本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn) 組合預(yù)測(cè)模型 灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度 協(xié)調(diào)度 可持續(xù)發(fā)展　出處：《溫州大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要產(chǎn)業(yè)之一，是具有基礎(chǔ)性和先導(dǎo)性的產(chǎn)業(yè)，它與人民生活密切相關(guān)。除了能直接推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)外，其興衰還關(guān)系到國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)其他行業(yè)的發(fā)展。因此本文根據(jù)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)自身的特點(diǎn)，針對(duì)住房供需量、房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)其他行業(yè)關(guān)系、我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)、房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)可持續(xù)性等問(wèn)題，建立了更加完善的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)研究體系，逐步解決了以下問(wèn)題： （1）針對(duì)住房需求問(wèn)題，建立了單因素改進(jìn)指數(shù)模型，并運(yùn)用組合預(yù)測(cè)模型和干預(yù)分析模型進(jìn)行住房需求量的預(yù)測(cè)，結(jié)果吻合較好。 （2）依據(jù)住房分層供給體系建立住房供給量的數(shù)學(xué)模型，并計(jì)算出各收入群體的住房供給量，得到總住房供給量的預(yù)測(cè)值，并進(jìn)行了相關(guān)情況分析。 （3）構(gòu)建了房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)其他行業(yè)的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度模型，，并經(jīng)過(guò)回歸分析和相關(guān)系數(shù)分析得到了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)其他行業(yè)的關(guān)系。 （4）從房地產(chǎn)商開發(fā)意愿與居民購(gòu)買實(shí)力和意愿兩個(gè)系統(tǒng)構(gòu)建了房地產(chǎn)業(yè)態(tài)勢(shì)發(fā)展模型，通過(guò)定義房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)滿足率，對(duì)兩個(gè)子系統(tǒng)之間的協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系進(jìn)行了論證。 （5）建立了基于協(xié)調(diào)度的可持續(xù)發(fā)展模型，構(gòu)建了居民購(gòu)買力評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng)與房?jī)r(jià)系統(tǒng)，綜合分析了兩個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)和兩者間博弈態(tài)勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:As one of the important industries of the national economy, the real estate industry is a basic and leading industry, which is closely related to the people's life. Therefore, according to the characteristics of real estate industry, according to the quantity of housing supply and demand, the relationship between real estate industry and other industries of national economy, the development trend of real estate industry in our country is also related to the development of other industries of national economy. The sustainability of the real estate industry and other issues, the establishment of a more perfect real estate industry research system, gradually solved the following problems:. 1) in order to solve the housing demand problem, a single factor improved index model is established, and the combined forecasting model and the intervention analysis model are used to forecast the housing demand. The results are in good agreement with each other. (2) the mathematical model of housing supply is established according to the housing stratified supply system, and the housing supply of each income group is calculated, the forecast value of the total housing supply is obtained, and the relevant situation is analyzed. The grey relational degree model of real estate industry and other industries of national economy is constructed, and the relationship between real estate industry and other industries of national economy is obtained by regression analysis and correlation coefficient analysis. 4) the development model of real estate industry situation is constructed from the two systems of real estate developers' development intention and residents' purchase strength and willingness. The coordination relationship between the two subsystems is demonstrated by defining the real estate industry satisfaction rate. 5) the sustainable development model based on coordination degree is established, and the evaluation system of purchasing power of residents and the house price system are constructed. The development situation of the two subsystems and the game situation between the two subsystems are analyzed synthetically.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：溫州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F224;O242.1

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本文編號(hào)：1522118