中國銀行業(yè)的福利效應研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-12 02:57
【摘要】：本文主要研究了中國銀行業(yè)對個人、企業(yè)以及政府這三個主要參與方的福利狀況。 中國銀行業(yè)對個人的福利分析,我們首先從理論上闡述跨期消費理論,得出消費者效應最大化的情況為一種跨期消費行為,此時消費者通過儲蓄將收入轉為下期消費或者貸款提前消費來實現(xiàn)跨期消費。與消費者只消費當期收入相比,跨期消費的效用更優(yōu)。即消費者通過跨期消費與只進行當期消費相比獲得了額外的效用,也可以說獲得了額外的福利。而這種額外福利是消費者通過在銀行儲蓄和借貸來實現(xiàn)的,所以也可以認為銀行的吸儲與貸款業(yè)務給消費者帶來了這額外的福利。然后通過中國三十多年的數(shù)據實證分析中國消費者的行為確實存在著跨期消費行為。即從實證角度定性的分析了中國銀行業(yè)對個人的福利效應。最后考慮到個人與銀行的關系主要為存款和借貸,而這兩種行為都與利率有著緊密的聯(lián)系。參照Zou (1991、1994、1998) G. corneo and0. Jeanne (2001)個體效應函數(shù)采用效用可分性的形式,效用函數(shù)包括消費和資產,通過實證分析國內生產總值、消費指數(shù)、存款利率對個人效用的影響,實證結果顯示銀行存款利率總體趨勢是變小,對個體效用的影響是負向的。 中國銀行業(yè)對企業(yè)的福利分析主要從財務杠桿和稅盾效應兩個角度來進行。稅盾效應角度實證分析了企業(yè)的資產負債表,發(fā)現(xiàn)企業(yè)運用了從銀行借款利息免稅的稅盾效應來合理避稅,而且發(fā)現(xiàn)企業(yè)越發(fā)展利用稅盾效應的趨勢越明顯。稅盾效應帶來的合理避稅可以說是銀行給企業(yè)的一種額外福利。財務杠桿角度的實證分析了資金需求大的房地產123家上市房企,發(fā)現(xiàn)在合理負債比率的區(qū)間內企業(yè)價值與財務杠桿比率成正比,企業(yè)價值越大往往財務杠桿比率越高。正財務杠桿對企業(yè)而言可以看成是一種福利。 中國銀行業(yè)對政府的福利效應分析主要從銀行貸款、銀行貸款利率與經濟發(fā)展的關系兩個角度來進行分析。經濟發(fā)展又好又快,對政府而言可以說是一種福利,經濟發(fā)展好了,失業(yè)率降低,社會穩(wěn)定,對政府執(zhí)政地位有利。首先通過構造社會福利函數(shù),實證分析銀行貸款對社會福利的影響。實證結果說明中國銀行業(yè)的貸款對社會的福利具有明顯的正向影響,對政府產生了明顯的間接福利。然后,通過建立回歸分析得出銀行貸款利率、固定資產投資與國內生產總值之間的關系,得出銀行合理的貸款利率有利于銀行放貸的積極性,有利于資金的使用效率,有利于經濟的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the welfare of Chinese banking industry to the individual, enterprise and government. In the analysis of individual welfare in China's banking industry, we first explain the theory of intertemporal consumption theoretically, and conclude that the maximization of consumer effect is a kind of intertemporal consumption behavior. At this time, the consumer will save income into the next period of consumption or loan ahead of the consumption to achieve intertemporal consumption. Compared with consumers only consuming current income, the utility of cross-term consumption is better. That is to say, consumers gain extra utility and welfare compared with only current consumption through intertemporal consumption. This kind of extra benefit is realized by consumers saving and lending in bank, so it can also be considered that the bank's business of absorbing deposits and loans has brought this extra benefit to consumers. Then, through the data of more than 30 years in China, the empirical analysis shows that the behavior of Chinese consumers does exist intertemporal consumption behavior. That is, from the perspective of empirical qualitative analysis of the welfare effects of Chinese banking on individuals. Finally, consider that the relationship between individuals and banks is mainly deposits and loans, both of which are closely related to interest rates. Reference to Zou (1991 / 1994 / 1998) G. corneo and0.) The individual effect function of Jeanne (2001) adopts the form of utility separability. The utility function includes consumption and assets. Through empirical analysis of the impact of gross domestic product (GDP), consumption index, deposit interest rate on individual utility, Jeanne (2001), The empirical results show that the overall trend of bank deposit interest rate is smaller and the impact on individual utility is negative. The welfare analysis of Chinese banks is mainly from two angles of financial leverage and tax shield effect. This paper empirically analyzes the balance sheet of enterprises from the perspective of tax shield effect, and finds that the tax shield effect of tax-exempt interest from bank loans is used to avoid tax reasonably, and that the more enterprises develop and utilize tax shield effect, the more obvious the trend is. The reasonable tax avoidance brought about by the tax shield effect can be said to be a kind of extra benefit to the enterprise by the bank. From the perspective of financial leverage, 123 listed real estate companies with large capital demand are analyzed. It is found that in the range of reasonable debt ratio, the enterprise value is proportional to the financial leverage ratio, and the higher the enterprise value is, the higher the financial leverage ratio is. Positive financial leverage can be seen as a welfare to an enterprise. The welfare effect of Chinese banking on government is mainly analyzed from two angles: bank loan, the relationship between bank loan interest rate and economic development. The economic development is good and fast, it can be said to be a kind of welfare to the government, the economic development is good, the unemployment rate is lower, the society is stable, is advantageous to the government ruling position. Firstly, the influence of bank loan on social welfare is analyzed empirically by constructing social welfare function. The empirical results show that the loan of China's banking industry has a significant positive impact on social welfare and a significant indirect welfare to the government. Then, by establishing regression analysis, the relationship between bank loan interest rate, fixed asset investment and GDP is obtained, and the reasonable loan interest rate is beneficial to the enthusiasm of bank lending and the efficiency of the use of funds. It is good for the development of economy.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.3
本文編號：2373771
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the welfare of Chinese banking industry to the individual, enterprise and government. In the analysis of individual welfare in China's banking industry, we first explain the theory of intertemporal consumption theoretically, and conclude that the maximization of consumer effect is a kind of intertemporal consumption behavior. At this time, the consumer will save income into the next period of consumption or loan ahead of the consumption to achieve intertemporal consumption. Compared with consumers only consuming current income, the utility of cross-term consumption is better. That is to say, consumers gain extra utility and welfare compared with only current consumption through intertemporal consumption. This kind of extra benefit is realized by consumers saving and lending in bank, so it can also be considered that the bank's business of absorbing deposits and loans has brought this extra benefit to consumers. Then, through the data of more than 30 years in China, the empirical analysis shows that the behavior of Chinese consumers does exist intertemporal consumption behavior. That is, from the perspective of empirical qualitative analysis of the welfare effects of Chinese banking on individuals. Finally, consider that the relationship between individuals and banks is mainly deposits and loans, both of which are closely related to interest rates. Reference to Zou (1991 / 1994 / 1998) G. corneo and0.) The individual effect function of Jeanne (2001) adopts the form of utility separability. The utility function includes consumption and assets. Through empirical analysis of the impact of gross domestic product (GDP), consumption index, deposit interest rate on individual utility, Jeanne (2001), The empirical results show that the overall trend of bank deposit interest rate is smaller and the impact on individual utility is negative. The welfare analysis of Chinese banks is mainly from two angles of financial leverage and tax shield effect. This paper empirically analyzes the balance sheet of enterprises from the perspective of tax shield effect, and finds that the tax shield effect of tax-exempt interest from bank loans is used to avoid tax reasonably, and that the more enterprises develop and utilize tax shield effect, the more obvious the trend is. The reasonable tax avoidance brought about by the tax shield effect can be said to be a kind of extra benefit to the enterprise by the bank. From the perspective of financial leverage, 123 listed real estate companies with large capital demand are analyzed. It is found that in the range of reasonable debt ratio, the enterprise value is proportional to the financial leverage ratio, and the higher the enterprise value is, the higher the financial leverage ratio is. Positive financial leverage can be seen as a welfare to an enterprise. The welfare effect of Chinese banking on government is mainly analyzed from two angles: bank loan, the relationship between bank loan interest rate and economic development. The economic development is good and fast, it can be said to be a kind of welfare to the government, the economic development is good, the unemployment rate is lower, the society is stable, is advantageous to the government ruling position. Firstly, the influence of bank loan on social welfare is analyzed empirically by constructing social welfare function. The empirical results show that the loan of China's banking industry has a significant positive impact on social welfare and a significant indirect welfare to the government. Then, by establishing regression analysis, the relationship between bank loan interest rate, fixed asset investment and GDP is obtained, and the reasonable loan interest rate is beneficial to the enthusiasm of bank lending and the efficiency of the use of funds. It is good for the development of economy.
【學位授予單位】：南京財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.3
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