【摘要】：隨著人口老齡化,經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)性減緩,養(yǎng)老金管理收益率低下等問(wèn)題的出現(xiàn),我國(guó)社會(huì)保障體系的可持續(xù)性面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn),為了保障未來(lái)老年人的生活,維護(hù)社會(huì)的穩(wěn)定,對(duì)未來(lái)中長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的收支規(guī)模進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),做好未雨綢繆的準(zhǔn)備是我們目前要解決的重大問(wèn)題。 本文將對(duì)2011-2050年內(nèi)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金的收支缺口進(jìn)行了精算預(yù)測(cè)。通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)、人口學(xué)等多學(xué)科建立人口發(fā)展預(yù)測(cè)模型、社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金的收支模型,測(cè)算未來(lái)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金的缺口規(guī)模,分析造成缺口的原因并提出了兩項(xiàng)措施改革。 利用人口發(fā)展預(yù)測(cè)模型預(yù)測(cè)了2011-2050年間城鎮(zhèn)人口分年齡段的男女?dāng)?shù),并在此基礎(chǔ)上分別計(jì)算了城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金負(fù)擔(dān)人口數(shù)和繳費(fèi)人口數(shù)。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,繳費(fèi)人口在2039年后下降,并且下降趨勢(shì)非常明顯,負(fù)擔(dān)人口在逐年上升,并與繳費(fèi)人口之間的差距越來(lái)越小,到2050年兩者的數(shù)據(jù)接近,人口老齡化越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重。 利用城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支預(yù)測(cè)模型,預(yù)測(cè)了2011-2050年之間的收支缺口和累計(jì)結(jié)余。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2025年開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)收支缺口,隨著時(shí)間推移缺口擴(kuò)大,2050年收支缺口額度占2011年GDP,總值(473104億元)的5%,2032年累計(jì)結(jié)余開(kāi)始負(fù)債,隨著時(shí)間推移負(fù)債逐漸變大,2050年負(fù)債總額度占到2011年GDP,總值的48%。 2025年-2034年轉(zhuǎn)軌成本是造成城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金出現(xiàn)缺口的主要原因,2035年之后人口老齡化取代轉(zhuǎn)軌成本,變?yōu)橹饕颉?建議采取延遲退休年齡和劃撥國(guó)有股份進(jìn)入社保基金的方法來(lái)緩解養(yǎng)老金缺口對(duì)財(cái)政的壓力。2015-2050年間退休年齡男性提高5歲,女性提高7歲；2013-2050年間劃撥55%的國(guó)有股份進(jìn)入社保基金,這兩項(xiàng)改革都能有效地推遲缺口出現(xiàn)的時(shí)間,但不能消除缺口,若兩者同時(shí)實(shí)施,2050年前收支缺口不會(huì)出現(xiàn),基本上能實(shí)現(xiàn)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金的可持續(xù)性。
[Abstract]:With the aging of the population, economic structural slowdown, low pension management rate of return and other problems, the sustainability of our social security system is facing a huge challenge, in order to ensure the future life of the elderly and maintain social stability. It is an important problem that we should solve at present to forecast the income and expenditure scale of pension insurance in the medium and long term in the future and to prepare well in advance. This paper makes an actuarial prediction on the gap between income and expenditure of social pension for urban enterprises in 2011-2050. Through statistics, demography and other multi-disciplinary models, the forecast model of population development and the income and expenditure model of social overall pension are established to calculate the scale of the gap of social overall pension for employees of urban enterprises in China in the future. The causes of the gap are analyzed and two measures are put forward. The population development forecast model is used to predict the number of men and women in urban population by age group in 2011-2050, and on this basis, the number of social pension burden population and the contributory population of urban enterprise workers and staff are calculated respectively. The data show that the contributory population declined after 2039, and the downward trend is very obvious. The burden population is rising year by year, and the gap between the contributory population and the contributory population is becoming smaller and smaller. By 2050, the data of the two groups are close, and the aging population is becoming more and more serious. Based on the forecast model of social overall pension income and expenditure of urban enterprises, the gap of income and expenditure and the accumulated balance between 2011 and 2050 are predicted. The data show that there began to be a shortfall in income and expenditure in 2025. With the expansion of the gap over time, the deficit in 2050 accounted for 5% of the total GDP, in 2011 (47.3104 trillion yuan). The accumulated balance of 2032 began to be in debt, and gradually increased with the passage of time. Total debt in 2050 accounted for 48% of GDP, in 2011. The cost of transition from 2025 to 2034 is the main reason for the shortage of social pension for urban enterprise workers and staff. After 2035, the aging population replaces the cost of transition and becomes the main reason. It is suggested that the financial pressure of the pension gap should be alleviated by delaying the retirement age and allocating state-owned shares to the social security fund. The retirement age will be increased by 5 years for men and 7 years for women between 2015 and 2050; With 55% of the state equity allocated to the Social Security Fund in 2013-2050, both reforms can effectively delay but not close the gap, which would not occur until 2050, if both were implemented at the same time. Basically can realize our country town enterprise worker society as a whole pension sustainable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67

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