【摘要】：中國目前是全球第一大能源消費國,這主要源于持續(xù)快速增長的中國經(jīng)濟,它帶來了能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的爆發(fā)式增長。中國在國際減排中的作用日益明顯,也將面臨來自國際各方面的壓力。中國有色金屬行業(yè)在基礎建設和經(jīng)濟增長中有著重要位置,是高能源消耗高排放的行業(yè)。相關的節(jié)能減排政策亟待制定,對該行業(yè)的二氧化碳排放研究有重要意義。本文對中國有色金屬行業(yè)2000-2011年數(shù)據(jù)進行了研究,探究了影響行業(yè)二氧化碳變化的主導因素,對各個省份降低排放業(yè)績作出了評價,并預測了未來有色金屬行業(yè)的碳排放降低潛力。首先,本文核算了有色金屬業(yè)各年的二氧化碳排放量,得出了有色金屬業(yè)2000-2011年的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放趨勢,二者均呈現(xiàn)快速上升趨勢,電力和原煤主導了行業(yè)能源消耗。基于核算數(shù)據(jù),運用平均對數(shù)迪氏指數(shù)法(LMDI)方法對有色金屬行業(yè)二氧化碳變化進行了分解分析,得出各個影響因素的貢獻率。結果顯示經(jīng)濟規(guī)模是導致2000-2011年期間有色金屬行業(yè)二氧化碳排放上升的最主要因素,能源強度則是導致排放下降的主導因素,能源結構和二氧化碳排放系數(shù)的影響較小。其次,由于各個省份的分解分析結果數(shù)量大,分析困難,本文建立了一個分類模型將所有省份分為五個類型,對各個省份的減排業(yè)績進行評估。分類結果表明,綜合兩個階段看河北的減排業(yè)績是最好的,重慶的減排業(yè)績是最差的。從改善的努力上看,遼寧、吉林和四川在十一五期間相比十五期間的改善是最大的,安徽和貴州在十一五相比與十五是惡化程度最嚴重的。最后,建立了基于LMDI的情景預測方法,利用此方法預測了2020年有色金屬行業(yè)的二氧化碳排放量,對各個因素在這期間變化的貢獻率進行量化,并進一步設定兩個情景用來預測有色金屬行業(yè)降低二氧化碳的潛力。結果表明,有色金屬行業(yè)二氧化碳排放量在不同情景下預測值存在較大差異,減排潛力巨大。而經(jīng)濟規(guī)模和能源強度仍然影響二氧化碳變化的驅(qū)動因素,所以控制經(jīng)濟規(guī)模擴張,提高能源強度時有色金屬行業(yè)今后減排工作的重點。通過以上三個部分的研究,我們可以了解有色金屬行業(yè)的二氧化碳排放特點,主要影響因素,未來發(fā)展趨勢及減排潛力。這些可以為政府確定行業(yè)降低二氧化碳排放目標和政策提供一定支持。同時,本文的研究思路和方法也可以推廣至其他行業(yè)及國家。
[Abstract]:China is now the world's largest energy consumer, largely due to its fast-growing economy, which has led to explosive growth in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. China's role in international emissions reduction is increasingly evident, and will also face international pressure. China's nonferrous metals industry plays an important role in infrastructure construction and economic growth. It is an industry with high energy consumption and high emissions. The related policies of energy saving and emission reduction need to be formulated urgently, which is of great significance to the research of carbon dioxide emissions in the industry. In this paper, the data of China's nonferrous metal industry from 2000 to 2011 are studied, and the main factors influencing the change of carbon dioxide in the industry are explored, and the performance of each province in reducing emissions is evaluated. And predicted the future nonferrous metal industry carbon emission reduction potential. Firstly, this paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of nonferrous metal industry in each year, and obtains the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission trend of non-ferrous metal industry from 2000 to 2011. Both of them show a rapid upward trend, and power and raw coal dominate the energy consumption of the industry. Based on the accounting data, the (LMDI) method is used to decompose and analyze the carbon dioxide changes in non-ferrous metal industry, and the contribution rate of each influencing factor is obtained. The results show that the economic scale is the most important factor leading to the increase of carbon dioxide emissions from 2000 to 2011, the energy intensity is the leading factor leading to the decrease of emissions, and the influence of energy structure and carbon dioxide emission coefficient is small. Secondly due to the large number of decomposition analysis results in each province and the difficulty of analysis this paper establishes a classification model to divide all provinces into five types to evaluate the emission reduction performance of each province. The classification results show that Hebei's emission reduction performance is the best and Chongqing's emission reduction performance is the worst. In terms of improvement efforts, Liaoning, Jilin and Sichuan had the greatest improvement in the period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, and Anhui and Guizhou had the most serious degree of deterioration compared with the Tenth Five-Year Plan. Finally, a scenario prediction method based on LMDI is established, which is used to predict the carbon dioxide emissions of non-ferrous metal industry in 2020, and to quantify the contribution rate of each factor during this period. Two scenarios are further developed to predict the potential of non-ferrous metals to reduce carbon dioxide. The results show that the carbon dioxide emissions of non-ferrous metal industry are different in different scenarios, and the emission reduction potential is huge. However, the economic scale and energy intensity still affect the driving factors of carbon dioxide change, so controlling the expansion of economic scale and increasing energy intensity are the key points of non-ferrous metal industry in the future emission reduction. Through the above three parts of the study, we can understand the characteristics of non-ferrous metal industry carbon dioxide emissions, the main factors, future development trends and emission reduction potential. These can provide some support for the government to set industry targets and policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. At the same time, the research ideas and methods can also be extended to other industries and countries.
【學位授予單位】：天津大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X322;F426.32

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本文編號：2160077