本文選題：房地產價格　切入點：房地產供求　出處：《吉林大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產業(yè)是國民經濟的支柱產業(yè)，與許多行業(yè)具有極強的關聯(lián)性。合理的房地產價格是保持社會和諧和保障民生的關鍵。但是，中國房地產市場還不成熟，，存在價格持續(xù)高漲、市場供求結構不平衡、一二線城市房價漲幅過大等問題影響著我國房地產業(yè)的健康發(fā)展。因此，研究房地產價格影響因素尤為重要。國內外學者對房地產價格的研究很多，結果表明影響房地產價格的因素繁多且復雜。本文從經濟學經典供求理論入手，依據(jù)房地產價格由供求價格機制決定的思路，將影響房地產價格的眾多因素分為影響房地產需求、影響房地產供給和可以同時影響房地產需求和供給這三大類來研究，討論房價變化的原因，找出影響房價的主要因素。 本文首先介紹了房地產不同于其他商品所具有的的特點，描述了房地產需求和供給的特點。接著，分析了中國房地產價格現(xiàn)狀，得出房地產價格持續(xù)上漲、具有區(qū)域性和泡沫嚴重的結論，總結出影響房地產需求、房地產供給和同時影響房地產需求和供給的主要因素。然后，運用1998 2012年度數(shù)據(jù)對7個主要影響因素和房地產價格相關程度進行灰色關聯(lián)分析和因子分析，灰色關聯(lián)分析結果表明供給層面的變量與房地產價格相關性最大，土地財政問題是中國高房價的根源，可通過對存量房征收保有稅來改善地方政府依賴土地財政現(xiàn)狀。住宅竣工面積、人均可支配收入、GDP、貨幣供應量、房地產開發(fā)企業(yè)本年土地購置費用等與房地產價格密切相關，政府制定政策應從多層面入手。因子分子的結果將影響房地產價格的繁多變量分成了兩個主要因子，2000 2006年和2009年受反應預期房地產市場狀況的變量影響較大，2009年后房地產價格受現(xiàn)有房地產市場狀況的變量影響較大，反映出現(xiàn)階段市場剛需旺盛、國家限購等調控政策對投機需求有所抑制。最后，從調整房地產供求方面提出政策建議，房地產供給層面可通過制定房地產持有環(huán)節(jié)稅收政策、農村集體所有制土地流轉等改善地方政府依賴土地財政和壟斷土地一級市場現(xiàn)狀，加強治理土地市場來調整房地產供給結構；房地產需求層面可通過加大租賃性保障房建設緩解房地產剛需，建立住房信息制度來打擊投機需求；可通過貨幣政策同時影響房地產需求和供給。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is the pillar industry of the national economy and has a strong correlation with many industries. Reasonable real estate prices are the key to maintaining social harmony and ensuring the people's livelihood. However, the real estate market in China is not yet mature, and prices continue to rise. The unbalanced structure of market supply and demand and the excessive increase of house prices in the first and second tier cities affect the healthy development of the real estate industry in China. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the influencing factors of real estate prices. Many scholars at home and abroad have studied the real estate prices. The results show that the factors affecting real estate prices are various and complex. This paper starts with the classical theory of supply and demand in economics, according to the idea that real estate prices are determined by the price mechanism of supply and demand. The factors that affect real estate price are divided into three categories: real estate demand, real estate supply and real estate demand and supply. The paper discusses the reasons of house price change and finds out the main factors that affect real estate price. This paper first introduces the characteristics of real estate different from other commodities, describes the characteristics of real estate demand and supply. Then, it analyzes the current situation of real estate prices in China, and draws the conclusion that real estate prices continue to rise. With the conclusion of regional and bubble severity, the main factors affecting real estate demand, real estate supply and both real estate demand and supply are summarized. The grey correlation analysis and factor analysis of the seven main influencing factors and the correlation degree of real estate price are carried out with the data of 1998 and 2012. The results of grey correlation analysis show that the variables in the supply level are the most relevant to the real estate price. The land finance problem is the root cause of China's high house prices. It can improve the local governments' dependence on land finance by levying a retention tax on the stock of housing. Housing completed area, per capita disposable income of GDPs, money supply, The land acquisition costs of real estate development enterprises this year are closely related to the real estate prices. The result of the factors is divided into two main factors, 2000 and 2009, which are greatly affected by the expected real estate market conditions in 2006 and 2009. Post-real estate prices are greatly affected by the variables of the existing real estate market conditions, Reflecting the exuberant rigid demand in the market at the emergence stage, the regulation and control policies such as the national purchase restriction restrain the speculative demand to some extent. Finally, from the aspect of adjusting the supply and demand of real estate, some policy suggestions are put forward. The rural collective ownership land circulation and so on improves the local government to rely on the land finance and the monopoly land primary market present situation, strengthens the governance land market to adjust the real estate supply structure; The demand level of real estate can alleviate the rigid demand of real estate by increasing the construction of leasehold indemnificatory apartment, establish housing information system to combat speculative demand, and influence the demand and supply of real estate at the same time through monetary policy.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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