本文選題：低碳經(jīng)濟(jì) + Logistic模型��； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為世界最大的碳排放國，中國面臨迫切的減排要求。電力行業(yè)是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要支柱，以化石能源為主要燃料的火電行業(yè)，能源消耗大，污染排放量高，CO2排放量占全國碳排放總量的50%以上。所以，降低能源消耗、減少碳排放、積極發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)是中國火電企業(yè)未來發(fā)展的必經(jīng)之路。 對(duì)中國火電企業(yè)碳排放進(jìn)行計(jì)算和預(yù)測。根據(jù)中國火電企業(yè)各類化石能源消費(fèi)量和IPCC2006碳排放系數(shù)，采用清單法對(duì)1996-2011年中國火電企業(yè)的碳排放總量進(jìn)行計(jì)算。在此基礎(chǔ)上，采用Logistic模型對(duì)2012-2020年中國火電企業(yè)碳排放量進(jìn)行預(yù)測，分析結(jié)果說明在保持現(xiàn)有的發(fā)展規(guī)律不變的情況下，中國火電企業(yè)的碳排放將持續(xù)高速增長。 分析中國火電企業(yè)碳排放的影響因素�；痣姰a(chǎn)業(yè)管理方面的原因是電力需求的不斷攀升和煤炭是火電企業(yè)最主要的燃料；火電技術(shù)方面是火電機(jī)組規(guī)模小、單位發(fā)電能耗高和污染物排放量高；宏觀政策方面是對(duì)火電企業(yè)排污監(jiān)管的碳排放約束機(jī)制和碳稅體系目前仍處于空缺狀態(tài)。 分析中國火電企業(yè)發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的途徑和有效性�；痣姰a(chǎn)業(yè)管理方面，“上大壓小”政策對(duì)于降低碳排放有著顯著效果，但同時(shí)引發(fā)盲目投資等弊端；國家強(qiáng)制安裝減排設(shè)備，給企業(yè)帶來高額的成本負(fù)擔(dān)；火電技術(shù)方面，整體煤氣化聯(lián)合循環(huán)技術(shù)成本高、水平不成熟，尚不具備商業(yè)推廣的可能；國家政策方面，碳交易市場雖處于初級(jí)階段，卻是火電企業(yè)發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要平臺(tái)；目前碳金融仍處于萌芽階段，但發(fā)展?jié)摿薮蟆?對(duì)中國火電企業(yè)發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)提出建議，火電企業(yè)管理方面，，提出競價(jià)上網(wǎng)，發(fā)揮大機(jī)組的優(yōu)勢(shì)；保留一定數(shù)量的小機(jī)組，優(yōu)化火電產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)；控制煤炭的消費(fèi)數(shù)量；火電技術(shù)方面，提出加大技術(shù)改造提高效率和探索發(fā)展碳捕集和碳封存技術(shù)；國家政策方面，提出完善碳交易市場機(jī)制、為碳交易構(gòu)建良好金融環(huán)境和適時(shí)開征碳稅。
[Abstract]:As the world's largest carbon emitter, China is facing urgent emission reduction requirements. Power industry is an important pillar of China's economy. Fossil energy as the main fuel of the thermal power industry, energy consumption, high pollution emissions of CO2 emissions accounted for more than 50% of the total carbon emissions in China. Therefore, reducing energy consumption, reducing carbon emissions and actively developing low-carbon economy is the only way for the future development of Chinese thermal power enterprises. The carbon emissions of thermal power enterprises in China are calculated and forecasted. According to the consumption of fossil energy and the carbon emission coefficient of IPCC2006, the total amount of carbon emission from 1996 to 2011 was calculated by using the inventory method. On this basis, the Logistic model is used to forecast the carbon emissions of thermal power enterprises in China from 2012 to 2020. The results show that the carbon emissions of thermal power enterprises in China will continue to increase at a high speed under the condition of keeping the current development law unchanged. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of carbon emission from thermal power enterprises in China. The reasons for thermal power industry management are the rising power demand and coal being the most important fuel for thermal power enterprises, the small scale of thermal power units, high energy consumption per unit generation and high pollutant emission in thermal power technology. The macro policy is that the carbon emission restraint mechanism and carbon tax system are still vacant. This paper analyzes the approaches and effectiveness of developing low carbon economy in Chinese thermal power enterprises. In the management of thermal power industry, the policy of "big pressure and small pressure" has significant effect on reducing carbon emissions, but at the same time it leads to blind investment and other drawbacks; the compulsory installation of emission reduction equipment by the state brings a high cost burden to enterprises; and in the aspect of thermal power technology, The integrated coal gasification combined cycle technology has high cost and immature level, so it does not have the possibility of commercial promotion. In the aspect of national policy, the carbon trading market is in the primary stage, but it is an important platform for thermal power enterprises to develop low-carbon economy. At present, carbon finance is still in its infancy, but the development potential is huge. Some suggestions are put forward for the development of low-carbon economy in China's thermal power enterprises. In the aspect of management of thermal power enterprises, bidding for the Internet is put forward to give full play to the advantages of large units, to keep a certain number of small units, to optimize the industrial structure of thermal power, and to control the consumption of coal. In the aspect of thermal power technology, it is proposed to improve the efficiency of technical transformation and explore the development of carbon capture and sequestration technology. In the aspect of national policy, it is proposed to perfect the carbon trading market mechanism, to build a good financial environment for carbon trading and to levy carbon tax at the right time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F424.1;F426.61

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本文編號(hào)：2021501