本文選題：制藥行業(yè) + 上市公司��； 參考：《南華大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著世界范圍內(nèi)，經(jīng)濟(jì)融合的進(jìn)一步加快，企業(yè)在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中面臨著越來(lái)越大的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力，隨時(shí)都有發(fā)生破產(chǎn)，倒閉的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。建立合理有效的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型有助于企業(yè)及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)營(yíng)過(guò)程中出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題，加強(qiáng)經(jīng)營(yíng)管理，提高獲利能力。隨著我國(guó)醫(yī)療體制改革的進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)，制藥行業(yè)在面臨著空前發(fā)展機(jī)遇的同時(shí)，也面臨著巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。國(guó)外企業(yè)擠壓市場(chǎng)，制藥成本上升，藥品生產(chǎn)規(guī)則的嚴(yán)格都在大環(huán)境中給制藥企業(yè)的發(fā)展帶來(lái)了壓力。同時(shí)制藥行業(yè)本身就是高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，高投入，高回報(bào)的行業(yè)，因此，針對(duì)制藥行業(yè)建立財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型，及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)經(jīng)營(yíng)中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，提高其獲利能力，是很必要的。 本文從制藥行業(yè)本身的特點(diǎn)出發(fā)利用主觀邏輯與客觀實(shí)踐相結(jié)合，實(shí)證分析與規(guī)范分析相結(jié)合的方法，利用spss19.0軟件構(gòu)建了針對(duì)于制藥行業(yè)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型。本文一共分為六個(gè)部分。第一部分,主要介紹了文章的研究背景，寫(xiě)作意義，對(duì)于前人的研究成果進(jìn)行評(píng)述，，明確了文章的思路和創(chuàng)新之處。第二部分,對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的基礎(chǔ)理論部分進(jìn)行了介紹。第三部分，對(duì)我國(guó)制藥行業(yè)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析，明確了我國(guó)制藥行業(yè)的自身特點(diǎn)和其特殊的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。第四部分，選取了制藥行業(yè)深圳，上海兩大證交所的228個(gè)上市公司作為研究樣本，分別從償債能力，營(yíng)運(yùn)能力，盈利能力，成長(zhǎng)能力，現(xiàn)金流量和行業(yè)指標(biāo)6個(gè)方面，選取了24個(gè)指標(biāo)，通過(guò)非參數(shù)檢驗(yàn)的方法剔除了不相關(guān)指標(biāo)建立了針對(duì)制藥行業(yè)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系。第五部分，通過(guò)因子分析的方法對(duì)剩余指標(biāo)提取主成分，并構(gòu)建了屬于制藥行業(yè)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型。第六部分，對(duì)文章進(jìn)行歸納和總結(jié)，對(duì)不足之處提出展望和建議。 研究結(jié)果表明，本文所建立的制藥行業(yè)上市公司（t-1）年和（t-2）年的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型有著較高的預(yù)測(cè)水平，能很好的預(yù)測(cè)企業(yè)危機(jī)的發(fā)生，同時(shí)隨著危機(jī)年份的接近，模型的預(yù)測(cè)水平提高了。在剔除了特殊行業(yè)指標(biāo)后模型預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確度要低于有特殊行業(yè)指標(biāo)的模型所預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確度。這說(shuō)明特殊的行業(yè)指標(biāo)的加入有利于制藥行業(yè)上市公司更好的進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)測(cè)。
[Abstract]:With the further acceleration of economic integration in the world, enterprises are facing more and more competitive pressure in the process of economic development, and there is the risk of bankruptcy and bankruptcy at any time.The establishment of a reasonable and effective financial early warning model is helpful for the enterprises to find out the problems in the process of operation, strengthen the management, and improve the profitability.With the further development of China's medical system reform, pharmaceutical industry is facing unprecedented development opportunities, but also facing huge risks.Foreign enterprises squeeze the market, pharmaceutical costs rise, and the strict rules of drug production bring pressure to the development of pharmaceutical enterprises.At the same time, the pharmaceutical industry itself is a high-risk, high-investment, high-return industry, so it is necessary to establish a financial early-warning model for the pharmaceutical industry, to timely discover the risks in operation and improve its profitability.Based on the characteristics of pharmaceutical industry, this paper uses the combination of subjective logic and objective practice, the combination of empirical analysis and normative analysis, and the use of spss19.0 software to build a financial early warning model for listed companies in pharmaceutical industry.This paper is divided into six parts.The first part mainly introduces the research background and writing significance of the article, reviews the previous research results, and clarifies the ideas and innovations of the article.The second part introduces the basic theory of financial early warning.In the third part, the author analyzes the financial risk of the listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry of our country, and clarifies the characteristics and special financial risks of the pharmaceutical industry in our country.In the fourth part, 228 listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai are selected as the research samples, from six aspects of solvency, operating ability, profitability, growth ability, cash flow and industry indicators, respectively.In this paper, 24 indexes are selected, and the financial early warning index system for listed companies in pharmaceutical industry is established by eliminating irrelevant indexes by non-parametric test.In the fifth part, the principal components of the remaining indexes are extracted by factor analysis, and the financial early-warning model of listed companies in pharmaceutical industry is constructed.The sixth part sums up and summarizes the article, and puts forward the prospect and suggestion to the deficiency.The results show that the financial early-warning models of listed pharmaceutical companies in this paper have a high level of prediction, and can well predict the occurrence of corporate crisis, and with the approaching of the crisis year, the financial early-warning model of the pharmaceutical industry listed companies in this paper has a high level of prediction, at the same time, with the approaching of the crisis year,The prediction level of the model has improved.The prediction accuracy of the model is lower than that of the model with special industry index.This shows that the addition of specific industry indicators is conducive to better financial crisis prediction for listed companies in the pharmaceutical industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.72;F406.7;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張友棠;財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)管理研究[J];財(cái)會(huì)通訊;2004年01期

2 楊保安,季海,溫金祥;基于ANN與ES混合系統(tǒng)的銀行貸款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究[J];東華大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2003年01期

3 全春光;程曉娟;;企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警指標(biāo)篩選探究[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2010年08期

4 朱祥德;;中國(guó)企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)管理研究[J];中國(guó)管理信息化;2009年09期

5 孫靜;張子健;;傳統(tǒng)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警的指標(biāo)與現(xiàn)金流指標(biāo)的整合研究[J];中國(guó)管理信息化;2009年09期

6 王艷華;陳昌明;;制藥企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警實(shí)證研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究導(dǎo)刊;2010年31期

7 周首華,楊濟(jì)華,王平;論財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的預(yù)警分析——F分?jǐn)?shù)模式[J];會(huì)計(jì)研究;1996年08期

8 陳靜;上市公司財(cái)務(wù)惡化預(yù)測(cè)的實(shí)證分析[J];會(huì)計(jì)研究;1999年04期

9 司林;;基于公司治理機(jī)制的財(cái)務(wù)困境成本分析[J];市場(chǎng)周刊(理論研究);2009年03期

10 林西;周永生;;制藥企業(yè)危機(jī)預(yù)警的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2006年17期

本文編號(hào)：1755401