基于Z模型對我國房地產(chǎn)上市公司財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-18 14:16
【摘要】：經(jīng)過幾十年的發(fā)展，我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，并帶動了我國數(shù)十個產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展，逐漸成為我國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，對于推動國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長和居民的居住條件的改善發(fā)揮了重要作用。雖然房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)迅速發(fā)展，但由于其本身具有資金密集型、關(guān)聯(lián)度高、周轉(zhuǎn)周期長、高風(fēng)險以及高投資等特點，使得投資房地產(chǎn)具有較大的投資風(fēng)險。再加上房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)所需資金主要來源于銀行貸款、預(yù)售銷售款、股權(quán)融資以及其他的商業(yè)貸款，使得其本身的財務(wù)風(fēng)險就較大。較高的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率和借款費(fèi)用，要求企業(yè)提高償債能力，這在一定程度上制約企業(yè)的經(jīng)營活動，從而影響其盈利能力，更為嚴(yán)重的可能導(dǎo)致企業(yè)資金鏈斷裂，出現(xiàn)入不敷出的風(fēng)險。因此，采取一定的方法分析房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險、探究其形成風(fēng)險的源頭具有重要的現(xiàn)實和理論意義。 本文在總結(jié)國內(nèi)外眾多學(xué)者對房地產(chǎn)業(yè)財務(wù)風(fēng)險研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，選擇了在實踐上廣泛使用的Z模型進(jìn)行研究。由于Z模型使用的財務(wù)指標(biāo)主要是靜態(tài)的以及基于權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制原則的，所以本文在研究模型上增加了兩個有關(guān)現(xiàn)金流的分析指標(biāo)，，從而能更加真實的衡量企業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險。本文研究的對象主要為深、滬交易所上市的118家A股房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)，并以其2009年到2011年間公開的財務(wù)報表數(shù)據(jù)為計算依據(jù)，利用EXCEL分析軟件進(jìn)行實證研究。 實證結(jié)果表明，Altman的Z模型在預(yù)測我國房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險時并不完全適用，Z模型的臨界值過高，這與其他學(xué)者研究的結(jié)論一致。本文通過修改Z模型的臨界值，并以新的臨界值對2009年和2010年的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行回代檢驗以及對2011年數(shù)據(jù)檢驗，證明新的臨界值更具精確性，從而得出新的適用我國房地產(chǎn)上市公司的Z模型臨界值。結(jié)合新的Z值分析，當(dāng)公司處于不同的Z值區(qū)域時，分析公司存在的問題以及應(yīng)采取的解決方法。并結(jié)合現(xiàn)金盈利質(zhì)量率和現(xiàn)金增值質(zhì)量率兩個財務(wù)指標(biāo)檢驗房地產(chǎn)上市公司的財務(wù)風(fēng)險，得出的結(jié)論更加精確，同時也預(yù)測出處于正常狀態(tài)的房地產(chǎn)上市公司現(xiàn)金盈利質(zhì)量率和現(xiàn)金增值質(zhì)量率兩個財務(wù)指標(biāo)的區(qū)間范圍。
[Abstract]:After decades of development, the real estate industry in China has developed rapidly, and led the development of dozens of industries in our country, gradually becoming the pillar industry of our national economy. It plays an important role in promoting the rapid growth of national economy and improving the living conditions of residents. Although the real estate industry is developing rapidly as the pillar industry of the national economy, because of its capital intensive, high correlation degree, long turnover period, high risk and high investment, the investment of real estate industry has great investment risk. In addition, the capital needed for real estate development mainly comes from bank loans, pre-sale sales, equity financing and other commercial loans, which makes its own financial risk greater. Higher asset-liability ratio and borrowing cost require enterprises to improve their ability to repay debt, which to a certain extent restricts the business activities of enterprises, thus affecting their profitability, which may lead to the breakage of the enterprise's capital chain. There is a risk of living beyond your means. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to analyze the financial risk of real estate industry and explore the source of its formation risk. On the basis of summarizing the research achievements of many domestic and foreign scholars on financial risk of real estate industry, this paper chooses Z model, which is widely used in practice. Because the financial indexes used in Z model are mainly static and based on accrual basis, this paper adds two analysis indexes about cash flow in the research model, so that the financial risk of enterprises can be measured more truthfully. The research object of this paper is mainly deep, 118 A-share real estate companies listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange, and based on the financial statement data published from 2009 to 2011, the empirical research is carried out by using EXCEL analysis software. The empirical results show that Altman's Z model is not completely suitable for predicting the financial risk of real estate enterprises in China. The critical value of Z model is too high, which is consistent with the conclusion of other scholars. In this paper, by modifying the critical value of Z model, and using the new critical value to test the data of 2009 and 2010 and the data of 2011, it is proved that the new critical value is more accurate. Thus, a new Z model critical value for real estate listed companies in China is obtained. Combined with the new Z value analysis, when the company is in different Z value region, the problems existing in the company and the solutions should be adopted are analyzed. Combined with the cash profit quality rate and the cash appreciation quality rate, the financial risk of the listed real estate companies is tested, and the conclusion is more accurate. At the same time, the range of the two financial indexes of cash profit quality rate and cash appreciation quality rate of real estate listed companies in normal state is predicted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4
[Abstract]:After decades of development, the real estate industry in China has developed rapidly, and led the development of dozens of industries in our country, gradually becoming the pillar industry of our national economy. It plays an important role in promoting the rapid growth of national economy and improving the living conditions of residents. Although the real estate industry is developing rapidly as the pillar industry of the national economy, because of its capital intensive, high correlation degree, long turnover period, high risk and high investment, the investment of real estate industry has great investment risk. In addition, the capital needed for real estate development mainly comes from bank loans, pre-sale sales, equity financing and other commercial loans, which makes its own financial risk greater. Higher asset-liability ratio and borrowing cost require enterprises to improve their ability to repay debt, which to a certain extent restricts the business activities of enterprises, thus affecting their profitability, which may lead to the breakage of the enterprise's capital chain. There is a risk of living beyond your means. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to analyze the financial risk of real estate industry and explore the source of its formation risk. On the basis of summarizing the research achievements of many domestic and foreign scholars on financial risk of real estate industry, this paper chooses Z model, which is widely used in practice. Because the financial indexes used in Z model are mainly static and based on accrual basis, this paper adds two analysis indexes about cash flow in the research model, so that the financial risk of enterprises can be measured more truthfully. The research object of this paper is mainly deep, 118 A-share real estate companies listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange, and based on the financial statement data published from 2009 to 2011, the empirical research is carried out by using EXCEL analysis software. The empirical results show that Altman's Z model is not completely suitable for predicting the financial risk of real estate enterprises in China. The critical value of Z model is too high, which is consistent with the conclusion of other scholars. In this paper, by modifying the critical value of Z model, and using the new critical value to test the data of 2009 and 2010 and the data of 2011, it is proved that the new critical value is more accurate. Thus, a new Z model critical value for real estate listed companies in China is obtained. Combined with the new Z value analysis, when the company is in different Z value region, the problems existing in the company and the solutions should be adopted are analyzed. Combined with the cash profit quality rate and the cash appreciation quality rate, the financial risk of the listed real estate companies is tested, and the conclusion is more accurate. At the same time, the range of the two financial indexes of cash profit quality rate and cash appreciation quality rate of real estate listed companies in normal state is predicted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F299.233.4
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 包曉嵐;;上市公司財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警“Z”值區(qū)域研究與分析[J];財會通訊(學(xué)術(shù)版);2006年05期
2 劉紅霞,韓Z
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