本文選題：貨幣超發(fā)　切入點(diǎn)：GDP　出處：《上海師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：2013年4月12日,據(jù)中國(guó)人民銀行官方的統(tǒng)計(jì),中國(guó)廣義貨幣量(M2)的余額正式突破了100萬(wàn)億元大關(guān)。這一消息似乎把近年來(lái)被經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界熱議的“貨幣超發(fā)”問(wèn)題推向了高潮。相比M2的高速增長(zhǎng),GDP的增長(zhǎng)似乎有些脫節(jié),相比于過(guò)去幾年GDP的高速發(fā)展,目前GDP的增速似乎有所放緩。人們不禁發(fā)出這樣的疑問(wèn)：中國(guó)目前到底有沒(méi)有“貨幣超發(fā)”的現(xiàn)象,如果有的話,影響“貨幣超發(fā)”因素有哪些,“貨幣超發(fā)”將會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么樣的后果。雖然“貨幣超發(fā)”這一現(xiàn)象屬于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)范疇,實(shí)則與每個(gè)人的生活息息相關(guān)。因?yàn)椤柏泿懦l(fā)”最常見(jiàn)的后果就是通貨膨脹,而老百姓最直觀的感受無(wú)疑就是物價(jià)的上漲,生活成本的提高。因此,研究“貨幣超發(fā)”的成因和后果,找到貨幣超發(fā)的根源,為有關(guān)部門提出相關(guān)的建議,保障老百姓的切身利益就變得十分重要。帶著這樣的目的,本文從理論和建模角度出發(fā),全面系統(tǒng)的分析中國(guó)“貨幣超發(fā)”的問(wèn)題。 本文首先通過(guò)對(duì)我國(guó)M2/GDP的縱向比較,并且結(jié)合通貨膨脹率和一年期存款的實(shí)際利率等因素,綜合分析和比較后得出了我國(guó)目前確實(shí)是存在“貨幣超發(fā)”的現(xiàn)象的結(jié)論。在得出存在貨幣超發(fā)現(xiàn)象的結(jié)論后,利用曼昆《宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》中的貨幣需求函數(shù)以及我國(guó)實(shí)際的貨幣供應(yīng)量制定政策對(duì)導(dǎo)致我國(guó)貨幣超發(fā)的原因進(jìn)行分析。通過(guò)格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn),我國(guó)貨幣需求量的增長(zhǎng)除了受到GDP和CPI的影響以外,還受外匯占款過(guò)高和房?jī)r(jià)過(guò)高因素的影響。 找出了導(dǎo)致我國(guó)貨幣超發(fā)的原因后,利用廣義貨幣量M2增長(zhǎng)率代替實(shí)際貨幣增長(zhǎng)速度,食品,煙酒,醫(yī)療,居住,設(shè)備,交通,衣著,娛樂(lè)等八大價(jià)格指數(shù)2001年1月至2013年12月的月度數(shù)據(jù),通過(guò)平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn),格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn),協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),模型階數(shù)的確定后,建立計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的VAR模型來(lái)研究他們之間的相互關(guān)系,并通過(guò)VAR模型中的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：貨幣超發(fā)對(duì)食品，醫(yī)療和居住價(jià)格指數(shù)的影響最大，同樣的食品，醫(yī)療和居住價(jià)格的上漲也在一定程度上影響著我國(guó)貨幣超發(fā)的情況。 本文最后也提出了一些建議，要抑制貨幣超發(fā)必須提高單位貨幣的利用率，使單位貨幣創(chuàng)造出更多的GDP遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)比單純的控制貨幣發(fā)行量，提高銀行法定存款準(zhǔn)備金率和法定基準(zhǔn)利率要有用的多，此外提高外匯儲(chǔ)備使用范圍，出臺(tái)更多房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策也可以在一定程度上緩解貨幣超發(fā)的壓力。另一方面，物價(jià)部門也需要密切注意食品，醫(yī)療和居住的價(jià)格波動(dòng)，，嚴(yán)格控制好這三類價(jià)格的走勢(shì)，不僅能夠保障老百姓的切身利益，同時(shí)對(duì)貨幣超發(fā)也有一定的預(yù)防作用。
[Abstract]:On April 12, 2013, according to official statistics of the people's Bank of China, The balance of China's broad money volume has officially broken through the 100 trillion yuan mark. This news seems to have pushed the issue of "currency overshoot", which has been hotly discussed by economists in recent years, to a climax. Compared with the rapid growth of M2, it seems that the growth of gross domestic product is somewhat disjointed. Compared with the rapid development of GDP in the past few years, the current growth rate of GDP seems to be slowing down. People can't help but ask whether or not China has a "currency overshoot" phenomenon, if any. What are the factors that affect the "currency overshoot" and what kind of consequences the "currency overshoot" will have? although the phenomenon of "currency overshoot" belongs to the scope of macroeconomics, In fact, it is closely related to everyone's life. Because the most common consequence of "currency overshoot" is inflation, and the most intuitive feeling of the common people is undoubtedly the rise in prices and the increase in the cost of living. It is very important to study the causes and consequences of "currency overshoot", to find out the root cause of currency overshoot, to put forward relevant suggestions for relevant departments, and to protect the vital interests of the common people. With this purpose in mind, this paper sets out from the angle of theory and modeling. A comprehensive and systematic analysis of China's "currency overshoot" problem. In this paper, first of all, through the longitudinal comparison of China's M2/GDP, and combined with the inflation rate and the real interest rate of one-year deposits and other factors, After comprehensive analysis and comparison, it is concluded that the phenomenon of "currency overcirculation" does exist in our country at present. By using the money demand function and the actual money supply policy in Mancun, this paper analyzes the causes of the overcirculation of money in China, and finds out by Granger causality test, In addition to the influence of GDP and CPI, the growth of monetary demand in China is also affected by the excessive foreign exchange and housing prices. After finding out the reasons for the overcirculation of money in our country, we use the M2 growth rate of broad money to replace the real money growth rate, food, alcohol and tobacco, medical treatment, housing, equipment, transportation, clothing, The monthly data of eight major price indices, such as entertainment, from January 2001 to December 2013, passed the stability test, the Granger causality test, the cointegration test, and the determination of the model order. The VAR model in econometrics is established to study their interrelation. Through the impulse response function and variance analysis in VAR model, we find that the currency overshoot has the greatest influence on food, medical and residential price index, the same food. The rise in medical and housing prices has also affected our currency overshoot to a certain extent. At the end of this paper, some suggestions are put forward. In order to restrain the over-issuance of currency, we must improve the utilization rate of unit currency, and make the unit currency create more GDP than simply controlling the amount of currency circulation. It is much more useful to raise the bank's statutory reserve requirement ratio and statutory benchmark interest rate. In addition, increasing the scope of use of foreign exchange reserves and introducing more real estate regulation policies can also alleviate the pressure of currency overissuance to some extent. Price departments also need to pay close attention to food, medical and residential price fluctuations, strictly control the trend of these three prices, not only to protect the vital interests of the common people, but also to a certain extent to prevent currency overissuance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F822.2;F726;F224

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