【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險是一個復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng),受到多方面的影響。2010年以來,我國房地產(chǎn)市場進入第六輪市場調(diào)控,隨著房價不斷上漲,房地產(chǎn)市場調(diào)控的力度不斷加大。2013年2月,國務(wù)院再次發(fā)布“新國五條”,針對住宅類房地產(chǎn)的市場調(diào)控再次升級,房地產(chǎn)項目的風(fēng)險越來越大,房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商在進行項目投資前,深入分析評價各項目的風(fēng)險情況,為成功決策提供理論支持越來越有必要。 本文首先以住宅類房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目為研究對象,在總結(jié)梳理國內(nèi)外關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評價研究相關(guān)成果的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合工作經(jīng)驗和所學(xué)知識,采用分類型風(fēng)險識別法從自然風(fēng)險、政策變化風(fēng)險、經(jīng)濟因素風(fēng)險、技術(shù)更新風(fēng)險、項目施工風(fēng)險、社會風(fēng)險和組織管理風(fēng)險七個方面識別出近三十種影響房地產(chǎn)項目投資的風(fēng)險。并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系。在對當(dāng)前我國房地產(chǎn)投資風(fēng)險狀況進行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,總體回顧了自1993年以來的六輪房地產(chǎn)市場調(diào)控措施及效果,提出我國房地產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)的五個趨勢,分析認(rèn)為,從未來發(fā)展趨勢看,我國房地產(chǎn)項目的宏觀經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險、供求關(guān)系風(fēng)險、稅收政策風(fēng)險和房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商內(nèi)部戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃風(fēng)險正不斷加大。 其次,在對風(fēng)險評價方法進行回顧分析的基礎(chǔ)上,基于模糊層次分析法,確定了房地產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系中各風(fēng)險要素權(quán)重,建立了我國住宅類房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目風(fēng)險綜合評價模型,結(jié)合當(dāng)前房地產(chǎn)市場調(diào)控力度不斷加大的背景,適當(dāng)加大政策風(fēng)險權(quán)重,使風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系和風(fēng)險綜合評價模型更加科學(xué)、合理。 最后,通過河北省廊坊市M房地產(chǎn)項目實際開發(fā)情況,對構(gòu)建的風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系和風(fēng)險綜合評價模型進行了實證分析,證明了風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系和風(fēng)險綜合評價模型的合理性和可靠性,本論文研究成果對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目風(fēng)險評價具有積極的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:Real estate project risk is a complex system, affected by many aspects. Since 2010, China's real estate market has entered the sixth round of market regulation and control. The State Council has again issued the "five articles of the New Nation," and the market regulation and control of residential real estate has been upgraded once again. The risks of real estate projects are getting bigger and bigger. Before the real estate developers invest in the projects, they thoroughly analyze and evaluate the risk situation of various projects. It is increasingly necessary to provide theoretical support for successful decisions. Firstly, this paper takes residential real estate development projects as the research object, on the basis of summing up and combing the related achievements of risk evaluation research on real estate projects at home and abroad, combining the work experience and the knowledge learned, Adopting the method of identifying risk by type from natural risk, policy change risk, economic factor risk, technology renewal risk, project construction risk, Social risk and organization management risk identify nearly 30 kinds of risk that affect real estate project investment. On this basis, the risk evaluation index system of real estate development project is constructed. Based on the analysis of the current situation of real estate investment risk in China, this paper reviews the six rounds of real estate market regulation and control measures and their effects since 1993, and points out five trends in the development of real estate project risk in China. From the point of view of the future development trend, the macro economic risk, supply and demand risk, tax policy risk and internal strategic planning risk of real estate developers are increasing. Secondly, on the basis of reviewing and analyzing the risk evaluation methods, and based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, this paper determines the weight of each risk element in the risk evaluation index system of real estate projects. This paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of residential real estate development projects in China, combining with the background of the increasing regulation and control of the real estate market at present, appropriately increasing the weight of policy risks. Make the risk evaluation index system and risk comprehensive evaluation model more scientific and reasonable. Finally, through the actual development of M real estate project in Langfang City, Hebei Province, the risk evaluation index system and risk comprehensive evaluation model are analyzed empirically. This paper proves the rationality and reliability of the risk evaluation index system and the risk comprehensive evaluation model. The research results of this paper have positive reference significance for the risk evaluation of real estate development projects.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F224

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