中國保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-06 12:45
【摘要】：摘要：外部性研究是經(jīng)濟學(xué)研究中的一個長盛不衰的熱點問題。近年來興起的金融領(lǐng)域的外部性研究,為揭示現(xiàn)代金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟增長之間的因果關(guān)系提供了可靠的實證方法。保險業(yè)作為現(xiàn)代金融體系的重要組成部分,經(jīng)濟外溢效應(yīng)顯著,對其溢出機制和溢出績效的實證研究是國內(nèi)外研究的重點之一。尤其是中國保險業(yè),其在發(fā)展過程中展現(xiàn)出了旺盛的生命力和顯著的外部性效果,因此,對中國保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性進行系統(tǒng)實證研究具有重要的理論意義與現(xiàn)實價值。 本文首先對中國保險業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進行全面分析與評價,通過對保險業(yè)與經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)聯(lián)性實證來檢驗保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性效果。在此基礎(chǔ)上,從產(chǎn)業(yè)功能的視角對中國保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性產(chǎn)生原理進行解析,并分別基于Feder兩部門模型和預(yù)防性儲蓄理論拓展模型對外溢路徑和溢出渠道進行研究,構(gòu)建起中國保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性溢出機制模型。 在理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,通過對全國24個省市地區(qū)進行廣泛的問卷調(diào)查獲得大量原始數(shù)據(jù),詳細的調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)分析和Logit二元離散模型實證檢驗顯現(xiàn)了現(xiàn)階段中國保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性溢出特征。隨后,本文運用2003年～2012年全國31個省市地區(qū)的面板數(shù)據(jù),在對Feder兩部門模型進行理論拓展的基礎(chǔ)上,采用兩部門Panel Data模型對中國保險業(yè)的生產(chǎn)外部性進行實證研究,結(jié)果表明,保險能顯著影響非保險部門的產(chǎn)出,中國保險業(yè)的生產(chǎn)外溢效應(yīng)系數(shù)為0.1142。通過引入保險消費這一影響因素,構(gòu)建基于預(yù)防性儲蓄理論的VAR拓展模型,運用1980年～2010年間的年度時序數(shù)據(jù)對中國保險業(yè)的消費外部性進行實證研究,結(jié)果顯示,保險能有效促進消費和收入的增長,在長期內(nèi)保險消費對社會消費的促進作用穩(wěn)定在5%的水平。 基于以上研究,本文得出如下主要結(jié)論： (1)中國保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性根源于經(jīng)濟補償、資金融通和社會管理三大產(chǎn)業(yè)功能,在此基礎(chǔ)上衍生出共享資源、優(yōu)化配置、提升效率、推動創(chuàng)新、擴大投資、深化金融、促進消費、擴大內(nèi)需、管控風(fēng)險、提升素質(zhì)、和諧社會等一系列經(jīng)濟外溢效應(yīng)。 (2)調(diào)研實證顯示,中國保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性溢出渠道主要有規(guī)模經(jīng)濟溢出、投資溢出、消費溢出、技術(shù)溢出、知識溢出與人力溢出等數(shù)種。 (3)基于兩部門Panel Data模型的實證表明,保險作為一種重要的生產(chǎn)要素投入,會顯著影響非保險部門的產(chǎn)出進而促進經(jīng)濟增長。經(jīng)測算,對非保險部門每增加1%的保險要素投入,會產(chǎn)生國民經(jīng)濟增長0.1142%的保險生產(chǎn)外溢效應(yīng)。 (4)基于預(yù)防性儲蓄理論的VAR拓展模型實證顯示,保險通過降低個體未來的經(jīng)濟不確定性,可有效釋放全社會的預(yù)防性儲蓄,提升儲蓄向投資轉(zhuǎn)化的效率,保險消費的增加,短期內(nèi)會帶來社會邊際消費傾向同比增加0.09,長期內(nèi)對社會消費的促進作用穩(wěn)定在5%的水平。 本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于：(1)首次構(gòu)建了較為完整的中國保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性作用體系,在金融領(lǐng)域的外部性理論研究方面有所拓展； (2)對中國保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性進行廣泛問卷調(diào)研,并運用Logit二元離散模型進行實證檢驗,展現(xiàn)了中國保險業(yè)的經(jīng)濟外部性特征； (3)對Feder兩部門模型和預(yù)防性儲蓄理論進行了相應(yīng)地理論拓展與創(chuàng)新,并在此基礎(chǔ)上分別構(gòu)建兩部門Panel Data模型和VAR模型對中國保險業(yè)的生產(chǎn)與消費外部性進行實證研究。
[Abstract]:Abstract: Externality is a hot issue in the study of economics. In recent years, the research of the externality in the financial field has provided a reliable and positive method for revealing the causal relationship between the development of modern finance and economic growth. As an important part of the modern financial system, the insurance industry is an important part of the modern financial system, and the empirical research on the overflow mechanism and the overflow performance of the insurance industry is one of the key points of the research at home and abroad. In particular, China's insurance industry has shown strong vitality and significant externality in the process of development. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical value to carry out a systematic and empirical study on the economic externality of the insurance industry in China. In this paper, the development of the insurance industry in China is analyzed and evaluated, and the economic externality effect of the insurance industry is verified by the correlation between the insurance industry and the economic growth. Based on this, the paper analyzes the principle of the economic externality of China's insurance industry from the perspective of industrial function, and makes a research on the spillover and overflow channel based on the two-sector model of the Federation and the model of preventive saving. Research and Construction of the Mechanism of Economic Externality of China's Insurance Industry Based on the theoretical analysis, a large number of raw data is obtained through a wide survey of 24 provinces and cities throughout the country. The detailed investigation data analysis and the analysis of the Logit binary discrete model show the economic externality of the insurance industry in China at present. Then, using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in the country from 2003 to 2012, based on the theoretical development of the two-sector model of the Federation, the two-sector Panel Data model is used to make an empirical study on the production externalities of the insurance industry in China. The results show that the insurance can significantly affect the output of the non-insurance sector, and the production spillover effect factor of China's insurance industry is 0.1. 142. By introducing the influence factor of the insurance consumption, the VAR expansion model based on the preventive saving theory is constructed, and the consumption externality of the insurance industry in China is studied by using the annual timing data between 1980 and 2010, and the result shows that the insurance can effectively promote consumption and income The growth of the long-term insurance consumption on social consumption is stable at 5% Based on the above research, this paper concludes that The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The economic externality of China's insurance industry is rooted in the function of economic compensation, financing and social management. Efficiency, promoting innovation, expanding investment, deepening finance, promoting consumption, expanding domestic demand, controlling risk, improving quality, and building a harmonious society (2) The economic externality of China's insurance industry is mainly characterized by the economic overflow, the overflow of investment, the overflow of the consumption, the overflow of technology, the overflow of knowledge, and the spillover effect of the economic externalities of the Chinese insurance industry. (3) Based on the two-sector Panel Data model, insurance is an important input of production factors, which can significantly affect the non-insurance sector. The output of the non-insurance sector, in turn, contributes to the growth of the economy. It is estimated that an increase of 1% of the insurance elements in the non-insurance sector will result in an increase of 0.114 in the national economy 2% of the insurance production spillover effect. (4) Based on the empirical analysis of the VAR model of the preventive saving theory, the insurance can effectively release the preventive saving of the whole society by reducing the economic uncertainty of the individual's future, and improve the saving-to-investment The efficiency of conversion, the increase of insurance consumption, the social marginal consumption tendency in the short term will increase by 0.09, and the social consumption in the long term The innovation of this paper is that: (1) It is the first time to construct a more complete system of economic externalities of China's insurance industry. The external theory of the domain has been expanded; (2) for China The economic externalities of the insurance industry conduct a wide-ranging questionnaire survey and use the Logit binary discrete model to carry out the empirical test. The paper presents the economic externality of the insurance industry in China, and (3) the model and the pre-processing of the two parts of the Federation. In this paper, the theoretical development and innovation of the anti-sexual saving theory are carried out, and the two-sector Panel Data model and the VAR model pair are built on the basis of the theory.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842;F224
本文編號：2366047
[Abstract]:Abstract: Externality is a hot issue in the study of economics. In recent years, the research of the externality in the financial field has provided a reliable and positive method for revealing the causal relationship between the development of modern finance and economic growth. As an important part of the modern financial system, the insurance industry is an important part of the modern financial system, and the empirical research on the overflow mechanism and the overflow performance of the insurance industry is one of the key points of the research at home and abroad. In particular, China's insurance industry has shown strong vitality and significant externality in the process of development. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical value to carry out a systematic and empirical study on the economic externality of the insurance industry in China. In this paper, the development of the insurance industry in China is analyzed and evaluated, and the economic externality effect of the insurance industry is verified by the correlation between the insurance industry and the economic growth. Based on this, the paper analyzes the principle of the economic externality of China's insurance industry from the perspective of industrial function, and makes a research on the spillover and overflow channel based on the two-sector model of the Federation and the model of preventive saving. Research and Construction of the Mechanism of Economic Externality of China's Insurance Industry Based on the theoretical analysis, a large number of raw data is obtained through a wide survey of 24 provinces and cities throughout the country. The detailed investigation data analysis and the analysis of the Logit binary discrete model show the economic externality of the insurance industry in China at present. Then, using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in the country from 2003 to 2012, based on the theoretical development of the two-sector model of the Federation, the two-sector Panel Data model is used to make an empirical study on the production externalities of the insurance industry in China. The results show that the insurance can significantly affect the output of the non-insurance sector, and the production spillover effect factor of China's insurance industry is 0.1. 142. By introducing the influence factor of the insurance consumption, the VAR expansion model based on the preventive saving theory is constructed, and the consumption externality of the insurance industry in China is studied by using the annual timing data between 1980 and 2010, and the result shows that the insurance can effectively promote consumption and income The growth of the long-term insurance consumption on social consumption is stable at 5% Based on the above research, this paper concludes that The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The economic externality of China's insurance industry is rooted in the function of economic compensation, financing and social management. Efficiency, promoting innovation, expanding investment, deepening finance, promoting consumption, expanding domestic demand, controlling risk, improving quality, and building a harmonious society (2) The economic externality of China's insurance industry is mainly characterized by the economic overflow, the overflow of investment, the overflow of the consumption, the overflow of technology, the overflow of knowledge, and the spillover effect of the economic externalities of the Chinese insurance industry. (3) Based on the two-sector Panel Data model, insurance is an important input of production factors, which can significantly affect the non-insurance sector. The output of the non-insurance sector, in turn, contributes to the growth of the economy. It is estimated that an increase of 1% of the insurance elements in the non-insurance sector will result in an increase of 0.114 in the national economy 2% of the insurance production spillover effect. (4) Based on the empirical analysis of the VAR model of the preventive saving theory, the insurance can effectively release the preventive saving of the whole society by reducing the economic uncertainty of the individual's future, and improve the saving-to-investment The efficiency of conversion, the increase of insurance consumption, the social marginal consumption tendency in the short term will increase by 0.09, and the social consumption in the long term The innovation of this paper is that: (1) It is the first time to construct a more complete system of economic externalities of China's insurance industry. The external theory of the domain has been expanded; (2) for China The economic externalities of the insurance industry conduct a wide-ranging questionnaire survey and use the Logit binary discrete model to carry out the empirical test. The paper presents the economic externality of the insurance industry in China, and (3) the model and the pre-processing of the two parts of the Federation. In this paper, the theoretical development and innovation of the anti-sexual saving theory are carried out, and the two-sector Panel Data model and the VAR model pair are built on the basis of the theory.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842;F224
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