發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-08 03:36

  本文選題：通脹預(yù)期　切入點(diǎn)：SVAR模型　出處：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文首先基于我國央行2001年2季度（2001.03~2001.05）至2012年1季度（2011.12~2012.02）的儲(chǔ)戶問卷調(diào)查，使用C-P概率轉(zhuǎn)換法求得居民通脹預(yù)期序列。在對(duì)我國居民通脹預(yù)期的性質(zhì)進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)以后，發(fā)現(xiàn)我國居民的通脹預(yù)期是不完全理性的。 其次，作者使用SVAR模型框架深入研究其影響因素和形成機(jī)制，通過脈沖響應(yīng)圖分析了消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)、資產(chǎn)價(jià)格、總需求等宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量以及央行信息披露、實(shí)際干預(yù)對(duì)通脹預(yù)期的影響。對(duì)于其中的央行信息披露變量。本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，我國居民通脹預(yù)期受消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)以及房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響較大，要重點(diǎn)關(guān)注這兩個(gè)指標(biāo)的變動(dòng)情況，為管理通脹預(yù)期營造一個(gè)良好的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境；央行信息披露比傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策工具在引導(dǎo)居民預(yù)期方面時(shí)滯更短，但利率工具對(duì)通脹預(yù)期的影響程度從長期來看大于信息披露。因此，管理通脹預(yù)期時(shí)應(yīng)綜合運(yùn)用信息披露和實(shí)際干預(yù)，以使通脹預(yù)期在短期和長期內(nèi)都能得到良好錨定。 再次，，作者對(duì)我國部分年輕居民進(jìn)行了通脹預(yù)期問卷調(diào)查，發(fā)現(xiàn)日常消費(fèi)品價(jià)格、油價(jià)、過去的價(jià)格及走勢(shì)、貨幣供應(yīng)量、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、房價(jià)以及官方的信息披露等是影響通脹預(yù)期的重要因素。進(jìn)一步地，通過對(duì)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行l(wèi)ogistic建模，作者發(fā)現(xiàn)被調(diào)查者的通脹預(yù)期高低、通脹預(yù)期粘性在人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義上的異質(zhì)性并不明顯，而央行信任度的性別差異卻十分顯著。 最后，文章有針對(duì)性地給出了若干管理通脹預(yù)期的對(duì)策。例如建立并完善通脹預(yù)期的高頻監(jiān)測(cè)體系；控制好信貸投放規(guī)模，管理好流動(dòng)性；實(shí)行通脹目標(biāo)制；提高央行信息披露的有效性和聲譽(yù)等等。
[Abstract]:Based on the questionnaire survey conducted by the Central Bank of China in the second quarter of 2001, 2001.03 / 2001.05) to the first quarter of 2012 (2011.1212 / 2012.02), the C-P probabilistic transformation method is used to obtain the inflation expectation sequence of residents. It is found that the inflation expectations of Chinese residents are not completely rational. Secondly, the author uses the SVAR model framework to study the influencing factors and formation mechanism, and analyzes the macroeconomic variables, such as consumer price index, asset price, aggregate demand, and the information disclosure of the central bank through impulse response graph. The effect of actual intervention on inflation expectation. For the information disclosure variable of central bank, this paper finds that the consumer price index and real estate price influence the inflation expectation of Chinese residents. It is necessary to focus on the changes in these two indicators, so as to create a good macroeconomic environment for managing inflation expectations, and the information disclosure of the central bank has a shorter time lag than the traditional monetary policy tools in guiding residents' expectations. But interest rate instruments have a greater impact on inflation expectations in the long run than information disclosure. Therefore, the management of inflation expectations should be managed with a combination of information disclosure and actual intervention so that inflation expectations can be well anchored in the short and long term. Thirdly, the author conducted a questionnaire survey on inflation expectations among some young residents in China, and found that the prices of daily consumer goods, oil prices, past prices and trends, money supply, economic development level, Housing prices and official information disclosure are important factors affecting inflation expectations. Further, by using the logistic model of the survey data, the author finds that the inflation expectations of the respondents are high or low. The demographic heterogeneity of inflation expectation stickiness is not obvious, but the gender difference of central bank trust is very significant. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures to manage inflation expectation, such as establishing and perfecting the high frequency monitoring system of inflation expectation, controlling the scale of credit, managing the liquidity, implementing inflation target system; Improve the effectiveness and reputation of central bank information disclosure and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822.5

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 于光耀;徐娜;;中國通貨膨脹預(yù)期:理性還是適應(yīng)性[J];財(cái)經(jīng)科學(xué);2011年11期

2 肖曼君;周平;;央行信息披露對(duì)通貨膨脹預(yù)期及其偏差的影響——基于人民銀行的信息披露指數(shù)分析[J];財(cái)經(jīng)理論與實(shí)踐;2009年05期

3 李永寧;;通貨膨脹預(yù)期形成、錨定:基于消費(fèi)者和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期的分析[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2010年04期

4 張建偉;李妍;;通脹預(yù)期管理與貨幣政策目標(biāo):一個(gè)法律金融學(xué)的分析視角[J];法學(xué)雜志;2010年09期

5 陳滌非;李紅玲;王�；�;張建平;;通脹預(yù)期形成機(jī)理研究——基于SVAR模型的實(shí)證分析[J];國際金融研究;2011年03期

6 孫凱 ,秦宛順;建立完全獨(dú)立的中央銀行在我國缺乏現(xiàn)實(shí)可行性[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究參考;2005年23期

7 趙留彥;;中國通脹預(yù)期的卡爾曼濾波估計(jì)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)(季刊);2005年03期

8 黃秀梅;;能源價(jià)格與通貨膨脹預(yù)期——兼論通貨膨脹預(yù)期管理[J];金融理論與實(shí)踐;2010年08期

9 肖爭艷,陳彥斌;中國通貨膨脹預(yù)期研究:調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)方法[J];金融研究;2004年11期

10 肖爭艷;唐壽寧;石冬;;中國通貨膨脹預(yù)期異質(zhì)性研究[J];金融研究;2005年09期

本文編號(hào)：1582263