【摘要】：“十二五規(guī)劃”期間正值我國經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)成為一個(gè)重要供需市場(chǎng),廣大人民群眾對(duì)住房具有剛性需求。然而,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的高房?jī)r(jià)趨勢(shì)雖有所緩解,但投機(jī)性購房、房?jī)r(jià)炒作、限購等因素成為房?jī)r(jià)“高溫”不減的重要因素。我國政府根本目標(biāo)是為廣大人民群眾謀福祉,而僅僅靠市場(chǎng)調(diào)節(jié)的房地產(chǎn)供需結(jié)構(gòu)已經(jīng)完全無法適應(yīng)當(dāng)前的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì),因此需要政府作為外部力量調(diào)節(jié)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的供需價(jià)格及住房供應(yīng)量,從而保障房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的持續(xù)健康發(fā)展。本文選取了全國15個(gè)代表性大型城市作為全國范圍內(nèi)住房?jī)r(jià)格研究的參考指標(biāo),著重分析了住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格受國家宏觀政策影響的作用機(jī)制。從全文來看,首先介紹了研究主題的背景來源,指出研究目標(biāo)和意義,并對(duì)國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于政策及住房?jī)r(jià)格方面的研究動(dòng)態(tài)、研究成果進(jìn)行了綜述。然后,集中論述了房地產(chǎn)宏觀調(diào)控政策的理論基礎(chǔ),包括房地產(chǎn)土地供應(yīng)理論、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)理論,以及政策學(xué)理論。此外,針對(duì)研究對(duì)象與具體政策指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了概念界定。接下來的兩章主要進(jìn)行理論分析,分別對(duì)土地政策和貨幣政策兩方面進(jìn)行理論闡述,著重分析了常態(tài)性的宏觀調(diào)控政策對(duì)城市住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的作用機(jī)制,土地政策方面從土地供給量、土地價(jià)格、土地供給結(jié)構(gòu)及土地供給方式五個(gè)角度進(jìn)行分析;貨幣政策主要分析了利率和貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)住房?jī)r(jià)格的影響。隨后,運(yùn)用定量分析方法,使用Spss19.0工具實(shí)證研究了宏觀調(diào)控政策對(duì)城市住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的影響。依據(jù)土地政策指標(biāo)和貨幣政策指標(biāo),研究政策與住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系和動(dòng)態(tài)影響。最后,對(duì)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果進(jìn)行總結(jié)性闡述,并根據(jù)理論分析及實(shí)證研究的結(jié)論,提出可行性政策建議。本文通過理論分析和實(shí)證分析,結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)理論和政策理論,得出研究結(jié)論:住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格受宏觀政策影響較為顯著,其中,土地政策和貨幣政策中各項(xiàng)子因素項(xiàng)對(duì)住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的調(diào)控作用各有不同。土地供應(yīng)量與住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格之間存在負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,土地價(jià)格與住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格之間存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系;利率水平和廣義貨幣供應(yīng)量與住房?jī)r(jià)格呈現(xiàn)同向走勢(shì),二者與住房市場(chǎng)價(jià)格均存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:During the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the real estate market has become an important supply and demand market, and the people have rigid demand for housing. However, although the trend of high house prices in the real estate market has been alleviated, the speculative purchase, speculation and restriction of purchase prices have become important factors for the "high temperature" of house prices. The fundamental goal of our government is to seek for the well-being of the broad masses of the people, but the supply and demand structure of real estate, which is only regulated by the market, has completely failed to adapt to the current situation of social and economic development. Therefore, it is necessary for the government as an external force to regulate the supply and demand price and housing supply of the real estate market, so as to ensure the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market. This paper selects 15 representative large cities as the reference index for the study of housing price in the whole country, and analyzes the mechanism of the housing market price influenced by the national macro policy. From the point of view of the full text, this paper first introduces the background source of the research topic, points out the research goal and significance, and summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars' research trends on policy and housing prices, as well as the research results. Then, it focuses on the theoretical basis of real estate macro-control policy, including real estate land supply theory, real estate market theory, and policy theory. In addition, the research object and specific policy indicators are defined. The next two chapters mainly analyze the theory of land policy and monetary policy, focusing on the normal macro-control policy on the urban housing market price mechanism. Land policy is analyzed from five aspects: land supply quantity, land price, land supply structure and land supply mode, and monetary policy mainly analyzes the influence of interest rate and money supply on housing price. Then, using quantitative analysis method and Spss19.0 tool, this paper empirically studies the impact of macro-control policies on urban housing market prices. According to land policy index and monetary policy index, this paper studies the correlation and dynamic influence between policy and housing market price. Finally, the empirical test results are summarized, and according to the theoretical analysis and empirical research conclusions, the feasibility policy recommendations are put forward. Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, combined with real estate market theory and policy theory, this paper draws a conclusion: housing market prices are significantly affected by macro policies, among which, Land policy and monetary policy have different effects on housing market price. There is a negative correlation between land supply and housing market price, a positive correlation between land price and housing market price, and the same trend between interest rate level and generalized money supply and housing price. Both have positive correlation with housing market price.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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