發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-10-24 11:32

【摘要】：基于2009-2011年保險(xiǎn)公司在各個(gè)地區(qū)經(jīng)營(yíng)交強(qiáng)險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù),本文分析了當(dāng)前的交強(qiáng)險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)水平在不同業(yè)務(wù)類型和不同地區(qū)之間存在的不公平性問題。通過賠付率和費(fèi)用率的相關(guān)性分析,揭示了交強(qiáng)險(xiǎn)費(fèi)用率的異常變化和可能受到的人為干預(yù)。定義和計(jì)算了交強(qiáng)險(xiǎn)的業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)因子、地區(qū)分布因子、固定業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)選擇因子和固定地區(qū)分布的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)選擇因子,對(duì)保險(xiǎn)公司在交強(qiáng)險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)能力和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)選擇能力進(jìn)行了比較分析。最后通過建立賠付率和費(fèi)用率的廣義線性模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)保險(xiǎn)公司降低交強(qiáng)險(xiǎn)賠付率最為有效的途徑是提高它在各個(gè)地區(qū)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)選擇能力,其次是增加在低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)地區(qū)的經(jīng)營(yíng)網(wǎng)點(diǎn)。
[Abstract]:Based on the actual data of insurance companies operating in various regions in 2009-2011, this paper analyzes the unfairness of the current premium level of traffic insurance in different business types and different regions. Through the analysis of the correlation between the compensation rate and the cost rate, the abnormal changes of the cost rate of traffic insurance and the possible human intervention are revealed. The business structure factor, regional distribution factor, risk selection factor of fixed business structure and risk selection factor of fixed area distribution are defined and calculated. This paper compares the competitive ability and risk selection ability of insurance companies in the traffic insurance market. Finally, by establishing a generalized linear model of compensation rate and cost rate, it is found that the most effective way for insurance companies to reduce the loss rate of traffic strong insurance is to improve their risk selection ability in each region, and then to increase the operating network in low-risk areas.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民大學(xué)應(yīng)用統(tǒng)計(jì)科學(xué)研究中心;中國(guó)人民大學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部重點(diǎn)研究基地重大項(xiàng)目“隨機(jī)效應(yīng)模型及其在非壽險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中的應(yīng)用”(12JJD790025) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相依的非壽險(xiǎn)精算模型研究”(71171193)資助
【分類號(hào)】：F842

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

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本文編號(hào)：2291281