【摘要】：城市化是人類社會(huì)發(fā)展的必然趨勢,也是現(xiàn)階段我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的內(nèi)生動(dòng)力。2011年中國城市化率達(dá)到51.3%,城鎮(zhèn)人口首次超過農(nóng)村人口,這意味著我國的城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展進(jìn)入了新的發(fā)展階段,城市的空間結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)定位、城市規(guī)劃等都將面臨新的發(fā)展機(jī)遇。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)性、先導(dǎo)性產(chǎn)業(yè),是城市化的物質(zhì)載體,隨著城市化進(jìn)程的加快,必然有大量農(nóng)村剩余勞動(dòng)力進(jìn)入城鎮(zhèn)生存、生活,這為房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提供了廣闊的空間。然而我國地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不平衡,各地區(qū)城市化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展水平存在很大差距,因此,從區(qū)域角度研究城市化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系,對(duì)于推動(dòng)該區(qū)域城市化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的健康發(fā)展有著重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文以城市經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等理論為基礎(chǔ),選擇長三角地區(qū)作為研究對(duì)象,運(yùn)用歸納與演繹、規(guī)范與實(shí)證、定性與定量等方法,從橫向和縱向兩個(gè)角度研究長三角地區(qū)城市化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的互動(dòng)發(fā)展關(guān)系。定性角度：從長三角地區(qū)城市化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的實(shí)際情況出發(fā),分析兩者的互動(dòng)影響機(jī)制。定量角度：首先運(yùn)用因子分析法對(duì)長三角地區(qū)城市化和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià),建立兩者的主成分回歸模型；然后,運(yùn)用協(xié)調(diào)度模型,揭示各地區(qū)城市化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系；再者,從縱向的角度,選取上海作為代表城市,對(duì)時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行Granger因果檢驗(yàn),考察城市化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的因果關(guān)系。最后,就如何促進(jìn)長三角地區(qū)城市化與房地產(chǎn)業(yè)互動(dòng)發(fā)展提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the inevitable trend of the development of human society and the endogenous driving force of China's economic growth at the present stage. In 2011, the urbanization rate in China reached 51.3 percent, and the urban population surpassed the rural population for the first time. This means that China's urbanization has entered a new stage of development, the urban spatial structure, industrial positioning, urban planning and so on will face new development opportunities. As the basic and leading industry of the national economy, the real estate industry is the material carrier of urbanization. With the acceleration of the urbanization process, a large number of rural surplus labor force will inevitably enter the cities and towns to survive and live. This provides a broad space for the development of the real estate industry. However, the regional economic development in China is not balanced, and there is a big gap between urbanization and real estate development in different regions. Therefore, the interactive relationship between urbanization and real estate industry is studied from a regional perspective. It has important practical significance to promote the regional urbanization and the healthy development of the real estate industry. Based on the theories of urban economics, regional economics and real estate economics, this paper chooses the Yangtze River Delta region as the research object, and applies the methods of induction and deduction, norm and demonstration, qualitative and quantitative analysis, etc. The relationship between urbanization and real estate industry in Yangtze River Delta is studied from the horizontal and vertical angles. Qualitative angle: starting from the actual situation of urbanization and real estate development in Yangtze River Delta, this paper analyzes the interaction mechanism between them. Quantitative point of view: firstly, we use factor analysis method to comprehensively evaluate urbanization and real estate development level in Yangtze River Delta region, and then establish the principal component regression model of both, and then use the coordination degree model to evaluate the development level of urbanization and real estate industry in Yangtze River Delta region. Furthermore, from the vertical point of view, Shanghai is selected as the representative city, and the Granger causality test of time series data is carried out to investigate the causality between urbanization and real estate industry. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to promote the interactive development of urbanization and real estate industry in Yangtze River Delta.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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