本文選題：人民幣匯率　切入點(diǎn)：出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《安徽大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：對(duì)外開(kāi)放以來(lái),我國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易取得了快速的發(fā)展,為我國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展做出了較大的貢獻(xiàn)。人民幣匯率和我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的聯(lián)系也越來(lái)越密切。人民幣匯率波動(dòng)不僅影響了我國(guó)的貿(mào)易收支狀況,而且也推動(dòng)了我國(guó)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的變化。在當(dāng)前人民幣小幅度、穩(wěn)定的升值進(jìn)程中,只對(duì)總量的變化進(jìn)行研究是不夠的,并且也不能表現(xiàn)匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)各種商品類別的影響作用,因此,研究匯率對(duì)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的影響是非常必要的。匯率的變動(dòng)引發(fā)商品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的出口相對(duì)價(jià)格的變化,改變出口商品的出口貿(mào)易競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,進(jìn)而改變國(guó)際市場(chǎng)對(duì)我國(guó)出口商品的需求,除此之外還有其他如要素稟賦、出口國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、科技水平等因素影響一國(guó)出口商品的結(jié)構(gòu),目前已經(jīng)存在很多關(guān)于這些影響因素的理論研究,并得出了很多優(yōu)秀的研究成果。因而本文就著重從匯率變動(dòng)這個(gè)角度來(lái)研究我國(guó)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的變化。2005年我國(guó)匯率制度改革以來(lái),人民幣升值劇烈的沖擊了我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易,但也為提升我國(guó)外貿(mào)結(jié)構(gòu)帶來(lái)了契機(jī)。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),我國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品都是技術(shù)含量低、附加值低的,這導(dǎo)致我國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)企業(yè)處于世界產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的底端。要實(shí)現(xiàn)我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易質(zhì)的飛躍,必須改變現(xiàn)狀。人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化是有推動(dòng)作用的,然而這個(gè)過(guò)程應(yīng)該是循序漸進(jìn)的。我們要借鑒其它國(guó)家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和教訓(xùn),根據(jù)我國(guó)的實(shí)際情況制定配套的政策,以促進(jìn)我國(guó)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的順利進(jìn)行。人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的轉(zhuǎn)變和優(yōu)化有著深遠(yuǎn)的影響。 本文主要研究匯率變動(dòng)與我國(guó)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)之間的關(guān)系�？梢苑譃樗恼�。第一章,緒論。說(shuō)明了本文選題的背景和意義,概述了本文研究的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)綜述,簡(jiǎn)要介紹了這方面國(guó)內(nèi)外的相關(guān)研究成果。第二章,匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)影響的理論基礎(chǔ)。主要介紹了匯率與比較優(yōu)勢(shì)論、匯率的彈性分析理論,匯率非中性理論。從理論上考察一國(guó)匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,并且在比較優(yōu)勢(shì)理論中引入?yún)R率這一因素,得出匯率變動(dòng)會(huì)改變一國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的結(jié)論。第三章,匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。首先介紹了匯率和出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的相關(guān)概念和發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,然后具體分析人民幣匯率變動(dòng)是如何影響我國(guó)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的。在本文實(shí)證分析部分,以1990年到2012年的年度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,建立GDP、FDI、匯率和出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)這些變量間的計(jì)量模型,對(duì)它們進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果分析等來(lái)分析各變量間的因果關(guān)系和彼此間的影響程度。最后得出結(jié)論：人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)存在單向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系,匯率變動(dòng)、外商直接投資和我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平都對(duì)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生影響。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,在資本和技術(shù)要素不存在嚴(yán)重制約的條件下,人民幣匯率的升值對(duì)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的變化有正向帶動(dòng)作用。第四章,研究結(jié)論及相關(guān)對(duì)策建議。根據(jù)理論分析和實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果,提出提升我國(guó)出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的相關(guān)政策建議,通過(guò)提高我國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)含量和附加值、升級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、實(shí)施金融創(chuàng)新等措施來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)由“量”到“質(zhì)”的轉(zhuǎn)變。
[Abstract]:Since the opening up, China's foreign trade has made rapid development, has made great contributions to the rapid development of China's economy. The RMB exchange rate and China's foreign trade ties have become increasingly close. The RMB exchange rate fluctuations not only affect China's trade balance situation, but also promote the change in China the export commodity structure. In the current RMB appreciation of small amplitude, stable process, only to the total change research is not enough, and can not show the impact of changes in exchange rates, the categories of all kinds of goods it is very necessary to study the exchange rate impact on the export commodity structure. The exchange rate changes caused by the goods in on the international market of export relative price changes change the export commodity export trade competitiveness, and then change the international market for China's export demand, in addition to the he Factor endowment, export of domestic industrial structure, influence the structure of export commodities and other factors of the level of science and technology, there are already a lot of theoretical research on these factors, and got many outstanding research results. And since this paper focuses on the exchange rate from the point of view to study the changes of.2005 China's export commodity structure in our in appreciation of the RMB exchange rate system reform, severe impact on China's import and export trade, but also brings an opportunity for the promotion of foreign trade structure in China. For a long time, China's export products are low tech, low added value, which led to China's export production enterprises in the world to the bottom of the industrial chain. Import and export trade of our country leap, must change the status quo. RMB appreciation has promoting effect on the optimization of China's export commodity structure, but the process should be gradual. We should learn from other countries experience and lessons, making related policies according to the actual situation of our country, in order to promote the optimization of China's export commodity structure smoothly. RMB real effective exchange rate has a profound impact on the transformation and optimization of China's export commodity structure.
This paper mainly studies the relationship between exchange rate and China's export commodity structure. It can be divided into four chapters. The first chapter, introduction. Explains the background and significance of this topic, summarizes the related literature review this paper, briefly introduces the research achievements at home and abroad. The second chapter, theoretical basis of the impact of exchange rate fluctuations the export commodity structure. This paper mainly introduced the exchange rate and the comparative advantage theory, theoretical analysis of the exchange rate elasticity of exchange rate, non neutral theory. A study of influence of exchange rate on export commodity structure in theory, and the exchange rate factor introduced in the comparative advantage theory, the exchange rate will change the competitive advantage of a country's exports the conclusion. In the third chapter, effects of exchange rate changes on China's export commodity structure. Firstly introduces the concepts of exchange rate and export commodity structure and development status, and then a detailed analysis of the people The RMB exchange rate change is how to influence China's export commodity structure. In the part of empirical analysis, the annual data from 1990 to 2012 as a sample, the establishment of GDP, FDI, the measurement model of exchange rate and export commodity structure between these variables, Grainger causality analysis on them to analyze the causal relationship between the variables and the influence to each other. The degree of Inter. Conclusion: there is a one-way causal relationship between Grainger, the real effective exchange rate of RMB exchange rate and export commodity structure, foreign direct investment and China's domestic economic development level of impact on export commodities. In the long term, does not exist in the capital and technical elements restrict conditions, the RMB exchange rate the appreciation has positive effect on the change of the structure of export commodities. In the fourth chapter, the research conclusion and relevant countermeasures and suggestions. According to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, This paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations to improve the structure of China's export commodities. By improving the technological content and added value of China's export products, upgrading industrial structure and implementing financial innovation, China's foreign trade export product structure will change from quantity to quality.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.62

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