本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格 + 購房者預(yù)期�。� 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)既有一般商品的屬性,亦具有作為投資產(chǎn)品的資產(chǎn)屬性。作為商品,價(jià)格波動(dòng)反映了供求雙方的力量對(duì)比,有利于淘汰落后的生產(chǎn)力；但近幾年我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格總體更多的呈現(xiàn)出量?jī)r(jià)齊升、量?jī)r(jià)齊跌的資本品價(jià)格特征。頻繁、劇烈的價(jià)格波動(dòng)不僅直接影響了房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的正常運(yùn)營(yíng)和國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,更會(huì)對(duì)普通剛需購房者的心理產(chǎn)生沖擊,造成社會(huì)的不穩(wěn)定。本文試圖從市場(chǎng)主體的預(yù)期為切入點(diǎn),為房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)提供新的視角和解釋,并提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策。 本文在對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格形成機(jī)制相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)及預(yù)期對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格形成作用文獻(xiàn)回顧后,第二章分析了市場(chǎng)預(yù)期對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格形成的影響。首先從微觀機(jī)制介紹了預(yù)期對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)的一般作用,其次闡述了市場(chǎng)預(yù)期在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)上的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,最后回顧國(guó)際上兩次重要的房地產(chǎn)泡沫中預(yù)期在其中的作用。 第三章對(duì)購房者預(yù)期視角下我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的描述性分析,分別對(duì)2002—2013年房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)特征、消費(fèi)者預(yù)期指數(shù)波動(dòng)的情況及波動(dòng)原因進(jìn)行了描述性分析,將期間房?jī)r(jià)與購房者預(yù)期比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)二者之間存在明顯的聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系,最后總結(jié)了購房者預(yù)期影響調(diào)控效果的路徑。 第四章實(shí)證研究我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與購房者預(yù)期的互動(dòng)關(guān)系,選取2007年3月—2013年11月全國(guó)商品房平均銷售價(jià)格、消費(fèi)者預(yù)期指數(shù)、工業(yè)增長(zhǎng)量、貨幣供應(yīng)量增長(zhǎng)率的月度數(shù)據(jù)替代變量商品房?jī)r(jià)格、購房者預(yù)期、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及寬松或緊縮的貨幣政策,然后分別進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、Granger因果分析及脈沖響應(yīng)分析。結(jié)果顯示,短期,預(yù)期不是影響房?jī)r(jià)的重要因素,但房?jī)r(jià)與預(yù)期具有長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系。購房者預(yù)期對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)波動(dòng)具有放大效應(yīng),針對(duì)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng),中央政府傾向于采取相機(jī)的緊縮或?qū)捤烧摺?最后對(duì)本文主要結(jié)論進(jìn)行了總結(jié),從優(yōu)化預(yù)期的角度給出了幾點(diǎn)建議,并指出本文的不足待改進(jìn)之處。
[Abstract]:Real estate has both the attributes of general commodities and assets as investment products. As a commodity, price fluctuation reflects the power contrast between supply and demand, which is conducive to the elimination of backward productive forces. Frequent and violent price fluctuations not only directly affect the normal operation of the real estate industry and the development of the national economy, but also have an impact on the psychology of ordinary rigid demand buyers, resulting in social instability. This paper tries to provide a new angle of view and explanation for the fluctuation of real estate price from the perspective of the expectation of the main body of the market, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures. After reviewing the literature on the formation mechanism of real estate price and the effect of expectation on the formation of real estate price, the second chapter analyzes the influence of market expectation on the formation of real estate price. This paper first introduces the general effect of expectation on the fluctuation of house price from the micro mechanism, then expounds the conduction mechanism of market expectation in real estate market, and finally reviews the role of expectation in the two important real estate bubbles in the world. The third chapter analyzes the characteristics of the real estate market, the fluctuation of consumer expectation index and the reasons of the fluctuation in the real estate market from 2002 to 2013. By comparing the house prices with the expectations of the buyers, we find that there is an obvious linkage relationship between the two. Finally, we summarize the path that the buyers' expectations affect the effect of regulation and control. The fourth chapter empirically studies the interactive relationship between real estate prices and buyers' expectations, and selects the national average sales price of commercial housing, consumer expectation index and industrial growth from March 2007 to November 2013. The monthly data of money supply growth rate replace commodity housing prices, buyers' expectations, economic growth and loose or tight monetary policies, and then carry out unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality analysis and impulse response analysis respectively. The results show that, in the short run, expectation is not an important factor affecting house price, but the relationship between house price and expectation is long term equilibrium. Home buyers are expected to have a magnifying effect on house price volatility, and the central government is inclined to take a camera tightening or easing policy in response to real estate price volatility. Finally, the main conclusions of this paper are summarized, some suggestions are given from the point of view of optimizing expectation, and the shortcomings of this paper are pointed out.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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