本文選題：電子商務 + 出口��； 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：近幾年來,"互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+"的概念已經(jīng)深入人心,比如電子商務、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融(ITFIN)、在線旅游、在線影視、在線房產(chǎn)等等都耳熟能詳。"互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+"催生出無數(shù)新興行業(yè),促使經(jīng)濟形態(tài)不斷地發(fā)生演變,從而為實體經(jīng)濟傾注活力,并且為改革、創(chuàng)新和發(fā)展提供了廣闊的網(wǎng)絡平臺,這些都是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)思維積極實踐的成果。2015年6月10日的國務院常務會議上,李克強總理指出:促進跨境電子商務健康快速發(fā)展,用"互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+外貿(mào)"實現(xiàn)優(yōu)進優(yōu)出,有利于擴大消費、推動開放型經(jīng)濟發(fā)展升級、打造新的經(jīng)濟增長點。能否抓住這個機遇,關鍵問題在于如何有效地運用電子商務發(fā)展來推動我國對外貿(mào)易的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。隨著"一帶一路"國家戰(zhàn)略的實施,絲綢之路經(jīng)濟帶和海上絲綢之路日漸成型,在全球出口低迷的情況下,"網(wǎng)上絲綢之路"——跨境電子商務的發(fā)展是我國傳統(tǒng)外貿(mào)通過"互聯(lián)網(wǎng)+外貿(mào)"實現(xiàn)轉型升級的必然選擇。因此,為了順應時代潮流,響應國家頂層戰(zhàn)略,本文基于"一帶一路"沿線國家的樣本,研究電子商務發(fā)展對中國出口貿(mào)易的動態(tài)影響。在對現(xiàn)有相關文獻進行梳理的基礎上,本文首先構建了測度電子商務發(fā)展水平的指標體系,并且利用熵權法,使用相關數(shù)據(jù)測算出了 1999-2014年中國電子商務發(fā)展指數(shù),然后基于UNcomtrade數(shù)據(jù)庫6位HS產(chǎn)品編碼的雙邊貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù),測算出了 1999-2014年中國向"一帶一路"沿線60個國家出口的二元邊際。從交易成本理論、貿(mào)易中介理論、貿(mào)易成本理論、貿(mào)易風險理論四個角度分析了電子商務發(fā)展對出口貿(mào)易的影響。根據(jù)電子商務發(fā)展對出口貿(mào)易影響的模型分析,構建計量模型,然后運用向量自回歸模型(PVAR模型)進行實證研究。在對數(shù)據(jù)進行平穩(wěn)性檢驗的基礎上,確定PVAR模型的最優(yōu)滯后階數(shù),基于廣義矩估計(GMM估計)、脈沖響應函數(shù)、方差分解,探究電子商務發(fā)展對中國出口,尤其是二元邊際的動態(tài)影響軌跡。通過理論與實證分析,得出幾點結論:(1)電子商務發(fā)展對出口額一直表現(xiàn)為正向作用,對出口增長的動態(tài)影響軌跡趨勢一致,均是先正后負,再正,然后逐漸收斂,并且對集約邊際變動的貢獻度大于對擴展邊際的變動。(2)出口市場規(guī)模促進了二元邊際的增長,抑制了出口額的增長,并且是對出口額變動貢獻度最高的因素,對擴展邊際變動的貢獻度大于對集約邊際的變動。(3)生產(chǎn)率水平制約出口額的增長,是所有因素中貢獻率最小的,對二元邊際的消極影響也很大,但從第二期開始對擴展邊際產(chǎn)生微小的正向影響,并且對擴展邊際變動的貢獻度大于對集約邊際的變動。(4)出口目的國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶數(shù)量對出口額產(chǎn)生負向影響,對二元邊際主要表現(xiàn)為促進作用,但在第二期會抑制擴展邊際的增長,并且對集約邊際變動的貢獻度是所有因素中最大的。根據(jù)研究結論,本文提出了幾點相應的政策建議:(1)充分發(fā)揮電子商務發(fā)展對二元邊際的積極作用,并規(guī)避各種風險;(2)充分挖掘出口市場消費潛力,適當增加出口產(chǎn)品異質性;(3)降低出口貿(mào)易成本,尤其是固定成本;(4)促進科技進步,提高生產(chǎn)率水平。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the concept of "Internet plus" has been popular, such as e-commerce, Internet Banking (ITFIN), online travel, online video, online real estate are for having heard it many times and so on. "Internet plus" spawned numerous emerging industries, promote economic pattern changed, so as to pour vitality of the real economy, and reform innovation, and The exhibition provides a broad platform, these are the executive meeting of the State Council Internet thinking actively practice the achievements of.2015 in June 10th, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out: to promote the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, "Internet plus foreign trade to achieve better into the excellent, is conducive to the expansion of consumption, promote the upgrading of the open economy, create new The economic growth point. Can seize this opportunity, the key question is how to effectively use the electronic commerce development to promote the sustainable development of foreign trade in China. With the implementation of the "The Belt and Road national strategy, Silk Road Economic Belt and maritime silk road gradually formed, in the global export downturn," the road online silk" - cross-border e-commerce is the development of China's traditional foreign trade through the "Internet plus foreign trade" to achieve the transformation and upgrading of the inevitable choice. Therefore, in order to adapt to the trend of the times, in response to the national top-level strategy, based on "The Belt and Road along the country's sample, research on e-commerce development dynamic effect of Chinese on existing export trade. Related article On the basis of combing, this paper first constructs an index system to measure the development level of e-commerce, and uses the entropy weight method to calculate the 1999-2014 year China e-commerce development index by using the relevant data. Then, based on the dual trade data encoded by the 6 bit HS product of the UNcomtrade database, it calculates the China to "1999-2014 years". The Belt and Road "along the 60 countries export two yuan. The marginal transaction cost theory, intermediary trade theory, trade cost theory, four aspects of trade risk theory to analyze the impact of Electronic Commerce on the export trade. According to the analysis model of the influence of e-commerce development on export trade, establishing the econometric model, and then use the vector from the back On the basis of the stability test of the data, the optimal lag order of the PVAR model is determined, based on the generalized moment estimation (GMM estimation), the impulse response function and the variance decomposition, on the basis of the stability test of the data, to explore the dynamic influence path of the development of electronic commerce to China's export, especially the two yuan margin. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, the theoretical and empirical analysis is carried out. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the development of e-commerce has been positive to the export volume, and the trend of the dynamic impact on the export growth is consistent, both positive and negative, then positive, and then gradually converging, and the contribution to the intensive marginal change is greater than that of the extension marginal. (2) the scale of the export market has promoted the growth of the margin of two yuan. The increase in export volume is inhibited and the highest contribution to the export turnover is the factor of contribution to the marginal change. (3) the productivity level restricts the growth of the export volume, which is the smallest contribution rate in all factors and the negative effect on the two yuan margin, but from the second period to the expansion side There is a small positive impact on the margin, and the contribution to the marginal change is greater than that of the intensive marginal change. (4) the number of Internet users in the export destination country has a negative impact on the export volume, which is the main promoting effect on the marginal margin of the two yuan, but in the second period it will inhibit the growth of the extended marginal and contribute to the intensive marginal change. It is the biggest of all factors. According to the conclusion of the study, this paper puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions: (1) give full play to the positive role of e-commerce development to the two yuan margin and avoid various risks; (2) fully excavate the export market consumption potential, appropriately increase the heterogeneity of export products; (3) reduce export trade costs, especially fixed costs. (4) promote the progress of science and technology and improve the level of productivity.
【學位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F752.62;F724.6

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