本文選題：資源型城市 + 房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)�。� 參考：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：依靠著當(dāng)?shù)刎S富的能源優(yōu)勢(shì),資源型城市逐步發(fā)展壯大起來。伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速騰飛及城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn),房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)迅速崛起。房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的高漲使得市場(chǎng)泡沫不斷膨脹,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益累積。由于房地產(chǎn)與地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的之間存在著復(fù)雜的互動(dòng)影響機(jī)制,使得房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)治理難度加大,同時(shí)也會(huì)導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)向地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的傳導(dǎo)。本文首先從房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)特性與資源型城市發(fā)展特性方面分析了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的成因,展現(xiàn)了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)從產(chǎn)生到觸發(fā)傳導(dǎo)的動(dòng)態(tài)演變過程。繼而,基于資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)視角,研究房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)為傳導(dǎo)途徑對(duì)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響機(jī)制。重點(diǎn)分析了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)通過財(cái)富效應(yīng)、投資效應(yīng)以及金融加速器效應(yīng)影響消費(fèi)與投資等經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出變量。并建立向量自回歸模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。結(jié)果顯示,房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)十分顯著,這使得當(dāng)房地產(chǎn)處于經(jīng)濟(jì)下行階段,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)通過財(cái)富效應(yīng)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)支出產(chǎn)生較大影響。但是,房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)于投資的直接影響效應(yīng)并不顯著,但金融加速器效應(yīng)的存在會(huì)放大其對(duì)投資的影響效應(yīng)。最后分析了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)整體發(fā)展的影響。從房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)總值的脈沖響應(yīng)與方差分解可以看出,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是真實(shí)存在的,但對(duì)比于經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)自身的貢獻(xiàn)率,這一影響并不顯著。這說明,做為能源主導(dǎo)型經(jīng)濟(jì)的資源型城市,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)只能在一定程度上影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展增速,而不能徹底改變地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。最后,根據(jù)以上研究,提出了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的治理對(duì)策。通過研究房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響機(jī)制,探尋促進(jìn)資源型城市房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的有效路徑。
[Abstract]:Depending on the local abundant energy superiority, the resource-based city develops and grows gradually. With the rapid development of economy and the advancement of urbanization, the real estate market is rising rapidly. The soaring real estate price causes the market bubble to expand unceasingly, the risk accumulates day by day. Because of the complex interactive mechanism between real estate and regional economic development, it is more difficult to manage real estate risk, and it will also lead to the transmission of real estate risk to regional economy. This paper first analyzes the causes of the real estate market risk from the characteristics of the real estate market and the development characteristics of resource-based cities, and shows the dynamic evolution process of the real estate market risk from its emergence to triggering transmission. Then, based on the perspective of asset price fluctuation, the paper studies the influence mechanism of real estate market risk on regional economy through the transmission of real estate price fluctuation. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of real estate market risk on economic output variables such as wealth effect, investment effect and financial accelerator effect. And establish vector autoregressive model for empirical research. The results show that the wealth effect of the real estate price fluctuation is very significant, which makes the real estate market risk have a great impact on the residents' consumption expenditure through the wealth effect when the real estate is in the stage of economic decline. However, the direct effect of real estate price fluctuation on investment is not significant, but the existence of financial accelerator effect will amplify its effect on investment. Finally, it analyzes the impact of real estate market risk on the overall development of regional economy. From the impulse response and variance decomposition of real estate price fluctuation to regional economic output, we can see that the impact of real estate market risk on regional economy is real, but compared with the contribution rate of economic fluctuation itself, This effect is not significant. This shows that, as a resource-based city, the risk of real estate market can only affect the economic growth rate to a certain extent, but can not completely change the regional economic development trend. Finally, according to the above research, put forward the real estate market risk management countermeasures. By studying the influence mechanism of real estate market risk on regional economy, this paper explores an effective way to promote the coordinated development of real estate industry and regional economy in resource-based cities.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F127

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