本文關(guān)鍵詞： 住宅價格 房地產(chǎn)泡沫 土地政策 金融政策 稅收政策　出處：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來房地產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展迅速，但是在發(fā)展的同時也存在著嚴(yán)重的問題，主要問題體現(xiàn)在住宅價格的持續(xù)上漲，尤其是2004年以來，住宅價格的快速上漲。住宅市場的繁榮發(fā)展一方面促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，另一方面會使很多居民難以承受如此高昂的房價。 本文以我國住宅價格為研究對象，以住房與住房服務(wù)、資產(chǎn)定價與供求定價、房地產(chǎn)泡沫、影響因素的計量分析及住宅價格調(diào)控政策效果分析為研究框架。 首先，本文對住房及住房服務(wù)進(jìn)行了區(qū)分，并定義了房地產(chǎn)泡沫及測度泡沫工具—房價收入比、房價租售比兩個指標(biāo)；對住宅資產(chǎn)定價及房地產(chǎn)市場供求定價理論進(jìn)行了論述，并理順二者的關(guān)系；最后從住房供求兩方面對住宅價格的影響因素進(jìn)行分類論述，提出理論假設(shè)。 其次，在進(jìn)行實證分析前對我國土地市場的特殊性進(jìn)行了梳理，并指出地價對住宅價格的影響；然后以全國30個大中城市的1998年至2011年9個解釋變量的面板數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建計量分析模型，從住房供求兩方面對住宅價格的影響因素進(jìn)行了計量分析；并對住宅用地價格、房價預(yù)期與住宅價格之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗。 再次，本文總結(jié)了歷年房價調(diào)控政策，在實證分析的基礎(chǔ)上對我國房價調(diào)控政策進(jìn)行效果分析；主要從土地政策、金融政策及稅收政策3個方面來進(jìn)行分析。 最后，，本文的研究結(jié)論總結(jié)了本文的研究成果以及存在的不足。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate market has developed rapidly, but at the same time there are also serious problems, the main problems are reflected in the continued rise in housing prices, especially since 2004. The boom in the housing market will boost the economy on the one hand and make it difficult for many residents to afford such high prices on the other. This paper takes housing price as the research object, housing and housing service, asset pricing and supply and demand pricing, real estate bubble, influencing factors and the effect of housing price regulation policy analysis as the research framework. First of all, this paper distinguishes housing and housing services, and defines the real estate bubble and the measurement of bubble instruments-house price income ratio, housing rent to sales ratio two indicators; This paper discusses the theory of housing asset pricing and real estate market supply and demand pricing, and straightens out the relationship between them. Finally, the paper classifies and discusses the influencing factors of housing price from two aspects of housing supply and demand, and puts forward theoretical hypotheses. Secondly, the particularity of China's land market is combed before the empirical analysis, and the impact of land price on housing price is pointed out. Then based on the panel data of 9 explanatory variables from 1998 to 2011 in 30 large and medium-sized cities in China, the econometric analysis model is constructed, and the influencing factors of housing price are analyzed from the two aspects of housing supply and demand. And Granger causality test is carried out on the relationship between residential land price, house price expectation and housing price. Thirdly, this paper summarizes the housing price control policies over the years, on the basis of empirical analysis of China's housing price control policy effect analysis; Mainly from the land policy, the financial policy and the tax policy three aspects carries on the analysis. Finally, the conclusion of this paper summarizes the research results and shortcomings.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1461378