本文選題：商品房?jī)r(jià)格 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)政策�。� 參考：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1998年開(kāi)始，中國(guó)政府實(shí)施房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)改革，逐漸結(jié)束公有住房分配制度，實(shí)行住宅貨幣化。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長(zhǎng)和住宅貨幣制度改革的推進(jìn)，在商品房市場(chǎng)飛速發(fā)展的同時(shí)也使得我國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)急速上漲。商品房?jī)r(jià)格的上漲不僅影響到商品房市場(chǎng)本身的發(fā)展，同時(shí)也很大程度上影響到居民的購(gòu)買力，甚至短期內(nèi)產(chǎn)生商品房市場(chǎng)的“經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫”。為抑制商品房?jī)r(jià)格的非理性上漲，保證商品房市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展，國(guó)家出臺(tái)了一系列的宏觀調(diào)控政策，但商品房?jī)r(jià)格并未回歸到理性水平。 本文主要針對(duì)商品房市場(chǎng)暴露出來(lái)的問(wèn)題，從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面說(shuō)明了經(jīng)濟(jì)政策對(duì)商品房市場(chǎng)的調(diào)控問(wèn)題。首先，通過(guò)建立動(dòng)態(tài)博弈模型，在動(dòng)態(tài)不一致性問(wèn)題的框架下，從理論上分析了我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策調(diào)控商品房?jī)r(jià)格收效甚微的影響因素。其主要結(jié)論包括：如果一個(gè)政府過(guò)度的追求經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)或低失業(yè)率，整個(gè)國(guó)家就很可能承受一個(gè)較高的房?jī)r(jià)。同時(shí)，政府的失信行為也使得調(diào)控政策的效用減弱。政府調(diào)控房?jī)r(jià)的決心、政策的持續(xù)性以及社會(huì)公眾對(duì)商品房?jī)r(jià)格的關(guān)注程度很大程度上也影響了房?jī)r(jià)。 本文從宏觀調(diào)控層面通過(guò)建立VAR模型，利用2000.01—2012.07的月度數(shù)據(jù)，并運(yùn)用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)及Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)，，研究了國(guó)家宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策變化沖擊對(duì)商品房?jī)r(jià)格的動(dòng)態(tài)影響。實(shí)證表明：房產(chǎn)綜合稅的征收對(duì)抑制房?jī)r(jià)上漲起到的作用并不顯著，并且存在明顯的滯后性，此分析結(jié)論和我國(guó)現(xiàn)狀相符，國(guó)家急需進(jìn)行房產(chǎn)稅征收的改革。社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資總額是反映中國(guó)政府追求較高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的變量，由結(jié)論可知，社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資總額對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的上漲有明顯的推動(dòng)作用，也就是說(shuō)，如果一個(gè)政府過(guò)度的追求經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)會(huì)導(dǎo)致房?jī)r(jià)的明顯上漲，此結(jié)論與本文理論分析相吻合。利率的變化沖擊在短期內(nèi)對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)的影響微弱，并不顯著，在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)利率上漲能明顯的抑制房?jī)r(jià)的上漲，這也從一個(gè)側(cè)面反映了人們的預(yù)期能有效的影響房?jī)r(jià)。匯率用于反映國(guó)際資金對(duì)我國(guó)商品房?jī)r(jià)格的預(yù)期及影響，但此變量不能通過(guò)顯著性檢驗(yàn)，因此，剔除此因素。短期內(nèi)，信貸總額商品房?jī)r(jià)格影響不明顯，長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，存在明顯的助推作用。 最后，對(duì)全文進(jìn)行了總結(jié)，并根據(jù)本文主要結(jié)論提出相應(yīng)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, the Chinese government has implemented real estate market reform, gradually ending the public housing distribution system and implementing housing monetization. With the rapid growth of economy and the advance of the reform of the housing monetary system, the rapid development of the commercial housing market also makes the house price rise rapidly in our country. The rise of the commodity housing price not only affects the development of the commercial housing market itself, but also affects the purchasing power of the residents to a great extent, and even produces the "economic bubble" of the commodity housing market in the short term. In order to restrain the irrational rise of the commodity housing price and ensure the healthy development of the commercial housing market, the state has issued a series of macro-control policies, but the commodity housing price has not returned to the rational level. Aiming at the problems exposed in the commercial housing market, this paper explains the regulation and control of the commercial housing market by the economic policy from both the theoretical and the empirical aspects. First of all, by establishing a dynamic game model, under the framework of dynamic inconsistency, this paper theoretically analyzes the influence factors of China's economic policy to control the price of commercial housing with little effect. The main conclusions include: if a government too much pursuit of economic growth or low unemployment, the country is likely to bear a higher house prices. At the same time, the government's dishonest behavior also weakens the effectiveness of the regulatory policy. The determination of the government to regulate the house price, the persistence of the policy and the attention of the public to the price of the commodity house also affect the house price to a great extent. Based on the VAR model, the monthly data from 2000.01-2012.07, the impulse response function and the Granger causality test, this paper studies the dynamic influence of the impact of the macroeconomic policy changes on the commodity housing prices. The empirical results show that the collection of comprehensive real estate tax has no significant effect on restraining the rise of house prices, and there is obvious lag. This conclusion is consistent with the present situation of our country, and the country urgently needs to reform the collection of property tax. The total amount of social fixed assets investment is a variable reflecting the Chinese government's pursuit of a higher economic growth rate. From the conclusion, it can be seen that the total amount of social fixed assets investment has a significant role in promoting the rise of house prices, that is, If an excessive pursuit of economic growth by a government will lead to a marked rise in house prices, this conclusion is consistent with the theoretical analysis in this paper. The impact of interest rate changes on house prices in the short term is weak, not significant. In the long run, interest rate increases can significantly curb the rise of house prices, which also reflects that people's expectations can effectively affect house prices. The exchange rate is used to reflect the expectation and influence of international funds on the price of commercial housing in China, but this variable can not pass the significance test, so this factor is excluded. In the short-term, the impact of the total credit price of commercial housing is not obvious, long-term, there is a significant boost. Finally, the paper summarizes the full text and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations according to the main conclusions of this paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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