本文選題：產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級　切入點(diǎn)：大學(xué)生就業(yè)　出處：《南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：自1999年高校擴(kuò)招,到2014年高校畢業(yè)生突破727萬人,僅僅十幾年的時間,大學(xué)生就業(yè)完成了從"包分配"到"就業(yè)難"的痛苦轉(zhuǎn)變,連續(xù)幾年的"最難就業(yè)季"讓大學(xué)生就業(yè)成為各級政府面臨的重要問題。相關(guān)學(xué)者也對此作了大量的研究,其中產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級被列為解決大學(xué)生就業(yè)難問題的重要舉措之一;也有學(xué)者認(rèn)為,大學(xué)生就業(yè)也能反過來促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級。但大多學(xué)者都是對兩個問題做單向研究,對兩個變量之間可能存在的內(nèi)生性或相互影響研究較少,其評估結(jié)果的有效性有待考究。因此,本文通過建立聯(lián)立方程模型,運(yùn)用三階段最小二乘法進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)估計,以有效估計產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級與大學(xué)生就業(yè)之間的相互影響,期望對政府決策提供理論參考。文章首先從理論上分析了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級與大學(xué)生就業(yè)之間的相關(guān)性,并對2001-2012年全國與東中西分區(qū)域的產(chǎn)業(yè)占比與大學(xué)生就業(yè)比例數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行列表匯總,并做出趨勢圖,發(fā)現(xiàn)二三產(chǎn)業(yè)占比與大學(xué)生就業(yè)比例發(fā)展趨勢相近。然后,利用這12年間32個省市的面板數(shù)據(jù),分別對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級方程和大學(xué)生就業(yè)方程進(jìn)行固定效應(yīng)單方程估計發(fā)現(xiàn):產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級與大學(xué)生就業(yè)之間并沒有明顯的因果關(guān)系。但通過三階段最小二乘法進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)性回歸發(fā)現(xiàn):一方面,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級能顯著促進(jìn)大學(xué)生就業(yè),但作用效果較小;另一方面,大學(xué)生就業(yè)能顯著促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級,且作用效果很大。最后,為了比較區(qū)域之間的差異和保證回歸結(jié)果的穩(wěn)健性,文章分別對東、中、西部產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù)與大學(xué)生就業(yè)比例進(jìn)行三階段最小二乘估計發(fā)現(xiàn):顯著性與全國數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果一致,從而證明了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級與大學(xué)生就業(yè)之間確實(shí)是聯(lián)立互動的。對回歸系數(shù)進(jìn)行比較分析后,可得到結(jié)論:中國目前沒有顯著的技能偏向型技術(shù)進(jìn)步,并且區(qū)域之間兩者之間的作用效果存在顯著的差異。在上述研究分析的基礎(chǔ)上,本文對促進(jìn)大學(xué)生就業(yè)和促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級提出了相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:From 1999 to 2014, the number of college graduates has exceeded 7.27 million. In just over ten years, college students' employment has completed the painful transformation from "distribution" to "difficult employment". The "most difficult Employment season" for several years has made the employment of college students an important problem faced by governments at all levels. Related scholars have also done a lot of research on it, among which the upgrading of industrial structure has been listed as one of the important measures to solve the problem of employment difficulties of college students. Some scholars believe that the employment of college students can also promote the upgrading of the industrial structure in turn. However, most scholars do one-way research on the two problems, but there is little research on the possible endogenous or interactive influence between the two variables. The validity of the evaluation results remains to be studied. Therefore, by establishing the simultaneous equation model and using the three-stage least square method to estimate the interaction between the industrial structure upgrading and the employment of college students, this paper makes an effective estimation of the interaction between the industrial structure upgrading and the employment of college students. This paper first analyzes the correlation between the upgrading of industrial structure and the employment of college students. And from 2001 to 2012, the paper makes a summary of the data of industrial proportion and employment ratio of college students in China and East and West subregions, and makes a trend map, and finds that the ratio of secondary and tertiary industries is similar to the employment ratio of college students. Then, Using panel data from 32 provinces and cities over these 12 years, The fixed effect single equation estimation of industrial structure upgrading equation and college students employment equation respectively shows that there is no obvious causal relationship between industrial structure upgrading and college students' employment, but through the three-stage least square method, it is found that there is no obvious causal relationship between industrial structure upgrading and college students' employment. Systematic regression found that: on the one hand, The upgrading of industrial structure can significantly promote the employment of college students, but the effect is relatively small. On the other hand, the employment of college students can significantly promote the upgrading of industrial structure, and the effect is very great. Finally, In order to compare the regional differences and ensure the robustness of the regression results, the paper makes a three-stage least square estimation of the industrial structure data and the employment ratio of college students in the east, middle and west of the country, and finds that the results are consistent with the results of the national data. By comparing and analyzing the regression coefficient, we can conclude that there is no significant technological progress in China at present. And there are significant differences between the two regions. On the basis of the above research and analysis, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations to promote the employment of college students and promote the upgrading of industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F121.3;F249.2

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