . The Chinese enterprises should not have strong ability to deal with the risk of foreign direct investment . Therefore , it is necessary for the state to support the enterprise ' s risk control from the macro level .

3 . Strengthening the enterprise risk management ability is the fundamental measure to effectively control the risk of overseas direct investment . The main subject of risk is the enterprise . Only if the risk control ability of the enterprise is strengthened , it can effectively improve the performance of the overseas direct investment of Chinese enterprises and reduce the possibility of investment loss . Only the system of risk control should be built from the system level and the enterprise culture level to effectively control the risk of foreign direct investment .

The innovation of this study lies in :

1 . By combing the research results of scholars at home and abroad , this paper puts forward a comprehensive and concrete definition of overseas direct investment risk . It is suggested that the risk of overseas direct investment can be defined as the possibility of the direct investment profit that can cause the deviation of the enterprise from the expected result .

2 . In this paper , the overseas investment risk assessment system is perfected . The index selection and measure of foreign investment risk of scholars and academic institutions at home and abroad have different construction methods . Based on the perspectives of investment risk control experts , such as the World Bank , the United Nations Conference on UNCTAD , Robock , Bennett and Green , Bradley , Rugged and Heenan , this paper summarizes the risk of foreign investment in enterprises into two broad categories of country risk and enterprise risk , and finally constructs a risk assessment system with different empowerment .

3 . A fuzzy comprehensive risk evaluation model ( F - AHP ) is established in this paper . The model is used to quantify the risk , so as to guide the overseas direct investment behavior of the enterprise and achieve the expected risk , cognitive risk , risk assessment and control risk .

4 . This paper establishes a dynamic risk prevention mechanism from the internal micro level and the external macro level to realize the connection and promotion of the enterprise investment risk evaluation and control .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F279.2;F832.6

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