本文選題：房地產(chǎn)周期 + 政策�。� 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：過去十幾年中,中國房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展趨勢是整體上升的,但是期間有明顯的繁榮階段和蕭條階段,呈現(xiàn)出顯著的周期波動現(xiàn)象。政府為了房地產(chǎn)市場的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,頻繁出臺調(diào)控政策,但是政策最終并未達到平抑市場波動的效果,反而成為下一輪波動產(chǎn)生的誘因,使得我國市場的波動更為頻繁和劇烈。 本文通過從宏觀到微觀,從整體到局部的視角,運用理論和實證分析工具剖析了調(diào)控政策在我國房地產(chǎn)周期波動中的影響。首先,運用HP濾波法驗證我國房地產(chǎn)整體周期波動的存在性,同時通過構(gòu)建動態(tài)不一致模型解釋政策引起波動的方式和路徑。其次,本文運用EOF模型分析我國房地產(chǎn)區(qū)域性周期波動的差異性,論述政策在差異化市場環(huán)境下對周期波動的不同影響；最后,基于行為經(jīng)濟學(xué)理論構(gòu)建房地產(chǎn)行為機制模型,分析政策對波動的影響。 文本的主要結(jié)論為：1.從1998年到2012年我國房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)歷了4次半周期；2.我國房地產(chǎn)區(qū)域性周期波動的差異化明顯；3.政策是房地產(chǎn)周期波動變化的重要原因；4.增加交易環(huán)節(jié)稅費將加劇房地產(chǎn)周期波動。
[Abstract]:In the past ten years, the development trend of China's real estate market has been on the rise as a whole, but during the period there are obvious boom and bust stages, showing a significant cyclical fluctuations. For the sake of the healthy and stable development of the real estate market, the government has frequently introduced regulatory policies, but the policy has not finally achieved the effect of stabilizing the market fluctuations, but on the contrary has become an inducement for the next round of fluctuations. Make the fluctuation of our country market more frequent and violent. From the macro to micro perspective, from the whole to the local perspective, this paper analyzes the impact of the regulation and control policies on the periodic fluctuations of real estate in China by using theoretical and empirical analysis tools. Firstly, HP filtering method is used to verify the existence of the whole cycle fluctuation of real estate in China, and the dynamic inconsistent model is constructed to explain the way and path of the fluctuation caused by the policy. Secondly, this paper uses EOF model to analyze the difference of regional periodic fluctuation of real estate in our country, and discusses the different influence of policy on cycle fluctuation under the environment of differentiated market. Finally, based on the theory of behavioral economics, the paper constructs the behavior mechanism model of real estate. Analyze the impact of policy on volatility. The main conclusion of the text is: 1. From 1998 to 2012, China's real estate experienced four half-cycle. The differentiation of regional periodic fluctuation of real estate in China is obviously 3. 3%. Policy is an important reason for the fluctuation of real estate cycle. Increased transaction link taxes and fees will intensify the cycle of real estate fluctuations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：2063204