本文關(guān)鍵詞： 農(nóng)業(yè)規(guī)劃 主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)選方法 理論模型 流程圖設(shè)計與軟件開發(fā) 實測分析　出處：《中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨著我國經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展進入新常態(tài),傳統(tǒng)農(nóng)業(yè)正向現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)過渡。農(nóng)業(yè)規(guī)劃在農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展中發(fā)揮著規(guī)范指導(dǎo)和引領(lǐng)作用,越來越受到企業(yè)和各級政府的重視。農(nóng)業(yè)規(guī)劃實操中,區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)的優(yōu)選是規(guī)劃者需要解決的核心問題之一,明確規(guī)劃區(qū)域內(nèi)需要發(fā)展的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)才能有效整合農(nóng)業(yè)資源、延長產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),對區(qū)內(nèi)“三農(nóng)”問題產(chǎn)生統(tǒng)領(lǐng)性的把控。在傳統(tǒng)的農(nóng)業(yè)規(guī)劃方法中,主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)的選擇多依賴于規(guī)劃者的經(jīng)驗、當(dāng)?shù)仡I(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的意見和企業(yè)家的偏好,亟需大力研發(fā)“農(nóng)業(yè)規(guī)劃區(qū)內(nèi)主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)選方法”并制成輔助軟件,提供農(nóng)業(yè)規(guī)劃手段與技術(shù)的突破。本文在總結(jié)國內(nèi)外研究進展的前提下,對主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)選的理論與方法進行了系統(tǒng)梳理,為優(yōu)選方法體系的研究奠定了基礎(chǔ)。區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)選方法體系研究通過三個過程實現(xiàn):理論模型構(gòu)建、流程圖設(shè)計與軟件開發(fā)、軟件的實測。理論模型從區(qū)域已有產(chǎn)業(yè)與區(qū)域引入產(chǎn)業(yè)兩類產(chǎn)業(yè)入手,選擇了政策、社會、經(jīng)濟、資源環(huán)境4類規(guī)劃影響度較高的一、二級指標(biāo),使用了6類具有引領(lǐng)帶動價值的產(chǎn)業(yè)評價因素及子因素,設(shè)計了4個算法模塊,采用多因素分析、層次分析法和德爾菲法對于區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)進行優(yōu)選分析,為開發(fā)使用簡介、易操作的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)選分析軟件提供支持。根據(jù)理論方法,在設(shè)計邏輯較完善的流程圖、模型庫與數(shù)據(jù)庫樣板的基礎(chǔ)上,將方法分為輸入產(chǎn)業(yè)處理模塊、區(qū)域已有產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)選模塊、區(qū)域引入產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)選模塊、加權(quán)偏好處理模塊和產(chǎn)業(yè)排名輸出模塊五種模塊,以此開發(fā)規(guī)劃輔助軟件。文章選擇湖北省棗陽市為規(guī)劃區(qū)域,以九類已有產(chǎn)業(yè)與三種區(qū)域引入產(chǎn)業(yè)為研究對象,對軟件進行實測分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)生豬養(yǎng)殖業(yè)與蔬菜種植業(yè)最具主導(dǎo)潛力,同時應(yīng)大力發(fā)展涉農(nóng)服務(wù)業(yè)與光伏發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)。
[Abstract]:With the economic and social development of our country entering the new normal, traditional agriculture is transitioning to modern agriculture. Agricultural planning plays a normative and leading role in the development of agricultural modernization. More and more enterprises and governments at all levels of attention. In the practice of agricultural planning, regional agricultural leading industry selection is one of the core problems that planners need to solve. In order to effectively integrate agricultural resources, prolong industrial chain, optimize industrial structure and control the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers in the region, it is necessary to make clear the leading industries that need to be developed in the planning area, which is in the traditional agricultural planning method. The choice of leading industries depends on the experience of planners, the opinions of local leaders and the preferences of entrepreneurs, so it is urgent to develop and develop the "method of selecting leading industries in agricultural planning areas" and make auxiliary software. On the premise of summarizing the research progress at home and abroad, this paper systematically combs the theory and method of leading industry selection. It lays a foundation for the research of the optimal selection method system. The research of the regional agricultural leading industry optimal selection method system is realized through three processes: theoretical model construction, flow chart design and software development. The theoretical model starts with the two kinds of industries: the existing industry in the region and the industry in the region, and selects the first and second grade indexes which have a higher degree of influence on the planning of the policy, society, economy and resources and environment. Using 6 kinds of industry evaluation factors and sub-factors with leading driving value, four algorithm modules are designed, using multi-factor analysis, analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method to select and analyze the regional industries. This paper provides support for developing the software of selecting and analyzing the leading industry which is easy to operate. According to the theory and method, it is based on the design of logical flow chart, model base and database template. The method is divided into five modules: the input industry processing module, the regional industrial optimal selection module, the region introducing the industrial optimal selection module, the weighted preference processing module and the industrial ranking output module. This paper selects Zaoyang City of Hubei Province as the planning area and takes nine kinds of existing industries and three kinds of regions to introduce industries as the research object. It is found that pig breeding and vegetable planting have the most dominant potential, and agricultural service industry and photovoltaic power generation industry should be developed vigorously.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F327

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