陜西省城市間住房?jī)r(jià)格的空間關(guān)聯(lián)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-15 17:00
【摘要】：近幾年我國(guó)住房?jī)r(jià)格的持續(xù)升高和房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控越調(diào)越高的現(xiàn)象，顯現(xiàn)出了政府宏觀(guān)調(diào)控政策一刀切的弊端，這就要求各級(jí)政府需要更為全面的分析房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展并制定有針對(duì)性和長(zhǎng)期性的調(diào)控政策。 依據(jù)空間計(jì)量學(xué)理論，，各研究單元的經(jīng)濟(jì)地理行為之間一般都存在某種程度的空間關(guān)聯(lián)作用，并且這種關(guān)聯(lián)作用在相距較近的研究單元之間會(huì)表現(xiàn)的更為緊密，然而以往有關(guān)房?jī)r(jià)的研究或是從全國(guó)層面出發(fā)，研究的各城市相距較遠(yuǎn)；或是從微觀(guān)層面出發(fā)研究某一地區(qū)房?jī)r(jià)，但研究往往關(guān)注城市本身房?jī)r(jià)特征而忽略了各城市間房?jī)r(jià)可能存在的空間關(guān)聯(lián)作用。鑒于此，本文嘗試以陜西省各城市的住房?jī)r(jià)格為研究對(duì)象，依據(jù)波紋效應(yīng)理論和空間計(jì)量學(xué)理論，以住房?jī)r(jià)格和相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，通過(guò)空間計(jì)量模型和相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)方法，分析陜西省省級(jí)范圍內(nèi)各城市間住房?jī)r(jià)格的空間關(guān)聯(lián)作用，得出主要結(jié)論：（1）陜西省各城市住房?jī)r(jià)格持續(xù)上漲的普遍預(yù)期對(duì)住房?jī)r(jià)格上漲帶來(lái)了顯著的推升作用，而各城市城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)對(duì)住房?jī)r(jià)格上漲預(yù)期的影響較大。（2）空間相鄰特征在陜西省各城市住房?jī)r(jià)格空間關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)中起到了主導(dǎo)作用，在此基礎(chǔ)上，社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)特征對(duì)其有顯著的強(qiáng)化作用；在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)特征中，房地產(chǎn)收益率比人均可支配收入對(duì)住房?jī)r(jià)格空間關(guān)聯(lián)的影響更顯著。（3）各城市人均GDP、土地出讓價(jià)格、年度竣工房屋面積是各城市自身住房?jī)r(jià)格的內(nèi)在穩(wěn)定影響因素，但各因素對(duì)不同城市住房?jī)r(jià)格的影響格局不同。（4）陜西省城市間住房?jī)r(jià)格出現(xiàn)了周邊城市推升中心城市房?jī)r(jià)的不同一般的倒置傳導(dǎo)關(guān)系。 進(jìn)而，本文提出針對(duì)陜北-關(guān)中-陜南三大板塊獨(dú)特的地理位置和房?jī)r(jià)空間傳導(dǎo)路徑，應(yīng)結(jié)合各因素的影響格局來(lái)協(xié)調(diào)中心城市與周邊城市的住房?jī)r(jià)格控制。同時(shí)，把控好人均GDP、土地出讓價(jià)格、年度竣工房屋面積等影響城市住房?jī)r(jià)格的內(nèi)在影響因素，減少對(duì)于住房?jī)r(jià)格上漲的預(yù)期。本研究的結(jié)論及建議對(duì)市級(jí)政府制定地區(qū)房?jī)r(jià)調(diào)控細(xì)則、省級(jí)政府建立跨城市的住房市場(chǎng)干預(yù)協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制都具有重要的參考意義。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the continuous rise in housing prices and the increasing adjustment and control of real estate in our country have revealed the shortcomings of the government's macro-control policies across the board. This requires governments at all levels to analyze the development of the real estate market more comprehensively and formulate targeted and long-term regulation and control policies. According to the theory of spatial metrology, there is a certain degree of spatial correlation between the economic and geographical behaviors of each research unit, and this kind of correlation is more closely related to the closer research unit. However, previous studies on housing prices have been conducted either at the national level, where the cities studied are far apart, or at the micro level, where housing prices in a given region are studied. However, the study often pays attention to the characteristics of the housing price and ignores the possible spatial correlation between the cities. In view of this, this paper tries to take the housing price of the cities in Shaanxi Province as the research object, according to the corrugated effect theory and the spatial metrology theory, based on the housing price and the related economic data, through the spatial econometric model and the correlation statistical method. Based on the analysis of the spatial correlation of housing prices among cities in Shaanxi Province, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the common expectation that housing prices continue to rise in various cities in Shaanxi Province has brought about a significant upward impact on housing prices. However, the expected increase of per capita disposable income of urban residents has a great impact on the expectation of housing price increase. (2) Spatial adjacent characteristics play a leading role in the spatial correlation effect of housing prices in Shaanxi Province, and on this basis, In the social and economic characteristics, the real estate return rate has a more significant impact on the spatial correlation of housing prices than the per capita disposable income. (3) per capita GDP, land transfer prices, The area of houses completed each year is the internal stable influence factor of each city's own housing price. However, the influence patterns of different factors on housing prices in different cities are different. (4) the housing prices between cities in Shaanxi Province appear different general inverted conduction relationship between the surrounding cities to push up the housing prices in central cities. Furthermore, this paper puts forward that the housing price control should be coordinated between the central city and the surrounding city according to the unique geographical location and the space conduction path of housing price in the three major plates of North Shaanxi-Guanzhong-South Shaanxi. At the same time, control the per capita GDP, land transfer price, annual completed housing area and other factors affecting urban housing prices, reduce the expectation of housing price rise. The conclusions and suggestions of this study are of great significance for the municipal government to formulate the regulation rules of regional housing prices and the provincial governments to establish the coordination mechanism of intercity housing market intervention.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23
本文編號(hào)：2184849
[Abstract]:In recent years, the continuous rise in housing prices and the increasing adjustment and control of real estate in our country have revealed the shortcomings of the government's macro-control policies across the board. This requires governments at all levels to analyze the development of the real estate market more comprehensively and formulate targeted and long-term regulation and control policies. According to the theory of spatial metrology, there is a certain degree of spatial correlation between the economic and geographical behaviors of each research unit, and this kind of correlation is more closely related to the closer research unit. However, previous studies on housing prices have been conducted either at the national level, where the cities studied are far apart, or at the micro level, where housing prices in a given region are studied. However, the study often pays attention to the characteristics of the housing price and ignores the possible spatial correlation between the cities. In view of this, this paper tries to take the housing price of the cities in Shaanxi Province as the research object, according to the corrugated effect theory and the spatial metrology theory, based on the housing price and the related economic data, through the spatial econometric model and the correlation statistical method. Based on the analysis of the spatial correlation of housing prices among cities in Shaanxi Province, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the common expectation that housing prices continue to rise in various cities in Shaanxi Province has brought about a significant upward impact on housing prices. However, the expected increase of per capita disposable income of urban residents has a great impact on the expectation of housing price increase. (2) Spatial adjacent characteristics play a leading role in the spatial correlation effect of housing prices in Shaanxi Province, and on this basis, In the social and economic characteristics, the real estate return rate has a more significant impact on the spatial correlation of housing prices than the per capita disposable income. (3) per capita GDP, land transfer prices, The area of houses completed each year is the internal stable influence factor of each city's own housing price. However, the influence patterns of different factors on housing prices in different cities are different. (4) the housing prices between cities in Shaanxi Province appear different general inverted conduction relationship between the surrounding cities to push up the housing prices in central cities. Furthermore, this paper puts forward that the housing price control should be coordinated between the central city and the surrounding city according to the unique geographical location and the space conduction path of housing price in the three major plates of North Shaanxi-Guanzhong-South Shaanxi. At the same time, control the per capita GDP, land transfer price, annual completed housing area and other factors affecting urban housing prices, reduce the expectation of housing price rise. The conclusions and suggestions of this study are of great significance for the municipal government to formulate the regulation rules of regional housing prices and the provincial governments to establish the coordination mechanism of intercity housing market intervention.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23
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