本文關鍵詞：匯率變動對廣東省制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的影響　出處：《華南理工大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 人民幣匯率 廣東省制造業(yè) 產(chǎn)業(yè)結構 傳導機制 OLS模型

【摘要】：匯率政策是國家宏觀經(jīng)濟中重要的調節(jié)方式。改革開放以來，我國經(jīng)濟屢屢出現(xiàn)內、外部均衡的沖突，而且不斷引發(fā)涉及匯率制度的爭議。在人民幣匯率處于振蕩上升階段，社會資源結構面臨巨大壓力的背景下，深入研究匯率變動對制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的影響對我國實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟內、外均衡發(fā)展具有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。近年來人民幣的大幅升值已經(jīng)對我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展帶來嚴重沖擊，這些沖擊將直接影響廣東省制造業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構。在此背景下，研究人民幣升值對廣東省制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整的影響，不但能夠將人民幣升值影響制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的機理清晰化，還能為政府進一步發(fā)展、調整制造業(yè)結構提供政策建議。 本文先闡述國內外專家學者對匯率變化與制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構之間的關系、所進行的研究以及得出的觀點，并對以上觀點進行概括總結，闡述了名義匯率、實際匯率、制造業(yè)等相關概念，同時，介紹了匯率變動影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的相關理論，包括總需求理論、資本代替勞動效應、馬歇爾-勒納條件等，然后以這些理論為分析依據(jù)，研究人民幣升值影響制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的機理，，規(guī)范地闡述人民幣升值如何影響廣東省制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構。 其次，以廣東省制造業(yè)相關數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析。對人民幣升值影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結構進行平穩(wěn)性檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗、因果關系檢驗，并運用OLS等方法進行實證分析，研究人民幣升值對廣東省制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結構影響的顯著程度。 最后，通過理論分析加實證檢驗，得出結論:一、人民幣有效匯率上升會使廣東制造業(yè)中的低技術制造業(yè)占比上升。二、人民幣升值對不同的制造業(yè)部門有不同的影響:有利于勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The exchange rate policy is an important way of regulating the macro economy. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy appears repeatedly in the conflict, external balance, and continue to lead to the exchange rate system of RMB exchange rate is controversial. In the rising phase of the oscillation, the structure of social resources is facing tremendous pressure in the background, in-depth study of the impact of exchange rate movements on the manufacturing industry the structure of China's economic, it has important theoretical and practical significance of balanced development. Substantial appreciation of the renminbi in recent years has been the development of our country economy brought a serious impact, the industrial structure of these shocks will directly affect the manufacturing industry in Guangdong province. In this context, research on the impact of RMB appreciation on manufacturing industry structure adjustment Guangdong Province, not only to the mechanism of the impact of RMB appreciation manufacturing industrial structure clarity, but also for the government to further development, adjustment of manufacturing The industry structure provides policy recommendations.
This article first elaborated the domestic and foreign experts and scholars on the relationship between the change of exchange rate and industrial structure of manufacturing industry, the results of the study and the viewpoint, and the point of view of the above summary, elaborated the nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate, manufacturing and other related concepts, at the same time, the exchange rate changes affect the industrial structure theory, including the theory of aggregate demand, instead of labor capital effect, the Marshall Lerner condition, and then takes these theories as the analysis basis, research on the impact of RMB appreciation mechanism of manufacturing industrial structure, specification on RMB appreciation how to affect the industrial structure of manufacturing industry in Guangdong province.
Secondly, the manufacturing sector in Guangdong province relevant data for empirical analysis. The stationary test of the impact of RMB appreciation of industrial structure, cointegration test, Granger causality test, and makes an empirical analysis by using the OLS method, the appreciation of RMB significantly impact the industrial structure of Guangdong province.
Finally, through theoretical analysis and empirical tests, the paper concluded that: first, increase the effective exchange rate of RMB will make the manufacturing industry in Guangdong and low technology manufacturing industry accounted for the rise. Two, RMB appreciation has different effect on different manufacturing sectors: conducive to the development of labor-intensive industries.

【學位授予單位】：華南理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F427

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