本文選題：房地產(chǎn)市場 + 庫存問題�。� 參考：《城市開發(fā)》2016年20期

【摘要】：正受房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)三年開發(fā)建設(shè)周期的影響,我國房地產(chǎn)市場也表現(xiàn)出三年小周期變化特征。當(dāng)前房地產(chǎn)市場已經(jīng)處于周期高位,下半年和明年房地產(chǎn)市場將逐步進(jìn)入周期下行階段,受人口紅利消失、經(jīng)濟(jì)下行等因素影響,未來幾年房地產(chǎn)投資將維持低增長態(tài)勢。從庫存情況看,去年以來住宅去庫存成效顯著,庫存問題主要為非住宅庫存壓力持續(xù)上升,住宅高庫存主要分布在經(jīng)濟(jì)不活躍地區(qū)。建議進(jìn)一步理清去庫存調(diào)控思路,在持續(xù)低利率背景下要有防風(fēng)險(xiǎn)底線;消化住宅庫存需要長短期政策相結(jié)合,不可一蹴而就;推進(jìn)供給側(cè)改革,促進(jìn)非住宅庫存消化;房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控要堅(jiān)持因地施策。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of the three-year development and construction cycle of the real estate industry, the real estate market of our country also shows the characteristics of the three-year small cycle change. The current real estate market has been in a high cycle, the second half and next year of the real estate market will gradually enter the cycle downward phase, due to the loss of demographic dividends, economic downturn and other factors, real estate investment in the next few years will maintain a low growth trend. From the stock situation, the housing destocking effect has been remarkable since last year, the inventory problem is mainly non-residential inventory pressure continues to rise, residential high inventory is mainly distributed in economically inactive areas. It is suggested to further clarify the idea of destocking regulation and control, to have the bottom line of risk prevention under the background of continuous low interest rate, to digest housing inventory by combining long-term and short-term policies, to promote supply-side reform, and to promote the digestion of non-residential inventory. Real estate regulation and control should adhere to local policy.
【作者單位】： 國家發(fā)改委投資研究所房地產(chǎn)中心;
【分類號】：F299.23

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