【摘要】：隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程的加快，高新技術(shù)制造業(yè)的發(fā)展也逐漸步入蓬勃發(fā)展，從數(shù)量和規(guī)模上都得到了增加和擴(kuò)大，市場(chǎng)給上市公司帶來(lái)機(jī)遇的同時(shí)也伴隨著不少挑戰(zhàn)，很多公司面臨著財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，尤其是高新技術(shù)制造業(yè)上市公司，公司數(shù)量多，為了適應(yīng)國(guó)家產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)，需要大量資金開發(fā)技術(shù)，發(fā)生重大財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能性大，一旦產(chǎn)生后果十分嚴(yán)重，不但會(huì)造成資金配置失效和精英管理混亂，甚至造成破產(chǎn)倒閉的后果。因此，構(gòu)建一個(gè)有效適用的財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，對(duì)高新技術(shù)制造業(yè)上市公司具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文首先依據(jù)樣本選擇原則確定了包括ST以及非ST公司樣本在內(nèi)的高新技術(shù)制造業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警標(biāo)本。依據(jù)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警指標(biāo)的選取原則初步選取了財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警指標(biāo)，并確立了以K-S正態(tài)性檢驗(yàn)、配對(duì)樣本T檢驗(yàn)和Mann-whitney U檢驗(yàn)在內(nèi)的檢驗(yàn)體系，，為財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型的建立奠定了基礎(chǔ)。通過(guò)對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型的構(gòu)建過(guò)程的研究，確定了KMO測(cè)試、因子提取、以及因子得分系數(shù)的獲得的數(shù)據(jù)處理過(guò)程，同時(shí)以上述因子分析所得因子建立了Logistic財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型，并完成了該模型的檢驗(yàn)，檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果良好，證明Logistic模型對(duì)此類企業(yè)有較好的預(yù)警性。并針對(duì)論文第3章和第4章研究結(jié)果，分析了敏感財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)所代表的財(cái)務(wù)能力，據(jù)此提出財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)防范相關(guān)建議，最后從財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)和模型檢驗(yàn)效果兩方面對(duì)文章整體結(jié)論進(jìn)行分析，提出財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，希望對(duì)該方面研究提供些參考。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the process of global economic integration, the development of high-tech manufacturing industry has gradually stepped into a vigorous development, in terms of quantity and scale has been increased and expanded, the market has brought opportunities to listed companies, but also accompanied by many challenges. Many companies are facing financial risks, especially those listed in the high-tech manufacturing industry, which have a large number of companies. In order to adapt to the upgrading of national industries, a large amount of capital is needed to develop technology, and the possibility of major financial risks is high. Once the consequence is very serious, it will not only lead to the failure of capital allocation and elite management confusion, but also to bankruptcy. Therefore, the construction of an effective and applicable financial crisis warning system has a very important practical significance for high-tech manufacturing listed companies. Firstly, according to the principle of sample selection, the financial early warning specimens of listed high-tech manufacturing companies including St and non-St companies are determined. According to the selection principle of financial early-warning index, the paper preliminarily selects the financial early-warning index, and establishes the test system of K-S normality test, matched sample T test and Mann-whitney U test, which lays a foundation for the establishment of financial early warning model. Through the research on the construction process of the financial early warning model, the data processing process of KMO test, factor extraction and factor score coefficient is determined. At the same time, the Logistic financial early warning model is established by the factors obtained from the above factor analysis. The test results show that the Logistic model has good early warning ability for this kind of enterprises. According to the research results of Chapter 3 and Chapter 4, this paper analyzes the financial ability represented by sensitive financial indicators, and puts forward some suggestions on how to prevent financial crisis. Finally, the paper analyzes the whole conclusion of the article from two aspects of financial index and model test effect, and puts forward the advantages and disadvantages of financial early warning model, hoping to provide some references for the research on this aspect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F426.4

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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