本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn)企業(yè) 海外融資 債券VAR模型　出處：《對(duì)外經(jīng)貿(mào)》2016年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái)以房地產(chǎn)公司為代表的中國(guó)企業(yè)在海外發(fā)行美元債券和票據(jù)融資的頻率與額度屢創(chuàng)新高,引起了社會(huì)各界的廣泛關(guān)注,目前房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的走弱已成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行的重大壓力之一。從中、美兩國(guó)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)視角建立基于利差、匯率和私人無(wú)擔(dān)保外債的VAR模型,用定量手段分析出中國(guó)企業(yè)集中發(fā)行美元債券融資現(xiàn)象產(chǎn)生的原因在于前些年人民幣兌美元的持續(xù)升值和較大的中美利差,并且揭示了這種融資模式在當(dāng)前中美經(jīng)濟(jì)周期不同步的情況下潛在的貨幣錯(cuò)配風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。研究認(rèn)為,中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)應(yīng)當(dāng)加強(qiáng)對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的研判能力,并據(jù)此調(diào)整自身負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu)以避免經(jīng)營(yíng)績(jī)效的惡化,逐步降低杠桿率尤其是以美元計(jì)價(jià)的負(fù)債在企業(yè)負(fù)債中的比例。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Chinese enterprises, represented by real estate companies, have repeatedly set new highs in the frequency and amount of US dollar bond and paper financing issued overseas, which has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life. The weakening of the real estate market has become one of the major pressures on China's economic downturn. From this point of view, the United States and the United States have established a VAR model based on spreads, exchange rates and private unsecured foreign debt. Quantitative analysis shows that the reasons for the phenomenon of concentrated issuance of US dollar bonds by Chinese enterprises lie in the continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in previous years and the large spread between Chinese and US interest rates. It also reveals the potential currency mismatch risk in the current Sino-US business cycle. The study suggests that Chinese real estate companies should strengthen their ability to judge the macroeconomic environment. In order to avoid the deterioration of operating performance, the debt structure should be adjusted accordingly, and the leverage ratio, especially dollar-denominated liabilities, should be gradually reduced.
【作者單位】： 首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F299.233.42

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