本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國股票市場發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的實證研究　出處：《東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 股票市場 經(jīng)濟增長 資本化率 流動性 波動性

【摘要】：我國改革開放已經(jīng)經(jīng)過了30多年的歷程,在這30多年中經(jīng)濟發(fā)展保持了較高的增長速度,其中金融市場發(fā)揮了不小的作用,然而在我國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)高速增長的同時,也出現(xiàn)了資本和勞動過剩的問題,這說明,在我國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中,資本和勞動組合的配置功能出現(xiàn)了一定的問題,這與金融發(fā)展有關(guān)。目前我國銀行業(yè)經(jīng)過了多次改革,已經(jīng)基本確立了較完善的治理結(jié)構(gòu)和較高的運行效率。另一方面,我國的股票市場才走過了二十個年頭,發(fā)展還不成熟,與實體經(jīng)濟脫節(jié)嚴(yán)重,其發(fā)展嚴(yán)重滯后于西方國家的股票市場。股票市場作為未來金融市場的主體,其對經(jīng)濟增長的影響如何是一個需要討論的很現(xiàn)實的也是很迫切的問題。 本文首先在引言中闡明選題的背景,進一步提出本文想要探討的問題,然后從多方面回顧國內(nèi)和國外學(xué)者對該問題的研究方法以及成果,總結(jié)了眾多學(xué)者對于該問題的分歧,以及各自所持的觀點及依據(jù)。 其次本文介紹了股票市場的基本功能,由于股票市場的普遍適用性,本文將股票市場的基本功能歸納為五個方面,第一、提供流動性；第二、分散風(fēng)險；第三、獲取公司信息；第四、改善公司治理；第五、動員社會儲蓄。然后本文從路徑分析的角度,探討了其可能促進經(jīng)濟增長的三個路徑：第一、改變儲蓄與投資之間轉(zhuǎn)化的比例ω；第二、提高資本生產(chǎn)效率A；第三、改變私人儲蓄率S；從傳導(dǎo)機制的角度,探討了其可能影響經(jīng)濟增長的三個渠道：第一、財富效應(yīng)渠道；第二、投資效應(yīng)渠道；第三、資產(chǎn)負債表渠道。 再次本文從實證的角度開始探討我國股票市場與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系。本文首先闡明了經(jīng)濟增長的內(nèi)涵和能體現(xiàn)股票市場發(fā)展的三個指標(biāo)資本化率、流動性和波動性。選取2000-2011年我國實際GDP、資本化率、波動性和流動性四個指標(biāo)的季度數(shù)據(jù),以實際GDP為因變量,以資本化率、波動性和流動性為自變量建立VAR模型,運用約翰森協(xié)整檢驗、格蘭杰因果檢驗和脈沖響應(yīng)分析等多種計量分析方法,考察股票市場發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟增長的影響和作用機制。通過約翰森協(xié)整檢驗發(fā)現(xiàn),長期內(nèi)兩者之間有一定的相互關(guān)系。由格蘭杰因果檢驗得到：表示股票市場規(guī)模的指標(biāo)資本化率與實際GDP存在雙向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系；股票市場波動性指標(biāo)和股票市場流動性指標(biāo)與實際GDP存在單向的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系；股票市場波動性指標(biāo)和股票市場流動性指標(biāo)是實際GDP的格蘭杰原因；而實際GDP卻不是股票市場波動性指標(biāo)和股票市場流動性指標(biāo)的格蘭杰原因。脈沖響應(yīng)分析結(jié)果表明：股票市場發(fā)展與我國經(jīng)濟增長弱相關(guān),股票市場規(guī)模、流動性和波動性對經(jīng)濟增長的影響較小,經(jīng)濟增長對股票市場規(guī)模的影響是正向的。 最后本文針對股票市場發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的實證結(jié)果,進行了初步分析。實證結(jié)果中的弱相關(guān)性,可能是由于股票市場在監(jiān)督上市公司和提供有用信息方面發(fā)揮的作用是有限的,其資源配置效率還有待提高。原因歸納為以下幾點：第一、上市公司質(zhì)量不高；第二、股票市場存在較強的投機行為；第三、非流通股的存在；第四、政府的過度干預(yù)對股票市場的穩(wěn)定性產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重影響。由以上的分析我們看到我國股票市場在總體上與我國經(jīng)濟增長還是有正向關(guān)系的,但是股票市場發(fā)揮的還是基礎(chǔ)的籌融資功能,本文從以下四個方面提出了政策建議：第一、轉(zhuǎn)變我國股市的定位；第二、擴大股市規(guī)模；第三、加強監(jiān)管遏制投機；第四、防范金融危機。相信隨著我國股票市場逐步的走向成熟化、規(guī)范化和國際化后,將會在更大程度上促進我國經(jīng)濟的增長。
[Abstract]:China's reform and opening up has been 30 years of history, the economic development in the 30 years to maintain a high growth rate, the financial market has played an important role, but in China's sustained rapid economic growth at the same time, there is a problem of capital and labor surplus, this shows that in our country in the economic development, the combination of capital and labor allocation function of some problems with the financial development. At present, China's banking industry after several reforms, has established the basic operating efficiency is high and the perfect governance structure. On the other hand, China's stock market has been over twenty years. Development is not mature, the serious gap between the real economy, its development lags behind western countries stock market. The stock market as the subject of the future of the financial market, it is a need to discuss the impact on economic growth It's real and urgent.
This paper first explains the background in the introduction, this paper further proposes to investigate the problem, and then review the research methods of domestic and foreign scholars on this issue and results from many aspects, summed up many scholars about the problem and point of view and differences, according to their respective holdings.
Secondly, this paper introduces the basic functions of the stock market, due to the general applicability of the stock market, the stock market's basic functions include five aspects, first, to provide liquidity; second, reduce risk; third, to obtain the company's information; fourth, improve the corporate governance; the fifth, and then from the mobilization of social savings. Path analysis, discusses the three path may promote economic growth: first, change between savings and investment conversion ratio second, omega; to improve the capital efficiency of A; third, change the private savings rate S; from the transmission mechanism perspective, discusses the three channels are likely to affect the economic growth: the first second, the wealth effect, investment effect channel; channel; third, the balance sheet channel.
Again, from the empirical point of view began to explore the relationship between stock market and economic growth in China. The three indicators of capitalization rate this paper first clarifies the connotation of economic growth and can reflect the development of stock market, liquidity and volatility. By selecting the actual GDP 2000-2011 in our country, the capitalization rate, quarterly data of four index fluctuations and liquidity, real GDP as the dependent variable, the capitalization rate, volatility and liquidity to establish VAR model as independent variables, using the Johannsen cointegration test, Grainger causality test and impulse response analysis and other quantitative analysis methods to study the development of the stock market's impact on economic growth and the mechanism of action by Johannsen Co. The inspection found that there is a definite relation between the two. In the long term by Grainger causality test: the size of the stock market index capitalization rate and the actual existence of GDP bidirectional Glenn Jie Yin Fruit; there is a unidirectional causal relationship between Grainger index of stock market liquidity volatility and stock market index and the actual GDP index; liquidity of stock market volatility index and the stock market is the actual causes of Grainger GDP; and GDP is not the actual stock market volatility refers to the liquidity of the underlying reason Grainger index and the stock market pulse. Response analysis shows that the stock market development and economic growth of China's weak correlation, the size of the stock market, liquidity and volatility had little effect on economic growth, the impact of economic growth on the stock market scale is positive.
Finally, according to the empirical results of the relationship between stock market development and economic growth, are analyzed. The weak correlation between the empirical results, may be due to the stock market play in the supervision of listed companies and to provide useful information for the role is limited, the resource allocation efficiency needs to be improved. The reason is summarized as follows: first and the quality of listed companies is not high; second, the stock market has strong speculation; third, the existence of non tradable shares; fourth, seriously affect the stability of excessive government intervention in the stock market. From the above analysis, we can see that China's stock market in general and China's economic growth is still positive relationship. But the stock market play based financing function, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the following four aspects: first, the transformation of China's stock market positioning; second, expand Stock market scale; third, strengthen supervision and curb speculation; fourth, guard against financial crisis. I believe that with the gradual maturity of China's stock market, normalization and internationalization will promote China's economic growth to a greater extent.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F832.51;F124

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馬進;關(guān)偉;;我國股票市場與宏觀經(jīng)濟關(guān)系的實證分析[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2006年08期

2 胡關(guān)金;中國證券業(yè)及上市公司對GDP貢獻的實證研究[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2003年03期

3 殷醒民,謝潔;中國股票市場與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的實證研究[J];復(fù)旦學(xué)報(社會科學(xué)版);2001年04期

4 范學(xué)俊;;股票市場與經(jīng)濟增長:一個基于信息不對稱的數(shù)理分析[J];華東師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(哲學(xué)社會科學(xué)版);2007年04期

5 王翔;李凌;;中國的金融發(fā)展、經(jīng)濟波動與經(jīng)濟增長:一項基于面板數(shù)據(jù)的研究[J];上海經(jīng)濟研究;2009年02期

6 李廣眾;銀行、股票市場與經(jīng)濟增長[J];經(jīng)濟科學(xué);2002年02期

7 呂振亞;劉亞琴;嚴(yán)忠;;股票市場發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系研究文獻綜述[J];經(jīng)濟師;2006年05期

8 徐高;林毅夫;;資本積累與最優(yōu)銀行規(guī)模[J];經(jīng)濟學(xué)(季刊);2008年02期

9 談儒勇;中國金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的實證研究[J];經(jīng)濟研究;1999年10期

10 王定祥;李伶俐;冉光和;;金融資本形成與經(jīng)濟增長[J];經(jīng)濟研究;2009年09期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 劉柯杰;中國股票市場促進經(jīng)濟增長研究[D];復(fù)旦大學(xué);2003年

2 范學(xué)俊;金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長—1978—2005中國的實證檢驗[D];華東師范大學(xué);2007年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前6條

1 陸強;中國股票市場對國民經(jīng)濟增長作用機制研究[D];湖南大學(xué);2003年

2 楊秀;股票市場發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的實證研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2005年

3 康健;證券市場對我國經(jīng)濟增長的作用及其實證研究[D];湖南大學(xué);2005年

4 楊瓊;中國股票市場發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的實證分析[D];對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué);2006年

5 湯肖;中國股票市場發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長的相關(guān)性研究[D];武漢理工大學(xué);2008年

6 劉佳;我國股票市場對經(jīng)濟增長影響的實證研究[D];中南大學(xué);2008年

，

本文編號：1407106