發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-12 19:06

  本文選題：財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型 + Logistic回歸分析��； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2008年碩士論文

【摘要】： 公司財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的預(yù)測(cè)研究在國內(nèi)外都受到高度關(guān)注,它不但具有較高的學(xué)術(shù)價(jià)值,而且具有巨大的應(yīng)用價(jià)值。隨著我國資本市場(chǎng)的快速發(fā)展,上市公司的各種問題也逐漸暴露出來,上市公司出現(xiàn)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的案例也越來越多。在這種背景下,財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)已成為企業(yè)相關(guān)利益者需預(yù)測(cè)并應(yīng)對(duì)的重要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一,建立一個(gè)反應(yīng)靈敏的財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警機(jī)制,對(duì)于經(jīng)營者防范財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī),投資者和債權(quán)人保護(hù)自身利益,證券監(jiān)管部門監(jiān)控上市公司質(zhì)量和股票市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),都具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文以深滬兩市2004-2007年首次因財(cái)務(wù)原因被ST的上市公司及與其配對(duì)的健康公司為樣本,選取他們的24項(xiàng)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo),構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型,并利用此模型對(duì)2008年即將被ST的昌河股份(600372)進(jìn)行案例分析,檢驗(yàn)預(yù)警模型的有效性。 首先,闡述進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型實(shí)證研究的背景和意義,通過文獻(xiàn)研究,比較國內(nèi)外研究成果,提出本文的研究思路和方法。 其次,通過文獻(xiàn)研究,挑選出在以前的研究中被證明預(yù)測(cè)有效的24項(xiàng)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)為研究起點(diǎn),運(yùn)用SPSS軟件對(duì)樣本公司進(jìn)行Logistic回歸分析,構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型,并通過檢驗(yàn)確定預(yù)警模型的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率和錯(cuò)判率。 然后,以昌河股份為例,利用財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型對(duì)其進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)分析,并深入研究該公司的背景及財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)形成原因。 最后,總結(jié)本文的貢獻(xiàn)與不足。
[Abstract]:The prediction of corporate financial crisis is highly concerned at home and abroad. It not only has high academic value, but also has great application value.With the rapid development of China's capital market, various problems of listed companies are gradually exposed, and there are more and more cases of financial crisis of listed companies.In this context, financial crisis has become one of the important risks to be predicted and dealt with by the relevant stakeholders of the enterprise. The establishment of a responsive financial crisis warning mechanism will prevent financial crisis for operators.It is of great practical significance for investors and creditors to protect their own interests and to monitor the quality of listed companies and stock market risks.Based on the sample of listed companies with St for financial reasons and their matched health companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets from 2004 to 2007, this paper selects their 24 financial indicators to build a financial early warning model.The model is used to analyze the case of Changhe stock in 2008, and to test the effectiveness of the early warning model.Firstly, the background and significance of empirical research on financial early-warning model are expounded. Through literature research, the research results at home and abroad are compared, and the research ideas and methods of this paper are put forward.Secondly, through literature research, 24 financial indexes proved to be effective in the previous research are selected as the starting point of the study. The Logistic regression analysis of the sample company is carried out by using SPSS software, and the financial early warning model is constructed.And through the test to determine the prediction accuracy and error rate of the early warning model.Then, taking Changhe shares as an example, the financial early-warning model is used to forecast and analyze it, and the background of the company and the causes of the financial crisis are deeply studied.Finally, the contributions and shortcomings of this paper are summarized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2008
【分類號(hào)】：F406.7;F224

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 蘭園生;我國制造業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警分期模型的數(shù)量研究[D];西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2010年

2 張U，

本文編號(hào)：1741028