【摘要】：為確保我國經(jīng)濟快速穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展,審計機關(guān)應(yīng)充分發(fā)揮其職能,這就要求審計機關(guān)要善于預(yù)測、識別、化解經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險,建立對審計風(fēng)險意識的預(yù)測,從錯綜復(fù)雜的問題中找出對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展產(chǎn)生主要影響的因素與問題,并將反饋信息及時報告給國家有關(guān)部門,提出政策性審計的建議。這些都是基于審計數(shù)據(jù)展開的,但是,目前的現(xiàn)狀是對審計數(shù)據(jù)的提取需要耗費大量人力、物力、時間,得到的數(shù)據(jù)有的還具有一定的保密性、異構(gòu)性,并不能被審計人員很好的利用,這使得有些審計業(yè)務(wù)很難開展,為此,需要構(gòu)建一個仿真數(shù)據(jù)庫。本文的研究內(nèi)容主要針對社會保險領(lǐng)域中的養(yǎng)老保險,基于養(yǎng)老保險行業(yè)國家標(biāo)準(zhǔn)庫中的9張表153字段分析出養(yǎng)老保險行業(yè)表之間、字段之間的相互關(guān)系,并通過對真實數(shù)據(jù)的處理、擬合,利用蒙特卡羅方法生成6張數(shù)據(jù)表中50個字段的仿真數(shù)據(jù),并將仿真數(shù)據(jù)與真實數(shù)據(jù)進行相似性檢驗,生成的仿真數(shù)據(jù)與真實數(shù)據(jù)符合程度極高;同時,由于政府制定的政策會對社會的個體行為產(chǎn)生很大的影響,從而導(dǎo)致仿真數(shù)據(jù)與真實數(shù)據(jù)的偏差過大。因此,在研究仿真數(shù)據(jù)的同時,也應(yīng)該關(guān)注相應(yīng)的政策制度,將政策仿真與數(shù)據(jù)仿真相結(jié)合,使得仿真數(shù)據(jù)根據(jù)政策進行自動調(diào)整。對社會保險參保繳費行為進行分析,利用經(jīng)典博弈模型分析繳費行為中各個參與人的博弈關(guān)系,并采用博弈演化的思想,提出一個基于進化博弈的參保繳費行為模型,并分析了該模型下不同政策參數(shù)對個體繳費行為以及社保機構(gòu)的影響;最后,以此模型為基礎(chǔ)對養(yǎng)老金繳費基數(shù)生成能夠根據(jù)政策的變化進行自我調(diào)整的、具有一定自適應(yīng)性的仿真數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建完整的仿真數(shù)據(jù)庫。
[Abstract]:In order to ensure the rapid and stable development of our country's economy, audit institutions should give full play to their functions, which requires them to be good at forecasting, identifying and defusing economic risks, and establishing a forecast of audit risk awareness. This paper finds out the main influence factors and problems on the economic development from the complicated problems, and reports the feedback information to the relevant departments of the country in time, and puts forward the suggestions of policy audit. These are all based on audit data, but the current situation is that the extraction of audit data needs a lot of manpower, material resources, time, and some of the obtained data has a certain degree of confidentiality and heterogeneity. It can not be used well by auditors, which makes it difficult to carry out some audit services. Therefore, it is necessary to build a simulation database. The research content of this paper is mainly aimed at the pension insurance in the field of social insurance. Based on the nine table 153 fields in the national standard library of the endowment insurance industry, the paper analyzes the relationship between the fields of the pension insurance industry and the pension insurance industry tables. By processing and fitting the real data, the simulation data of 50 fields in 6 data tables are generated by Monte Carlo method, and the similarity between the simulation data and the real data is verified. At the same time, the policy made by the government will have a great impact on the individual behavior of the society, which leads to the deviation between the simulation data and the real data. Therefore, when studying the simulation data, we should also pay attention to the corresponding policy system, combine the policy simulation with the data simulation, make the simulation data adjust automatically according to the policy. Based on the analysis of social insurance contributory behavior, this paper uses the classical game model to analyze the game relationship of each participant in the contributory behavior, and puts forward a model based on evolutionary game. It also analyzes the influence of different policy parameters on individual contribution behavior and social security institutions under this model. Finally, based on this model, the generation of pension contribution base can be self-adjusted according to the changes of policy. A complete simulation database is constructed with adaptive simulation data.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.67;F239.4;TP391.9

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 黃少濱;楊艷歌;呂天陽;;基于核密度估計的參保人員繳費基數(shù)核定方法研究[J];管理評論;2013年04期

2 胡曉峰;李志強;;國家關(guān)鍵基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建模仿真研究[J];上海理工大學(xué)學(xué)報;2011年06期

3 李大宇;米加寧;徐磊;;公共政策仿真方法:原理、應(yīng)用與前景[J];公共管理學(xué)報;2011年04期

4 胡繼曄;;社會保險基金監(jiān)管博弈分析[J];管理世界;2010年10期

5 黃璜;;社會科學(xué)研究中“基于主體建�！狈椒ㄔu述[J];國外社會科學(xué);2010年05期

6 張波;虞朝暉;孫強;李順;黃明祥;王利強;;系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)簡介及其相關(guān)軟件綜述[J];環(huán)境與可持續(xù)發(fā)展;2010年02期

7 楊志謀;司光亞;李志強;羅批;;大規(guī)模群體行為仿真模型設(shè)計與實現(xiàn)[J];系統(tǒng)仿真學(xué)報;2010年03期

8 劉貞;鮮康;;電網(wǎng)建設(shè)外部環(huán)境中的沖突協(xié)調(diào)機制仿真研究[J];系統(tǒng)仿真學(xué)報;2010年02期

9 吳海霞;劉潞鋒;;蒙特卡羅方法在實際問題中的應(yīng)用[J];太原師范學(xué)院學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2009年01期

10 鮮于波;梅琳;;間接網(wǎng)絡(luò)效應(yīng)下的產(chǎn)品擴散——基于復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)和計算經(jīng)濟學(xué)的研究[J];管理科學(xué)學(xué)報;2009年01期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 雷桂媛;關(guān)于蒙特卡羅及擬蒙特卡羅方法的若干研究[D];浙江大學(xué);2003年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 陳希;GPS觀測數(shù)據(jù)仿真系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計與實現(xiàn)[D];電子科技大學(xué);2013年

2 朱家立;試論社會養(yǎng)老保險繳費基數(shù)不實的原因及對策[D];中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院;2009年

，

本文編號：2265846