本文選題：“總體沖擊—傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制”假說 + FCI��； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)理論與經(jīng)濟(jì)管理》2017年06期

【摘要】：本文從總量宏觀分析的視角,提出了金融變量與房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的"總體沖擊—傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制"假說,據(jù)此用中國的數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建金融狀況指數(shù)(包含房?jī)r(jià)的FCI1和不包含房?jī)r(jià)的FCI2),再對(duì)金融狀況指數(shù)(FCI1和FCI2)與房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)做實(shí)證分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在資產(chǎn)價(jià)格中房?jī)r(jià)比股價(jià)更能反映一國的金融狀況;在引入金融狀況指數(shù)的金融變量中,利率與房?jī)r(jià)的相關(guān)性最強(qiáng);房?jī)r(jià)和利率對(duì)總產(chǎn)出的影響周期更長(zhǎng)。國房景氣指數(shù)、房地產(chǎn)投資指數(shù)和房?jī)r(jià)指數(shù)對(duì)FCI沖擊的響應(yīng)顯著,并存在不同的表現(xiàn)。由于房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)居民財(cái)富、金融狀況和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響顯著,貨幣政策理應(yīng)干預(yù)房?jī)r(jià),必須精準(zhǔn)把握干預(yù)的時(shí)機(jī)和干預(yù)的力度以及注重多種貨幣政策工具的有效搭配使用。
[Abstract]:This paper puts forward the hypothesis of "overall shock conduction mechanism" between financial variables and real estate market from the perspective of macro analysis of total amount.Based on the data of China, this paper constructs the financial condition index (FCI1 including house price and FCI2 without housing price, and then makes an empirical analysis on financial condition index FCI1 and FCI2) and real estate index.It is found that house price can reflect a country's financial situation more than stock price in asset price; interest rate has the strongest correlation with house price in the financial variable of introducing financial condition index; house price and interest rate have a longer period of influence on total output.The national housing boom index, real estate investment index and house price index have significant response to the impact of FCI, and there are different performance.Due to the significant influence of house price on residents' wealth, financial situation and macro economy, monetary policy should intervene in house price, and must grasp precisely the time and intensity of intervention and pay attention to the effective combination of various monetary policy tools.
【作者單位】： 南京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;南京大學(xué)中國特色社會(huì)主義經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;杭州師范大學(xué)阿里巴巴商學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)研究重大課題攻關(guān)項(xiàng)目 (10JZD025);教育部哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)重大課題攻關(guān)項(xiàng)目 (14JZD028)的資助
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832

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