本文選題：LEAP模型 + 工業(yè)�。� 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和城市化水平的不斷提高,未來(lái)對(duì)能源的需求愈加強(qiáng)烈,高耗能、低效率等能源問(wèn)題已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重影響城市的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。大連市作為振興東北老工業(yè)基地的重要城市以及沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的前沿地帶,工業(yè)發(fā)展所需能源的消費(fèi)一直很大,但大連市大部分能源依賴進(jìn)口,供給缺口給大連市未來(lái)的發(fā)展帶來(lái)了巨大的壓力。因此,研究并建立適合大連市工業(yè)發(fā)展的能源需求模型有著很重要的意義。 本文首先分析了大連市近年來(lái)的能源消費(fèi)總量和增長(zhǎng)情況、分部門(mén)和分品種能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和能源利用效率現(xiàn)狀,總結(jié)出其發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)、特點(diǎn)及工業(yè)能源消費(fèi)所存在的主要問(wèn)題,研究結(jié)果為大連市工業(yè)能源需求模型的建立提供了實(shí)際的數(shù)據(jù)支撐。其次,研究影響工業(yè)行業(yè)發(fā)展的主要因素,應(yīng)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型分析大連市工業(yè)增加值占GDP的比重,得出的結(jié)果作為模型的主要參數(shù)。 在進(jìn)行上述研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文建立了基于自下而上方法的LEAP模型的能源分析模型,將情景分析方法所設(shè)定出的基準(zhǔn)情景、結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整情景、技術(shù)進(jìn)步情景和發(fā)展情景與計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)所預(yù)測(cè)的數(shù)據(jù)綜合到LEAP模型中,建立大連市工業(yè)能源LEAP模型。以2012年為工業(yè)能源LEAP模型的基準(zhǔn)期,預(yù)測(cè)了到2030年的大連市工業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)的能源需求總量,各工業(yè)分部門(mén)和各能源品種的需求量。模型預(yù)測(cè)得出的結(jié)果表明大連市仍存在工業(yè)能耗不斷增加,高耗能行業(yè)比重較大,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)滯后、能源結(jié)構(gòu)不合理等問(wèn)題。最后,在分析和總結(jié)的基礎(chǔ)上,從保障能源供應(yīng)、減少能源消費(fèi)總量和國(guó)際與各級(jí)政府政策制度等方面對(duì)大連市工業(yè)能源消耗提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。 本文以大連市工業(yè)為例,所采用的研究方法和建立的能源需求模型對(duì)其他城市或國(guó)家在不同行業(yè)或者整體上的能源需求方面的研究同樣具有借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and the improvement of urbanization level, the demand for energy becomes more and more intense in the future. Energy problems such as high energy consumption and low efficiency have seriously affected the sustainable development of cities. Dalian, as an important city for revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China and a frontier area for coastal economic development, has been consuming a large amount of energy for industrial development, but Dalian relies on imports for most of its energy resources. The shortage of supply has brought great pressure to the future development of Dalian City. Therefore, it is of great significance to study and establish energy demand model suitable for Dalian's industrial development. This paper first analyzes the total energy consumption and the growth of Dalian in recent years, the structure of energy consumption and the current situation of energy use efficiency in different sectors and varieties, and summarizes its development trend, characteristics and main problems existing in industrial energy consumption. The results provide practical data support for the establishment of industrial energy demand model in Dalian. Secondly, the main factors affecting the development of industrial industry are studied. The econometric model is used to analyze the proportion of industrial added value to GDP in Dalian, and the results are taken as the main parameters of the model. On the basis of the above research, the energy analysis model based on the bottom-up method of leap model is established in this paper. The benchmark scenario, the structural adjustment scenario, which are developed by the scenario analysis method, are put forward in this paper. The situation of technological progress and development and the data predicted by econometrics are integrated into the leap model and the industrial energy LEAP model of Dalian is established. Taking 2012 as the base period of the industrial energy LEAP model, the total energy demand of the industrial industry in Dalian by 2030, the demand of all industrial subsectors and various kinds of energy are forecasted. The results of the model prediction show that there are still some problems in Dalian, such as the increasing of industrial energy consumption, the large proportion of high-energy consuming industries, the lag of industrial structure, the unreasonable energy structure, and so on. Finally, on the basis of analysis and summary, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on Dalian industrial energy consumption from the aspects of ensuring energy supply, reducing the total amount of energy consumption and the policies and systems of international and government at all levels. Taking Dalian industry as an example, the research method and the energy demand model established in this paper are also useful for other cities or countries to study energy demand in different industries or as a whole.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F424.1

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本文編號(hào)：2034125