本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 房地產(chǎn)業(yè) 關(guān)系 格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)　出處：《貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近幾年來(lái),貴州省房地產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模發(fā)展迅速,房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資在GDP中的比重日趨上升,逐漸成為了貴州省國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要行業(yè)之一�；谠摤F(xiàn)實(shí)背景下,本文主要進(jìn)行了三方面的研究：第一,梳理房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的相關(guān)概念和解釋房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的理論關(guān)系。第二,通過(guò)對(duì)貴州省房地產(chǎn)業(yè)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)的整理,實(shí)證分析目前貴州省房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展階段,及與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系。第三,根據(jù)前述理論分析及實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果,來(lái)解釋貴州省房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀并提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。 對(duì)于第一個(gè)方面,本文首先介紹了房地產(chǎn)的相關(guān)概念,中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展階段并對(duì)近幾年的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策進(jìn)行分類整理及運(yùn)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原理來(lái)評(píng)價(jià)相關(guān)的調(diào)控政策。然后,運(yùn)用宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的相關(guān)理論假說(shuō)與理論模型來(lái)解釋房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系,在這里將二者的理論關(guān)系分為消費(fèi),投資,政府收入,房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格,房地產(chǎn)景氣循環(huán)等因素之間的關(guān)系分別來(lái)進(jìn)行闡述。 對(duì)于第二個(gè)方面,本文運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)方法,對(duì)貴州省房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資額與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系和貴州省商品房屋銷售額與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,得出的結(jié)論為貴州省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是房地產(chǎn)投資開(kāi)發(fā)額的格蘭杰原因,反之不成立；而貴州省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與商品房屋銷售額二者之間則相互不存在格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。 對(duì)于第三個(gè)方面,本文理論分析及實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果符合當(dāng)前貴州省房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資規(guī)模過(guò)度,商品房屋大量空置的現(xiàn)狀。政策建議主要是貴州省應(yīng)繼續(xù)加快城市化工業(yè)化的步伐,重視房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,解決收入分配差距過(guò)大的問(wèn)題及注重保障房建設(shè)等。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處有兩點(diǎn),第一,對(duì)近幾年國(guó)家房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策進(jìn)行分類,并運(yùn)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論來(lái)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)；第二,運(yùn)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論及計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的分析來(lái)說(shuō)明貴州省當(dāng)下的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,并提出了具有時(shí)效性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the scale of real estate industry in Guizhou has developed rapidly, and the proportion of real estate investment in GDP has been rising day by day, which has gradually become one of the important industries in Guizhou's national economy. This article mainly carries on the three aspects research: first, combs the real estate industry related concept and explains the real estate industry development and the economic growth theory relation. Second, through collates the Guizhou Province real estate industry correlation data, Empirical analysis of the current stage of development of the real estate industry in Guizhou Province and the relationship between the real estate industry and economic growth. Third, according to the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis results, to explain the current situation of the real estate industry in Guizhou Province and put forward corresponding policy recommendations. For the first aspect, this paper first introduces the related concepts of real estate, the development stage of real estate industry in China, classifies and arranges the real estate regulation and control policies in recent years and evaluates the relevant regulation and control policies by using economic principles. The relationship between the development of real estate industry and economic growth is explained by using the relevant theoretical hypothesis and theoretical model of macroeconomics. The theoretical relationship between them is divided into consumption, investment, government revenue, real estate price, etc. Real estate boom cycle and other factors to explain the relationship. For the second aspect, we use the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test in econometrics. The relationship between investment in real estate development and economic growth in Guizhou Province and the relationship between sales of commodity houses and economic growth in Guizhou Province are analyzed empirically. The conclusion is that the economic growth of Guizhou province is the Granger reason of the real estate investment and development, whereas the economic growth of Guizhou province and the sales of commodity houses do not exist Granger causality. For the third aspect, the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis agree with the excessive scale of investment in real estate development in Guizhou Province. The policy suggestion is that Guizhou Province should continue to speed up the pace of urbanization and industrialization, and attach importance to the coordinated development between the real estate industry and the national economy. Solve the problem that income distribution disparity is too big and pay attention to indemnificatory apartment construction and so on. There are two innovations in this paper. First, it classifies the national real estate regulation and control policies in recent years, and applies the economic theory to evaluate; second, This paper applies the theory of economics and econometrics to explain the current development of real estate industry in Guizhou province, and puts forward some policy suggestions with timeliness.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.27;F127

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