本文關(guān)鍵詞： 對(duì)外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu) 貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu) 服務(wù)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu) 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)前中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)之間的同源關(guān)系存在一定的背離現(xiàn)象,彼此之間不能形成良性的互動(dòng)升級(jí)關(guān)系,導(dǎo)致對(duì)中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生不良影響。因此,深入研究中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的影響,探索通過(guò)優(yōu)化對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整升級(jí)具有很強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。針對(duì)上述問(wèn)題,本文在深入分析對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系、對(duì)外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的影響機(jī)理的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)實(shí)證分析檢驗(yàn)了中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的作用過(guò)程。首先,本文采用并改進(jìn)了測(cè)度產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)更加合理的指標(biāo)——"產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化"和"產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化"進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。其次,本文把對(duì)外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)的概念拓展為貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)以及被已有研究所忽略的服務(wù)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)。最后,通過(guò)協(xié)整分析、誤差修正模型和脈沖響應(yīng)分析得到了對(duì)外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的長(zhǎng)期影響關(guān)系、短期調(diào)整效應(yīng)和動(dòng)態(tài)影響關(guān)系。實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示:長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,中國(guó)貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)(GST)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)具有正向的促進(jìn)作用,但在短期中國(guó)貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)(GST)對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)影響并不顯著;而服務(wù)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)(SST)無(wú)論是長(zhǎng)期、短期還是動(dòng)態(tài)影響,對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)合理化和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高度化或者是影響不顯著,或者是有一定的抑制作用。該結(jié)果也證實(shí)了當(dāng)前中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)間具有一定背離現(xiàn)象的觀點(diǎn)。由此本文得出以下結(jié)論:對(duì)于貨物貿(mào)易,在長(zhǎng)期中,由于工業(yè)制成品的凈出口有助于中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),因此中國(guó)應(yīng)該繼續(xù)注重工業(yè)制成品等高附加值產(chǎn)品的出口,通過(guò)優(yōu)化貨物貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)達(dá)到促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)的目的。但是此做法并不能在短期內(nèi)有效地促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級(jí),可見(jiàn)解決中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的問(wèn)題需要站在長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展的角度,統(tǒng)籌規(guī)劃,穩(wěn)步推進(jìn),不可一蹴而就。對(duì)于服務(wù)貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu),目前最緊迫的問(wèn)題應(yīng)首先繼續(xù)發(fā)展服務(wù)貿(mào)易,進(jìn)一步提高進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易額的同時(shí),擺脫多年來(lái)服務(wù)貿(mào)易逆差的困境。其次,繼續(xù)保持中高技術(shù)服務(wù)貿(mào)易凈出口的勢(shì)頭,擴(kuò)大高附加值產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易。
[Abstract]:At present, the homologous relationship between China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure is deviated from each other to a certain extent, and can not form a benign interactive and upgrading relationship between each other, which leads to a negative impact on China's economic development. It is of great practical significance to deeply study the influence of China's foreign trade structure on the upgrading of industrial structure and to explore how to optimize the structure of foreign trade to promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. Based on the deep analysis of the relationship between foreign trade structure and industrial structure, the influence mechanism of foreign trade commodity structure on industrial structure upgrading, Through the empirical analysis, this paper examines the process of the effect of China's foreign trade commodity structure on the upgrading of industrial structure. First of all, This paper adopts and improves the more reasonable indicators to measure the upgrading of industrial structure-"rationalization of industrial structure" and "high level of industrial structure". Secondly, In this paper, the concept of commodity structure of foreign trade is extended to the structure of trade in goods and the structure of trade in services which has been neglected by existing research. The error correction model and impulse response analysis show that the foreign trade commodity structure has a long-term effect on industrial structure upgrading, a short-term adjustment effect and a dynamic impact relationship. China's goods trade structure (GST) has a positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure, but in the short term China's goods trade structure (GST) has no significant effect on the upgrading of industrial structure, while the service trade structure (SST) has no significant impact on the industrial structure upgrading in the long, short or dynamic. It does not have a significant impact on the rationalization of the industrial structure and the upgrading of the industrial structure, The results also confirm the view that there is a certain deviation between China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure. The following conclusions are drawn in this paper: for trade in goods, in the long run, Since net exports of manufactured goods contribute to the upgrading of China's industrial structure, China should continue to focus on exports of high value-added products such as manufactured goods. By optimizing the structure of trade in goods, we can achieve the purpose of promoting industrial upgrading. However, this approach cannot effectively promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the short term. Therefore, it can be seen that to solve the problem of upgrading the industrial structure in China, we need to stand at a long-term development point of view. As for the structure of trade in services, the most pressing issues at present should first continue to develop trade in services, while further increasing the volume of trade between imports and exports. Second, we should continue to maintain the momentum of net exports of medium-to-high-tech services trade and expand trade in high-value-added products.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F752.6;F121.3

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