本文關(guān)鍵詞： 能源價格 中國經(jīng)濟 結(jié)構(gòu)效應 總量效應 面板數(shù)據(jù)模型　出處：《中國礦業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：能源作為我國的上游產(chǎn)業(yè)，其價格波動對中國經(jīng)濟造成深遠的影響。科學的揭示能源價格波動對中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的影響，對我國經(jīng)濟平衡穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展及各區(qū)域相關(guān)政策建議的選擇具有積極的意義。 本文先對能源價格波動對經(jīng)濟的影響進行理論分析，再對國內(nèi)外能源價格波動對經(jīng)濟影響的研究進行總結(jié)與回顧，然后進一步闡明要從總量效應和結(jié)構(gòu)效應兩個視角來研究能源價格波動對經(jīng)濟的影響。在總量效應的視角下，主要研究能源價格波動對地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值和物價水平的影響，在結(jié)構(gòu)效應的視角下，主要研究能源價格波動對消費水平、投資水平和出口的影響。在此研究框架下，本文利用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對此問題進行研究。 本文的創(chuàng)新點主要有兩個，一是研究視角的創(chuàng)新。通過對以往文獻的研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)大部分學者在研究能源價格波動對經(jīng)濟的影響時，都是在總量效應的視角下研究的。本文借鑒于以往學者的研究成果，分別在總量效應和結(jié)構(gòu)效應兩個視角下來研究能源價格波動對經(jīng)濟的影響，豐富了研究能源價格波動對經(jīng)濟影響的內(nèi)容。二是研究內(nèi)容的創(chuàng)新。將能源價格波動對經(jīng)濟的影響運用到區(qū)域的差異性研究，從研究內(nèi)容上來看，更接近于實際。這與目前國內(nèi)學者主要研究能源價格波動對全國或某一區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的影響相比，有較大的區(qū)別和新穎之處。為各區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟政策選擇提供借鑒意義。 本文的研究結(jié)論：通過理論上的分析，能源價格波動對地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的影響是負的，對物價總水平的影響是正的，對消費、投資和出口水平的影響也是負的。而實證所得的結(jié)論和理論并不完全一致，實證結(jié)果表明：能源價格波動對地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值、消費、投資和出口都有正的影響，這一結(jié)論和理論分析的結(jié)果恰恰相反。對物價水平的影響也是正的，這和理論分析的結(jié)果是一致的。通過對文獻的研究及結(jié)合中國的實際情況，對這種結(jié)果進行了解釋。另外，實證研究結(jié)果還表明，能源價格對東中西部地區(qū)的影響是有差異性的。從總量效應的視角下分析，能源價格波動對東部地區(qū)的地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的影響最大，中部次之，西部最小。對中部地區(qū)的物價水平的影響最大，東部次之，西部最小。從結(jié)構(gòu)效應的視角下分析，能源價格波動對東部地區(qū)的消費水平的影響最大，中部次之，，西部最小。對中部地區(qū)的投資水平的影響最大，西部次之，東部最小。從出口的角度來說，對東部地區(qū)的出口水平的影響最大，中部次之，西部最小。這和各個地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展程度和中國政策扶持的方向性有關(guān)系。 最后給出相關(guān)的政策建議。根據(jù)實證的結(jié)果，立足于全國經(jīng)濟平衡穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，根據(jù)所得出的結(jié)論，對不同的區(qū)域提出不同的相關(guān)經(jīng)濟政策，對相關(guān)的政府部門也給出了幾點政策建議。
[Abstract]:As the upstream industry of our country, the price fluctuation of energy has a profound impact on Chinese economy, and scientifically reveals the impact of energy price fluctuation on China's regional economy. It is of positive significance to the balanced and stable development of China's economy and the choice of relevant policy suggestions in various regions. In this paper, the impact of energy price fluctuations on the economy is theoretically analyzed, and then the domestic and foreign energy price fluctuations on the economic impact are summarized and reviewed. Then it is further expounded that the impact of energy price fluctuation on the economy should be studied from the perspective of aggregate effect and structural effect. This paper mainly studies the impact of energy price fluctuation on regional GDP and price level. From the perspective of structural effect, it mainly studies the impact of energy price fluctuation on consumption level. The influence of investment level and export. In this research framework, this paper uses panel data model to study this problem. There are two main innovation points in this paper, one is the innovation of research perspective. Through the research of previous literature, we find that most of the scholars are studying the impact of energy price fluctuations on the economy. This paper draws lessons from the previous scholars' research results and studies the impact of energy price fluctuation on the economy from the perspective of aggregate effect and structural effect respectively. Enriched the study of energy price fluctuations on the economic impact of content. Second, the content of innovation. The impact of energy price fluctuations on the economy is applied to regional differences, from the perspective of research content. This is closer to reality. This is compared with the current domestic scholars mainly study the impact of energy price fluctuations on the national or a regional economy. There are great differences and novelty. It provides reference for the economic policy choice of various regions. The conclusion of this paper: through theoretical analysis, the impact of energy price fluctuation on regional GDP is negative, on the overall level of prices is positive, on consumption. The effect of investment and export level is also negative. But the conclusion and theory are not completely consistent. The empirical results show that the fluctuation of energy prices has a positive impact on regional GDP, consumption, investment and exports. This conclusion is contrary to the result of theoretical analysis. The influence on price level is also positive, which is consistent with the result of theoretical analysis. In addition, the empirical results also show that the impact of energy prices on the eastern, central and western regions is different. From the perspective of the total effect analysis. Energy price fluctuations have the greatest impact on the regional GDP in the eastern region, followed by the central region, the western region, the biggest impact on the price level in the central region, followed by the eastern region. From the perspective of structural effect, the energy price fluctuation has the greatest impact on the consumption level in the eastern region, followed by the central region, the western region, the largest impact on the investment level in the central region, followed by the western region. From the point of view of export, the influence on the export level of the eastern region is the greatest, followed by the central region and the west, which is related to the degree of economic development of each region and the directionality of China's policy support. According to the empirical results, based on the balanced and stable development of the national economy, according to the conclusions, put forward different relevant economic policies for different regions. Some policy suggestions are also given to the relevant government departments.
【學位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F426.2;F764;F127;F224

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