本文選題：貨幣政策 + 資產(chǎn)價(jià)格��； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的背景下,隨著資本市場的迅速發(fā)展和金融創(chuàng)新的不斷深化,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)呈現(xiàn)出劇烈化的趨勢,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格、貨幣政策與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)系日益密切。尤其是2008年美國次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的全球性金融危機(jī)后,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格破滅所帶來的嚴(yán)重后果使得人們再次將目光聚集在了資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)背景下貨幣政策應(yīng)該如何更好的發(fā)揮作用來降低實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)所遭受的創(chuàng)傷。本文在以上背景下,按照如下思路展開了研究:資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)是通過什么機(jī)制作用于實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融穩(wěn)定的?是否會(huì)對貨幣政策目標(biāo)造成影響?貨幣政策面對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)怎么樣更好的發(fā)揮作用?是否應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)作出反應(yīng)?本文通過理論與實(shí)證相結(jié)合的方法對上述問題進(jìn)行研究。通過構(gòu)建資產(chǎn)價(jià)格(包括股票價(jià)格、房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格)、產(chǎn)出缺口、通貨膨脹率、短期利率等經(jīng)濟(jì)變量在內(nèi)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)分析框架,對Talor規(guī)則進(jìn)行了拓展,即將資產(chǎn)價(jià)格因素作為內(nèi)生性目標(biāo)變量納入了貨幣政策反應(yīng)函數(shù),得出以下結(jié)論:我國貨幣政策對房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和股票價(jià)格波動(dòng)的反應(yīng)是不同的。對于股票市場,中央銀行僅僅是有所關(guān)注但并未對其價(jià)格波動(dòng)作出反應(yīng),而對于房地產(chǎn)市場,中央銀行并不僅局限于關(guān)注房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格,而是會(huì)采取相關(guān)政策對其進(jìn)行主動(dòng)干預(yù)。另外,本文還通過建立Logistic模型并用一系列解釋變量的觀測值分析貨幣政策操作規(guī)則,即影響貨幣政策操作發(fā)生概率的因素及程度,我們得出了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率、固定資產(chǎn)投資增長率對貨幣政策操作具有很大影響而通貨膨脹率、匯率、股票價(jià)格的影響并不顯著。通過理論分析與實(shí)證研究,本文提出如下政策建議:第一,應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)不斷修正貨幣政策框架,加強(qiáng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的關(guān)注,在最優(yōu)貨幣政策框架下,對央行實(shí)施貨幣政策的成本與收益進(jìn)行綜合分析,同時(shí)作出積極靈活的政策反應(yīng);第二,構(gòu)建廣義動(dòng)態(tài)價(jià)格指數(shù)作為其貨幣政策執(zhí)行的參考指標(biāo),以便更好地把握價(jià)格水平走勢;第三,持續(xù)推進(jìn)利率市場化改革,健全和完善以價(jià)格型為主的貨幣政策;第四,貨幣政策與金融監(jiān)管應(yīng)該積極配合協(xié)調(diào),共同應(yīng)對資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng);第五,資產(chǎn)市場存在嚴(yán)重的信息不對稱使貨幣政策將面臨巨大的不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn),中央銀行應(yīng)加強(qiáng)對市場信息的研究判斷。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global economic integration, with the rapid development of capital market and the deepening of financial innovation, the fluctuation of asset price is becoming more and more intense, and the relationship between asset price, monetary policy and real economy is becoming more and more close. Especially after the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, The serious consequences of asset price collapse make people focus on how monetary policy should play a better role in the background of asset price fluctuations in order to reduce the trauma suffered by the real economy. Under the above background, this paper carries on the research according to the following thought: through what mechanism does the asset price fluctuation affect the real economy and the financial stability? Will it have an impact on monetary policy objectives? How does monetary policy work better in the face of asset price volatility? Should we respond to fluctuations in asset prices? In this paper, the theoretical and empirical methods are used to study the above problems. The Talor rule is extended by constructing a macroeconomic analysis framework of asset prices (including stock prices, real estate prices), output gaps, inflation rates, short-term interest rates and other economic variables. The asset price factor is included in the monetary policy response function as an endogenous target variable, and the following conclusions are drawn: the response of monetary policy to the fluctuation of real estate price and stock price is different. For the stock market, the central bank only pays attention to it but does not react to its price fluctuation. For the real estate market, the central bank not only focuses on the real estate price, but also takes relevant policies to intervene in it. In addition, through the establishment of Logistic model and the observation of a series of explanatory variables to analyze the operational rules of monetary policy, that is, the factors and extent of influencing the probability of monetary policy operation, we obtain the economic growth rate. The growth rate of fixed assets investment has great influence on the operation of monetary policy, but the effect of inflation rate, exchange rate and stock price is not significant. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: first, we should constantly revise the monetary policy framework for asset price volatility, strengthen the attention to asset price volatility, and under the optimal monetary policy framework, The cost and benefit of the central bank's monetary policy are comprehensively analyzed, and the policy response is active and flexible. Secondly, the generalized dynamic price index is constructed as the reference index for the implementation of monetary policy. In order to better grasp the trend of the price level; third, to continuously promote the reform of marketization of interest rates, and to improve and improve the price-oriented monetary policy; fourth, the monetary policy and financial supervision should be actively coordinated and coordinated. Fifth, the serious information asymmetry in the asset market will make the monetary policy face huge uncertainty and risk, so the central bank should strengthen the research and judgment of the market information.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0

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