【摘要】：自1998年政府取消福利分房制度以來(lái),房子開(kāi)始作為一種商品全面走向市場(chǎng),住宅的商品化之路便備受關(guān)注。特別是近年來(lái)隨著我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的持續(xù)快速發(fā)展,政府等相關(guān)部門(mén)為了應(yīng)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)量?jī)r(jià)齊升的局面,陸續(xù)出臺(tái)了一系列旨在控制房?jī)r(jià)過(guò)快上漲、抑制房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)投資過(guò)熱的宏觀調(diào)控措施。但市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)卻在一定程度上偏離了政府的預(yù)期調(diào)控目標(biāo),持續(xù)升溫的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)引起了政府相關(guān)部門(mén)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)過(guò)快發(fā)展會(huì)危害國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行與社會(huì)和諧穩(wěn)定的警覺(jué)和擔(dān)憂。因此,如何根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的內(nèi)部運(yùn)行機(jī)制及發(fā)展規(guī)律,制定科學(xué)合理切實(shí)可行的宏觀調(diào)控政策,引導(dǎo)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)回歸理性,滿足普通消費(fèi)者的基本住房需求就成為了人們廣泛關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題之一。本文主要將系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的分析方法應(yīng)用于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的研究。首先,從構(gòu)成房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的內(nèi)外部因素出發(fā),對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的內(nèi)部運(yùn)行機(jī)制及發(fā)展規(guī)律進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)分析,探討了房地產(chǎn)商品價(jià)格的影響因素及其形成機(jī)理。接著構(gòu)建了基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的系統(tǒng)仿真模型,并以濟(jì)南市為例進(jìn)行了模擬仿真。然后根據(jù)搜集的歷年數(shù)據(jù)及系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型仿真預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果,選取風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo),構(gòu)建了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的指標(biāo)體系,并采用信號(hào)分析法構(gòu)建了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合指數(shù),提出了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)臨界值的測(cè)度標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和不同級(jí)別警情的應(yīng)對(duì)措施。最后結(jié)合模型敏感性測(cè)試的結(jié)果及濟(jì)南市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的實(shí)際狀況選取變量,進(jìn)行了單變量的單一政策試驗(yàn)及多變量的綜合政策仿真試驗(yàn),通過(guò)不同政策試驗(yàn)的結(jié)果的對(duì)比分析,提出了濟(jì)南市房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控的政策建議和具體措施。本文主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新點(diǎn)有以下幾方面:1、界定了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)系統(tǒng)的邊界,定義了系統(tǒng)的主要參與要素,提出了由供求、成本、調(diào)控和社會(huì)四個(gè)子系統(tǒng)組成的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)系統(tǒng)基本結(jié)構(gòu)體系,構(gòu)建了基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的房地產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)仿真模型并進(jìn)行了模擬仿真,為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的系統(tǒng)研究提供了有力的理論支持。2、構(gòu)建了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的指標(biāo)體系和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合指數(shù),提出了各級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)臨界值的測(cè)度標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和不同級(jí)別警情的應(yīng)對(duì)措施,為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的監(jiān)測(cè)和調(diào)控提供了科學(xué)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和參考依據(jù)。3、指出了對(duì)房地產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)影響巨大且適合作為國(guó)家政策調(diào)控對(duì)象的關(guān)鍵變量,進(jìn)行了單變量單一政策試驗(yàn)與多變量綜合政策試驗(yàn),提出了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的政策調(diào)控措施,為房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的調(diào)控提供了切實(shí)可行的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the government abolished the welfare housing allocation system in 1998, the house began to enter the market as a kind of commodity in an all-round way. In particular, with the sustained and rapid development of the real estate market in China in recent years, in order to cope with the rising volume and price of the real estate market, the government and other relevant departments have successively introduced a series of measures aimed at controlling the excessive rise in house prices. The macro-control measures to curb the overheating of investment in the real estate market. However, the market response deviates from the government's target of regulation and control to a certain extent. The rising real estate market has aroused the alarm and concern of the relevant government departments that the rapid development of the real estate market will endanger the smooth operation of the national economy and social harmony and stability. Therefore, according to the internal operating mechanism and development law of the real estate market, how to formulate scientific, reasonable and feasible macro-control policies to guide the real estate market to return to rationality, To meet the basic housing needs of ordinary consumers has become one of the hot issues widely concerned. This paper mainly applies the analysis method of system dynamics to the research of real estate market risk early warning system. First of all, starting from the internal and external factors that constitute the real estate market, this paper analyzes in detail the internal operating mechanism and the development law of the real estate market, and probes into the influencing factors and the forming mechanism of the real estate commodity price. Then, the system simulation model of real estate market based on system dynamics is constructed. Then according to the collected data and the simulation results of system dynamics model, the risk early warning index is selected, and the index system of real estate market risk early warning is constructed. The risk index of real estate market is constructed by means of signal analysis, and the measure standard of critical value of risk and the countermeasures of different levels of warning are put forward. Finally, combining the results of model sensitivity test and the actual situation of real estate market in Jinan, the single policy test with single variable and the comprehensive policy simulation experiment with multiple variables are carried out, and the results of different policy tests are compared and analyzed. This paper puts forward the policy suggestions and concrete measures of real estate market regulation in Jinan. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: 1, defining the boundary of the real estate market system, defining the main participating elements of the system, putting forward by the supply and demand, the cost, The basic structure system of real estate market system, which is composed of four subsystems of regulation and control and society, is constructed and simulated based on the simulation model of real estate system based on system dynamics. It provides a powerful theoretical support for the systematic study of real estate market, and constructs the index system of real estate market risk early warning and the real estate market risk comprehensive index. The paper puts forward the measurement standard of the critical value of risk at all levels and the countermeasures of different levels of alarm. It provides a scientific standard and reference basis for the monitoring and control of real estate market risks, and points out the key variables that have a great impact on the real estate system and are suitable for national policy regulation. The univariate single policy test and multivariable comprehensive policy test are carried out, and the policy control measures of real estate market are put forward, which provide practical suggestions for real estate market regulation and control.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：濟(jì)南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：N941.3;F299.23

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