發(fā)布時間：2018-08-18 18:19

【摘要】：貨幣流動性過剩或不足均會造成經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的不穩(wěn)定，分析貨幣流動狀況，有利于國家采取合適的貨幣政策和財政政策進(jìn)行宏觀調(diào)控，保持經(jīng)濟(jì)市場的穩(wěn)定性。因此，本文以2000年第一季度至2012年第二季度我國貨幣流動性現(xiàn)狀為研究對象，確定貨幣流動性的測度方法，并檢驗(yàn)其有效性作為主要研究目標(biāo)。首先從貨幣流動性內(nèi)涵界定出發(fā)，對貨幣流動性的基本經(jīng)濟(jì)理論進(jìn)行梳理和總結(jié)。然后對現(xiàn)有貨幣流動性測度方法進(jìn)行界定，并進(jìn)行比較，提出貨幣流動性測度方法有效性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。在此基礎(chǔ)上，通過實(shí)證評價單指標(biāo)和多指標(biāo)下流動性測度模型的有效性，并提出有效的政策及建議。主要內(nèi)容有以下幾個方面： 首先，將現(xiàn)有的貨幣流動性測度方法如IS-LM模型下的貨幣流動性測度方法、馬歇爾K值系數(shù)方法、超額貨幣增長率等進(jìn)行對比研究，，分析此類方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，并進(jìn)一步確定測度方法有效性的原則和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；其次，通過實(shí)證模型對以單指標(biāo)為基礎(chǔ)的貨幣流動性和以多指標(biāo)為基礎(chǔ)的貨幣流動性分別進(jìn)行測度和對比，分析各種方法在測度貨幣流動性問題上的有效性反應(yīng)程度，最終得出基于多指標(biāo)的主成分分析法和指標(biāo)序優(yōu)勢決策法所得到的綜合指數(shù)，能夠很好的反映出我國貨幣流動性的狀況；再次，文章基于灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度模型分析多指標(biāo)的貨幣流動性測度的有效性，實(shí)證發(fā)現(xiàn)兩種方法均能較好的反映貨幣流動性，但從整體上看，指標(biāo)序優(yōu)勢決策法有效反應(yīng)參考指標(biāo)的個數(shù)比主成分分析法有效反應(yīng)參考指標(biāo)的個數(shù)多，所以說前者的有效性要更好一些；最后，根據(jù)實(shí)證中所體現(xiàn)的問題提出相關(guān)政策建議，指出股票市場和房地產(chǎn)市場在波動中表現(xiàn)最為劇烈，是進(jìn)行貨幣流動性管理保持貨幣流動性穩(wěn)定的當(dāng)務(wù)之急。 特別提出的是，由于房地產(chǎn)市場既可以通過減小貨幣供應(yīng)量和存貸差來緩解流動性過剩，又會通過影響外匯儲備來加劇流動性過剩，針對房地產(chǎn)市場的特殊性，因此制定相關(guān)政策的同時需均衡考慮其兩方面的因素。
[Abstract]:The excess or lack of monetary liquidity will cause instability of economic development level. Analyzing the situation of monetary flow is helpful for the country to adopt appropriate monetary and fiscal policies to carry out macro-control and maintain the stability of the economic market. Therefore, this paper takes the current situation of monetary liquidity in China from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2012 as the research object, determines the measure method of the monetary liquidity, and tests its validity as the main research objective. Firstly, the basic economic theory of monetary liquidity is sorted out and summarized from the definition of monetary liquidity connotation. Then the paper defines and compares the existing methods of money liquidity measurement, and puts forward the validity standard of monetary liquidity measurement method. On this basis, the validity of liquidity measurement model under single index and multiple index is evaluated empirically, and some effective policies and suggestions are put forward. The main contents are as follows: firstly, the existing methods of measuring monetary liquidity, such as the method of measuring monetary liquidity under IS-LM model, the method of Marshall K value coefficient, the rate of excess money growth and so on, are compared and studied. The advantages and disadvantages of such methods are analyzed, and the principles and criteria for the effectiveness of measurement methods are further determined. Secondly, Through the empirical model to measure and compare the monetary liquidity based on single index and multi-index respectively, this paper analyzes the degree of effectiveness of various methods in measuring the problem of monetary liquidity. Finally, the comprehensive index obtained by principal component analysis and index order advantage decision method based on multiple indexes can well reflect the situation of monetary liquidity in China. Based on the grey relational degree model, this paper analyzes the validity of the multi-index monetary liquidity measurement. It is found that both methods can reflect the monetary liquidity well, but on the whole, The number of effective reference indexes of index order superiority decision method is more than that of principal component analysis method, so the former is more effective. Finally, according to the problems reflected in the empirical analysis, some policy recommendations are put forward. It is pointed out that the stock market and the real estate market are the most violent in the fluctuation, which is the urgent task for the management of monetary liquidity to maintain the stability of monetary liquidity. In particular, because the real estate market can alleviate excess liquidity by reducing the money supply and the difference between deposits and loans, and it will aggravate the excess liquidity by influencing foreign exchange reserves, aiming at the particularity of the real estate market, Therefore, the formulation of relevant policies should be balanced at the same time to consider its two aspects of the factors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.2;F224

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