【摘要】：房地產業(yè)作為我國經濟的基礎性產業(yè)、支柱性產業(yè),為我國的經濟發(fā)展和社會建設作出重大貢獻,深深影響著我國經濟社會進步、人民安居樂業(yè)。隨著城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展,大量的農村剩余勞動力及非農人口涌入城鎮(zhèn),他們工作、生活及消費的行為增加了對房地產業(yè)市場的需求,同時對房地產市場的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展有了更高的要求,促進房地產的發(fā)展速度及發(fā)展質量。而傳統(tǒng)城鎮(zhèn)的快速發(fā)展,導致對房地產市場的需求迅速上漲,市場需求的急增導致大量的問題出現(xiàn),這些亟待解決的問題給政府和居民生活帶來沉重的負擔,對房地產業(yè)及城鎮(zhèn)化的健康持續(xù)發(fā)展產生了阻礙作用。在新型城鎮(zhèn)化進程中,對房地產市場的需求不僅僅在于數(shù)量,更注重質量,在新型城鎮(zhèn)化的背景下,如何實現(xiàn)房地產市場健康、穩(wěn)定、長期的可持續(xù)發(fā)展是值得研究的問題。本文在研讀國內外學者現(xiàn)有的相關文獻和研究成果的基礎上,對傳統(tǒng)城鎮(zhèn)化、新型城鎮(zhèn)化以及房地產業(yè)相關理論進行了梳理,對我國目前城鎮(zhèn)化和房地產現(xiàn)狀及存在的問題進行了深入分析,闡述了在新型城鎮(zhèn)化背景下房地產業(yè)面臨的機遇和挑戰(zhàn),從定性方面探討了城鎮(zhèn)化的發(fā)展進程對房地產市場需求的影響機制,運用縱向比較法分析了城鎮(zhèn)化進程對房地產投資額、房地產價格的影響,在理論研究上明確了新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展對房地產業(yè)發(fā)展的促進作用。從實證研究的角度,首先對城鎮(zhèn)化率、房地產投資額、房地產市場需求以及房地產價格序列進行平穩(wěn)性分析,其次將他們進行協(xié)整檢驗,最后在橫向與縱向上運用格蘭杰因果檢驗方法對我國城鎮(zhèn)化水平與我國房地產投資額、房地產市場需求、房地產市場價格進行了因果關系檢驗,實證結果表明,新型城鎮(zhèn)化水平的提高對房地產投資額、房地產市場需求、房地產市場價格起到積極作用。最后,針對制約我國新型城鎮(zhèn)化與房地產市場發(fā)展的不協(xié)調因素,如城鎮(zhèn)建設過程中過度擴張、城鎮(zhèn)建設缺乏科學合理的規(guī)劃、對土地資源的粗放利用以及房地產市場無秩序發(fā)展,提出了在新型城鎮(zhèn)化背景下我國房地產業(yè)健康可持續(xù)的政策建議:重視開發(fā)新城及舊城改造,做好城鎮(zhèn)人口對住房需求的合理預測,編制科學合理的城鎮(zhèn)總體發(fā)展規(guī)劃,根據(jù)當?shù)匚幕l(fā)展房地產業(yè)。
[Abstract]:As the basic industry and pillar industry of our economy, the real estate industry has made great contributions to the economic development and social construction of our country, which has deeply affected the economic and social progress of our country and the people living and working in peace and contentment. With the development of urbanization, a large number of rural surplus labor and non-agricultural population poured into cities and towns. Their behavior of working, living and consuming increased the demand for the real estate market. At the same time, there are higher requirements for the healthy and stable development of the real estate market, to promote the development speed and quality of real estate. The rapid development of traditional towns leads to a rapid rise in demand for the real estate market, and a rapid increase in market demand leads to a large number of problems, which urgently need to be solved bring a heavy burden to the government and residents. It hinders the healthy and sustainable development of real estate industry and urbanization. In the process of new urbanization, the demand for real estate market lies not only in quantity but also in quality. Under the background of new urbanization, how to realize the healthy, stable and long-term sustainable development of real estate market is worth studying. On the basis of studying the existing literature and research results of scholars at home and abroad, this paper combs the theories of traditional urbanization, new urbanization and real estate industry. This paper deeply analyzes the present situation and problems of urbanization and real estate in China, and expounds the opportunities and challenges faced by the real estate industry under the background of new urbanization. This paper discusses the influence mechanism of urbanization on the demand of real estate market qualitatively, and analyzes the influence of urbanization process on real estate investment and real estate price by means of longitudinal comparative method. In the theoretical study, the new type of urbanization on the promotion of real estate development role. From the perspective of empirical research, first of all, the urbanization rate, real estate investment, real estate market demand and real estate price sequence are analyzed stably, and then cointegration tests are carried out. Finally, the paper uses Granger causality test to test the causality between urbanization level and real estate investment, real estate market demand and real estate market price. The improvement of new urbanization level plays a positive role in real estate investment, real estate market demand and real estate market price. Finally, aiming at the uncoordinated factors that restrict the development of new urbanization and real estate market in China, such as excessive expansion in the process of urban construction, the lack of scientific and reasonable planning for urban construction. Based on the extensive utilization of land resources and the disorderly development of the real estate market, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate industry in China under the background of new urbanization: pay attention to the development of new cities and the transformation of old cities. It is necessary to make a reasonable forecast of the housing demand of the urban population, to draw up a scientific and reasonable overall urban development plan, and to develop the real estate industry according to the local culture.
【學位授予單位】：黑龍江省社會科學院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F299.23;F299.21

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