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  本文關鍵詞： 現代服務業(yè) 政策效應 空間統計 溢出性　出處：《江西財經大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著中國市場經濟的逐步轉型，產業(yè)結構大幅度改革并逐步升級完善，現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展的深入研究對區(qū)域經濟增長及空間集聚效應演變的作用十分顯著。在當前學術界，對現代服務業(yè)的空間集聚效應的相關研究成果很多，但針對一個地區(qū)的現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應的相關研究尚不多見，對現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應的系統分析，并將空間相關性這一影響因素融入一個地區(qū)的政策效應體系的相關研究文獻更不多見。本論文的研究目的和研究任務是基于當前中國現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展現狀和發(fā)展愿景的基礎上，構建較為完整的現代服務業(yè)政策體系，以江西省鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)為研究對象，通過政策理論分析與實證研究相結合探究鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)空間集聚特征與當地政策效應的內在機理。 論文主要研究內容分五大部分，第一部分包括緒論和現代服務業(yè)的相關內涵、分類和范圍界定及現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策相關理論分析。根據鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)當前發(fā)展狀況，論文第二部分將做系統概括分析，通過描述性方法對鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)當前的規(guī)模水平做出評價，根據鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展的基礎條件闡述該地區(qū)的現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展對整個經濟體制發(fā)展改革完善的貢獻與效果。第三部分是對鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)的現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策進行效應測度，通過常用效應測度方法的比較，選用超效率DEA方法對鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)的現代服務業(yè)進行實證分析，具體測算2005-2010年鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)31個縣市的現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策的效應值，得出結論：鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)的政策效應并沒有隨著時間的推移有所改良，，對當地的現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展的影響效果不顯著。通過模型測算的該地區(qū)各縣市的效應值比較可以發(fā)現政策效應的空間聚集特征顯著，這一結論表明鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應具有溢出效應，該地區(qū)的現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展存在空間相關性，通過空間相關性角度考察鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應具有實踐價值。 第四部分根據鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展特征分別從內在因素和外在因素兩個方面選取該地區(qū)現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策的衡量指標，通過GeoDa軟件計算鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策的Moran's I值并描繪其政策效應值散點圖，提出鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應的空間相關性顯著的特征。據此，通過構建空間滯后模型和空間誤差模型，選取政策質量因素、政策民主化因素、體制因素和認識因素等指標作為模型的解釋變量，將鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)各縣市的現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應作為被解釋變量，對該地區(qū)現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應影響因素的空間自相關性進行檢驗，模型檢驗結果表明鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)政策體系中的體制因素和政策質量因素對當地的現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展具有顯著的促進作用，而認識因素（即對現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展的重視程度）需要時間的積累，將在未來發(fā)展期間有一定的助推能力。 第五部分是根據三、四部分中現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應測算及溢出性特征測度結果而得出的相關結論，并為提升鄱陽湖生態(tài)經濟區(qū)現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應提出實踐性建議，包括三個方面：一、提升政策質量，權衡各方利益。主要根據現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展特征，結合政策質量因素和政策民主化因素等相關模型指標對政策效應的影響程度所提出的政策建議。二、科學改革政策體制，重視市場資源配置�；谯蛾柡鷳B(tài)經濟區(qū)經濟結構的調整，產業(yè)結構的轉型及模型變量體制因素對該地區(qū)政策效應的綜合影響考慮，提出對當地政策體制的改革必要性，重視服務業(yè)的人力資源對市場建設的影響，政策對信息服務業(yè)重點扶持具有長遠價值。三、明確現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展前景，重視現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展的貢獻。根據模型變量認識因素對現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展政策效應的影響效果表明，當地政府對現代服務業(yè)的重視程度不高，對服務業(yè)內部結構認知不夠，提倡政府重視現代服務業(yè)與第一、二產業(yè)的緊密結合，提升通信、金融和物流等現代服務業(yè)對其他產業(yè)的支撐力度，重視現代服務業(yè)發(fā)展對當地經濟發(fā)展的長遠利益。
[Abstract]:With the gradual transformation of China market economy, industrial structure greatly reform and gradually upgrade, in-depth study of the development of modern service industry on regional economic growth and spatial agglomeration evolution is very significant. In the current academic circles, many related research achievements of the modern service industry agglomeration effect of space, but the research for a the development of modern service industry policy is still rare, systematic analysis of the development of modern service industry policy effect, and will see more relevant research documents the impact of spatial correlation factors into a system of regional policy effect. The purpose of this research and the research task is based on the current development of Chinese the modern service industry present situation and the development of vision on the construction of modern service industry policy system more complete, to the modern service of Jiangxi province Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone Industry The purpose of the study is to explore the spatial mechanism of the modern service industry in Poyang Lake eco economic zone and the internal mechanism of the local policy effect through the combination of policy analysis and empirical research.
The main content of this thesis is divided into five parts. The first part includes the introduction and the connotation of the modern service industry, the relevant theoretical analysis and define the scope and classification of policies for the development of modern service industry. According to the modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone is the current state of development, the second part will do system analysis, through the descriptive methods of the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake the level of modern service industry and the current scale of evaluation, according to the basic conditions of modern service industry development in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone is the area of the development of modern service industry contribution to the development of the whole economic system reform and perfect effect. The third part is the policy for the development of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone of modern service industry by comparing the effect of measure, measure common effect, using super efficiency DEA method on the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry demonstration Analysis of effect of the development of policy of 31 counties in 2005-2010 years to calculate the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry value, draw the conclusion: the policy effect of the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake over time did not improve effect on the local development of modern service industry is not significant. Compared the policy effect of spatial aggregation characteristics the model estimates the significant effect of cities and counties of the value, the conclusion indicates that the effect of policies for the development of modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone has a spillover effect, the area of modern service industry development in the spatial correlation, the spatial correlation of the perspective effect of modern service industry development policy of Poyang Lake ecological economic zone has practical value.
The fourth part according to the measure of the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry development features two aspects respectively from the internal and external factors from the area of modern service industry development policy, through the calculation of the GeoDa software development policy of modern service industry in the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake Moran's I and describe its policy effect value plot, spatial correlation characteristics the modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone development policy effect significantly. Therefore, by constructing the spatial lag model and spatial error model, selection of quality policy factors, democratic policy factors, institutional factors and cognitive factors and other indicators as independent variables of the model, the effect of the development of the policy of each county Ecological Economic Zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry as explanatory variables, impact on the modern service industry in the region development policy effect factors of the spatial autocorrelation of inspection Test, test results show that the model has a significant role in promoting the development of modern service industry quality factors institutional factors of modern service industry in Poyang Lake ecological economic zone policy system and the policy of local, and understanding of the factors (the degree of attention to the development of modern service industry) need time to accumulate, there will be a boost capacity in the future during the period of development.
The fifth part is based on the three, the related conclusion effect of modern service industry development policy in the four part the estimates and the overflow of characteristic measurement findings, and to enhance the ecological economic zone of Poyang Lake modern service industry development policy effect put forward some practical suggestions, including three aspects: first, enhance the quality of policy, weigh the interests of all parties. According to the modern the development of service industry characteristics, the impact model index with the policy quality factors and policy factors on the democratization of policy effect policy recommendations. Two, scientific reform policy system, pay attention to market allocation of resources. The economic structure adjustment of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone Based on the comprehensive consideration of influence of transformation and the variables of the model system of industrial structure the effects of policies in the region, put forward the reform necessity of local policies, pay attention to the service industry influence human resources market construction The policy of information service industry, the key support has long-term value. Three, clear prospects for the development of modern service industry, attaches great importance to the development of modern service industry contribution. According to the effect factors on the understanding of the variables of the model of modern service industry development policy, the local government attaches great importance to the modern service industry is not high, the lack of the internal structure of the service industry cognition, closely, advocate the government attaches great importance to the modern service industry and the first, second industry to enhance communication, financial support and logistics and other modern service industry to other industries, pay attention to the development of modern service industry in the development of the local economy's long-term interests.

【學位授予單位】：江西財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F719;F224

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