本文選題：調(diào)味品行業(yè) + 行業(yè)增長率分解　； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：主要內(nèi)容 本文主要以中國繼續(xù)推進城鎮(zhèn)化和推行人均收入倍增計劃兩大趨勢作為邏輯起點,闡述了推動調(diào)味品行業(yè)增長的因素以及行業(yè)未來的集中趨勢,并得出了調(diào)味品行業(yè)存在消費升級所帶來的投資機會,然后從戰(zhàn)略、核心競爭力,財務(wù)三方面綜合分析和對比該行業(yè)內(nèi)的幾家上市公司并總結(jié)出行業(yè)龍頭海天味業(yè)所擁有的核心競爭優(yōu)勢,最后揭示投資該公司存在的一些風(fēng)險點。 主要內(nèi)容 首先本文對食品飲料行業(yè)進行細分成7個子行業(yè),并且從盈利性、成長性、穩(wěn)定性、是否擁有心智資源和投資標的5個維度對細分行業(yè)進行對比分析,確立食品飲料細分子行業(yè)的投資價值；然后再將調(diào)味品行業(yè)進行細分,并從增長率、毛利率、流動資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)速度3個方面比較調(diào)味品細分子行業(yè),并且從生產(chǎn)工藝和消費速度來解釋它們之間的差異；再次利用定性和定量的方式對調(diào)味品行業(yè)增速進行了分析；此外,還引進行業(yè)集中度指標刻畫調(diào)味品行業(yè)現(xiàn)在的集中狀況以及未來的集中趨勢；最后從戰(zhàn)略、運營、財務(wù)3個方面分析調(diào)味品相關(guān)上市公司,揭示行業(yè)中龍頭企業(yè)的優(yōu)勢以及優(yōu)勢的來源。 文章結(jié)構(gòu) 在食品飲料行業(yè)中受益于消費升級的子行業(yè)較多,但并不是每個子行業(yè)都存在這樣的投資機會,本文第一部分主要是通過是否擁有心智資源、盈利性、成長性、穩(wěn)定性、是否擁有可投資標的五個維度來橫向比較了食品飲料行業(yè)中七個細分子行業(yè)的投資時點和機會,從而總結(jié)出調(diào)味品行業(yè)作為具有中國特色、消費穩(wěn)定的行業(yè),在當今大眾消費的潮流下是最具有投資價值食品飲料行業(yè)之一 不過從普通人的消費情況來看,調(diào)味品作為一種必需品早已滲透至千家萬戶,其持續(xù)增長性為投資者所擔心,為打消投資者疑慮,本文從兩個方面來分析調(diào)味品行業(yè)的增長情況,其中本文第二部分主要是對調(diào)味品行業(yè)再進一步細分,剔除了處于衰退期的味精行業(yè)增速,調(diào)味品行業(yè)被掩蓋的增速得以重現(xiàn),增速超出未剔除時。而本文第三部分則從調(diào)味品三個下游渠道來分析行業(yè)增速情況,其中餐飲渠道的調(diào)味品消費主要是受益于城鎮(zhèn)化推進過程中,城鎮(zhèn)居民社交用餐增加,經(jīng)過模型測算該渠道未來五年消費增速在11%以上；而家庭渠道的消費增加則源于傳統(tǒng)調(diào)味品消費從有味向健康轉(zhuǎn)變所帶的產(chǎn)品升級和其他新型的調(diào)味品品類推出,根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局發(fā)布的城鎮(zhèn)居民不同收入階層消費調(diào)味品支出數(shù)據(jù)推算,家庭渠道人均消費調(diào)味品支出只少還存在30%的提升空間,人均收入倍增計劃將為調(diào)味品消費升級提供購買力；而在食品加工渠道消費增速則來源于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展過程中,人們生活節(jié)奏加快。綜合來看,未來五年調(diào)味品下游消費以10%以上繼續(xù)增長將是大概率事件。 此外,調(diào)味品行業(yè)相對其他食品飲料子行業(yè)有其獨特之處。調(diào)味品行業(yè)生產(chǎn)區(qū)域分散和多品類導(dǎo)致了其行業(yè)集中度遠遠低于其他食品飲料子行業(yè),本文第四部分對調(diào)味品行業(yè)的競爭格局和行業(yè)集中度低的現(xiàn)象進行了分析,現(xiàn)今我國調(diào)味品生產(chǎn)相對落后,主要以地方生產(chǎn)為主,只有少部分現(xiàn)代化、全國化的調(diào)味品生產(chǎn)企業(yè),但是未來隨著行業(yè)標準和衛(wèi)生要求的提高,大量不合格作坊式企業(yè)將會被擠出市場、競爭的加劇將會使得大量虧損的中小企業(yè)被迫退出行業(yè)、再加上龍頭企業(yè)擴展計劃的實施,未來行業(yè)集中度將會大幅度提高。因此,行業(yè)未來的整合和并購也將會是一個潛在的投資機會。 本文第五部分從行業(yè)層面分析下降到公司層面分析,對各家上市的生產(chǎn)醬油為主的調(diào)味品企業(yè)進行了對比分析,其中海天味業(yè)作為調(diào)味品行業(yè)的龍頭企業(yè)所擁有的優(yōu)勢是其他競爭對手所難以企及,其擁有的競爭優(yōu)勢主要在利用工藝和技術(shù)優(yōu)勢保證產(chǎn)出高質(zhì)量的醬油；全自動化的生產(chǎn)線和用料的選擇帶來成本上優(yōu)勢；專注調(diào)味品、醬油成為中國醬油第一品牌,在消費者心中擁有物美價廉醬油的字眼這三個方面。這些優(yōu)勢為海天帶來持續(xù)不斷穩(wěn)定的現(xiàn)金流和高于同行的盈利能力。 最后揭示投資海天味業(yè)存在的短期和長期風(fēng)險,其中短期風(fēng)險來源于原材料采購的風(fēng)險和競爭對手搶占中高端市場的風(fēng)險,前者由于白糖價格處于下降通道,因此原材料成本價格對生產(chǎn)成本的影響不大,而另外一個短期風(fēng)險,海天也已經(jīng)采取對策,推出海天“零添加”子品牌應(yīng)對中高端市場的競爭。而長期風(fēng)險則在于公司品牌過度延伸和醬油消費日趨飽和的風(fēng)險。 創(chuàng)新之處 第一：在行業(yè)分析過程中,本文獨立構(gòu)建了如何評價食品飲料行業(yè)是否受益于消費升級的評價體系,解釋了為什么投資調(diào)味品行業(yè)的理由。 第二：深刻的解析了調(diào)味品行業(yè),特別是除味精以外的調(diào)味品行業(yè)其未來的增長動力,并且借助模型獨立測算行業(yè)增速。 第三：在公司分析層面上,獨到之處在于對海天味業(yè)核心競爭力的挖掘,從經(jīng)營和財務(wù)上分析海天在產(chǎn)品質(zhì)和價上優(yōu)于競爭對手的原因,并且引入定位理論對海天品牌溢價進行了分析和量化。
[Abstract]:primary coverage
This paper, based on the two trends of China's continuing urbanization and the implementation of the per capita income multiplication plan, expounds the factors that promote the growth of the condiment industry and the future concentration trend of the industry, and draws the investment opportunity brought by the consumption upgrading of the condiment industry, and then from the strategy, the core competitiveness, and the financial three party. It analyzes and compares several listed companies in the industry and summarizes the core competitive advantages of the industry's leading sea sky flavor industry, and finally reveals some of the risk points that exist in the company.
primary coverage
First of all, this paper subdivides the food and beverage industry into 7 sub industries, and compares the profit, growth, stability, 5 dimensions of mental resources and investment standards, and establishes the investment value of the fine molecular industry of food and beverage, and then subdivides the condiment industry into subdivision, and from the growth rate and Maori. Compared with the 3 aspects of the turnover rate of the flow assets, the fine molecular industry of the condiment is compared, and the differences between them are explained from the production process and the consumption speed. The growth of the condiment industry is analyzed by the qualitative and quantitative methods. And the future concentration trend; finally from the strategic, operational, financial 3 aspects of the analysis of seasoning related listed companies, to reveal the advantages of the leading enterprises in the industry and the source of advantages.
Structure of article
In the food and beverage industry, there are more sub industries that benefit from the consumption upgrade, but not every sub industry has such investment opportunities. The first part of this paper is mainly through the five dimensions of the mental resources, profitability, growth, stability, and whether there is a standard of investment to compare the seven finer in the food and beverage industry. The time point and opportunity of investment in the molecular industry concludes that the condiment industry is an industry with Chinese characteristics and stable consumption, and is one of the most valuable food and beverage industries under the current trend of mass consumption.
However, from the consumption situation of ordinary people, seasoning as a necessity has already permeated thousands of households, its continuing growth is a concern for investors. In order to dispel investors' doubts, this article analyzes the growth of the condiment industry from two aspects. The second parts of this article are further subdivided into the condiment industry, and are further subdivided. In addition to the growth of the monosodium glutamate industry in the recession period, the growth rate of the condiment industry is reappeared, and the growth rate is beyond the non rejection. The third part of this paper analyzes the industry growth rate from the three downstream channels of the condiment, in which the consumption of the condiments of the catering channels is mainly benefited from the urbanization process and the urban residents' social meals. The consumption growth of the channel in the next five years is above 11%, and the increase of the consumption of family channels is derived from the upgrading of the traditional condiment consumption from the taste to health and the introduction of other new types of condiments. According to the National Statistics Bureau, the consumption of seasoning expenditure in different income groups of urban residents has been issued by the National Bureau of statistics. According to the data, the expenditure of household consumption per capita consumption of condiments is only less than 30%, and the per capita income multiplication plan will provide purchasing power for the upgrading of condiment consumption; while the growth rate of food processing channels is derived from the pace of people's life in the process of economic development. In a comprehensive view, the downstream consumption of seasoning will be consumed in the next five years. More than 10% growth will be a big probability event.
In addition, the condiment industry has its unique features relative to other food and beverage industries. The production area dispersion and multiple categories in the condiment industry have led to its industry concentration far below the other food and beverage industries. The fourth part of this paper analyzes the competition pattern of the condiment industry and the moderate low concentration of the industry. The production of taste products is relatively backward, mainly with local production, only a few modernized and nation-wide condiments production enterprises. But in the future, with the improvement of industry standards and health requirements, a large number of unqualified workshop type enterprises will be squeezed out of the market. The intensification of competition will make the large and loss small and medium sized enterprises withdraw from the industry and add again. In the future, the future integration and merger will be a potential investment opportunity.
In the fifth part, from the analysis of the industry level analysis to the company level, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the seasoning enterprises which are mainly listed in the production of soy sauce. The advantage of the sea sky flavor industry as the leading enterprise of the condiment industry is difficult to reach the other competitors, and its competitive advantage is mainly in the use of technology. And technical advantages to ensure high quality soy sauce; the selection of fully automated production lines and materials bring cost advantages; concentrate on seasoning, soy sauce becomes the first brand of Chinese soy sauce, and there are three aspects of Chinese soy sauce in the consumer's heart. These advantages bring steady and steady cash flow and high to the sea. The profitability of the peers.
Finally, the short-term and long-term risks are revealed, in which the short-term risk comes from the risk of raw material procurement and the risk that competitors seize the middle and high end markets. The former is in a decline in the price of sugar, so the cost of raw materials has little effect on the cost of production. After taking countermeasures, the "zero added" sub brand of sea sky should be introduced to meet the competition in the middle and high end markets. The long-term risk lies in the risk of excessive brand extension of the company and the increasing saturation of soy sauce consumption.
Innovation
First: in the process of industry analysis, this article independently constructs the evaluation system of how the food and beverage industry has benefited from the consumption upgrade, and explains why the industry is invested in the flavoring industry.
Second: deep analysis of the seasoning industry, especially the flavoring industry except monosodium glutamate, its future growth momentum, and the use of model independent measurement of industry growth.
Third: at the level of company analysis, the uniqueness lies in the excavation of the core competitiveness of the sea sky flavor industry, the analysis and quantification of the premium of the sea sky brand from the management and financial analysis of the quality and price of the sea sky in the quality and price of the sea.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.82

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號：1992922