【摘要】：1997年我國的養(yǎng)老體制由現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制轉變?yōu)榱松鐣y(tǒng)籌與個人賬戶相結合的部分積累制。當時參保的職工沒有建立個人賬戶,也就沒有資金積累,但國家又承諾他們退休后照常發(fā)放養(yǎng)老金,這就形成了國家對他們的負債,即隱性債務。隱性債務問題影響著我國養(yǎng)老制度的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,必須得到妥善解決。為了更好的解決隱性債務問題,本文測算了近十年來隱性債務的規(guī)模,并對隱性債務的構成與影響因素進行了分析,同時對隱性債務發(fā)展的趨勢進行了預測。 本文共四章。第一章為緒論,詳細介紹了隱性債務產生的原因以及研究背景。第二章是測算模型的建立。以測算時間為界限,本文將隱性債務的對象分為“老人”,“退休中人”,“在職中人”三類。然后根據(jù)保險學知識,分別建立模型對其測算,將測算結果加總即可得到該年度隱性債務總規(guī)模。結合歷年統(tǒng)計年鑒中的數(shù)據(jù),利用matlab軟件,第三章根據(jù)上一章所建立的模型對2000～2010年各年度我國隱性債務的規(guī)模進行了測算。根據(jù)測算結果,分析了隱性債務的構成與發(fā)展趨勢,然后對影響隱性債務規(guī)模的多種因素做了靈敏度分析。本文最后一章根據(jù)測算結果和所做分析,結合其它國家償還隱性債務的經(jīng)驗,對隱性債務的償還提出了一些建議。 本文并非像其他學者那樣僅對單年度的隱性債務規(guī)模進行了測算,而是測算了近十年來的隱性債務規(guī)模,研究了隱性債務的動態(tài)發(fā)展趨勢以及重點償還對象的變化,并對影響隱性債務的多種因素均做了靈敏度分析。
[Abstract]:In 1997, the pension system changed from pay-as-you-go system to partial accumulation system. At that time, the insured workers did not set up personal accounts, nor did they accumulate funds, but the state promised them to pay pensions as usual after retirement, which resulted in the state's debt to them, that is, the implicit debt. The problem of recessive debt affects the sustainable development of pension system in China and must be solved properly. In order to solve the problem of recessive debt better, this paper calculates the scale of recessive debt in recent ten years, analyzes the composition and influencing factors of recessive debt, and forecasts the development trend of recessive debt. There are four chapters in this paper. The first chapter is the introduction, which introduces the reasons and the research background of implicit debt in detail. The second chapter is the establishment of the calculation model. In this paper, the object of recessive debt is divided into three categories: "the elderly", "the retired middle person" and "the working middle person". Then, according to the knowledge of insurance science, a model is established to calculate it, and the total size of implicit debt in that year can be obtained by adding the calculated results. Based on the data from the statistical yearbooks of the past years and using matlab software, the scale of China's implicit debt in 2000-2010 is calculated according to the model established in the previous chapter. According to the calculation results, the composition and development trend of implicit debt are analyzed, and the sensitivity analysis of various factors affecting the scale of implicit debt is made. In the last chapter, based on the results of calculation and analysis, combined with the experience of other countries in paying off implicit debt, some suggestions are put forward for the repayment of implicit debt. This paper not only measures the size of recessive debt in a single year as other scholars do, but measures the scale of recessive debt in the past ten years, studies the dynamic development trend of recessive debt and the change of key repayment object. The sensitivity analysis of various factors affecting implicit debt is made.
【學位授予單位】：中南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F842.67

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