【摘要】：縱觀中國歷史的發(fā)展，不難發(fā)現(xiàn)“養(yǎng)老”一直是一個非常重要的話題，現(xiàn)階段我國實行的養(yǎng)老保險制度是社會統(tǒng)籌與個人賬戶相結合。我們的研究則以養(yǎng)老保險基金為研究對象，對其收支的平衡情況進行分析。我們在分析我國基本養(yǎng)老保險制度改革的短期和長期問題的時候,把定性與定量的方法進行了有效地結合,同時在數(shù)據分析和預測的時候應用了數(shù)學模型，使得研究過程更加謹慎，研究結果更加客觀。我們通過建立社會養(yǎng)老保險基金平衡精算模型，結合搜集到的吉林省的實際數(shù)據，，對本省的養(yǎng)老保險基金收支的平衡問題進行了深入地探究，并在文章最后給出了建議并做出了展望。 我們在第一章中，論述了選題的背景、界定了本文關注的研究問題同時給出了明確的研究思路及研究方法,并構建了文章的基本框架。本文的第二章，集中論述了養(yǎng)老保險、精算學的相關基本概念，為下文針對模型和相關數(shù)據展開的研究提供了豐富的理論支撐。在第三章中，選擇特定的養(yǎng)老保險精算模型,然后就其中的參數(shù)進行分析假設，最后代入數(shù)據，計算并預測未來吉林省養(yǎng)老保險收入和支出的數(shù)據以及結余，同時提出為以后模型的完善及更待深入研究問題的建議。在第四章中，給出結論并提出對未來的展望與設想。
[Abstract]:Throughout the development of Chinese history, it is not difficult to find that "old-age support" has always been a very important topic. At present, the old-age insurance system implemented in China is the combination of social co-ordination and individual accounts. Our research takes the endowment insurance fund as the research object, carries on the analysis to its income and expenditure balance. When we analyze the short-term and long-term problems of the reform of the basic old-age insurance system in our country, we combine the qualitative and quantitative methods effectively, and at the same time apply the mathematical model in the analysis and prediction of the data. It makes the research process more careful and the results more objective. Through the establishment of the social endowment insurance fund balance actuarial model, combined with the actual data collected in Jilin Province, we deeply explore the balance of the income and expenditure of the endowment insurance fund in this province. At the end of the article, some suggestions and prospects are given. In the first chapter, we discuss the background of the topic, define the research issues concerned in this paper, at the same time, give the clear research ideas and research methods, and construct the basic framework of the article. The second chapter of this paper focuses on the basic concepts of old-age insurance and actuary, which provides a rich theoretical support for the research on the model and related data. In the third chapter, select the specific actuarial model of the endowment insurance, then analyze the parameters of the model, and then substitute the data into the data, calculate and predict the future income and expenditure data and balance of Jilin Province's endowment insurance. At the same time, some suggestions are put forward for the further improvement of the model and the further study of the problem. In the fourth chapter, the conclusion is given and the prospects and assumptions for the future are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.67

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本文編號：2430463