本文選題：農(nóng)業(yè)保險 + 需求��； 參考：《南京信息工程大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：農(nóng)業(yè)保險是我國最重要的保險之一,也是農(nóng)業(yè)風(fēng)險轉(zhuǎn)移的一種重要手段,它在穩(wěn)定農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)、推動農(nóng)業(yè)新型技術(shù)的推廣及應(yīng)用、引導(dǎo)農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整等方面起到了重大的作用。但因其自身的地域性、周期性等特點,在發(fā)展和推廣過程中面臨管理和技術(shù)障礙。在我國,農(nóng)業(yè)保險發(fā)展緩慢,研究其需求影響因素和發(fā)展新型農(nóng)業(yè)保險尤為重要。本文在提出農(nóng)業(yè)保險服務(wù)效益理論模型與研究假設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了農(nóng)戶購買農(nóng)業(yè)保險意愿的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型,并基于問卷調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),從顯性問題和要素問題兩方面對我國的農(nóng)業(yè)保險購買意愿進(jìn)行了實證分析。結(jié)果表明：1.農(nóng)戶的購買能力、農(nóng)業(yè)保險服務(wù)效益對購買意愿有著正向直接的影響,而農(nóng)戶的投資偏好對購買意愿有著負(fù)向、直接的影響；2.農(nóng)戶的購買能力對購買農(nóng)業(yè)保險的意愿的影響最大,其次是農(nóng)戶曾有的投資經(jīng)歷和偏好;3.由于“經(jīng)驗論”的影響,投資偏好影響層次越高,導(dǎo)致購買意愿反而越低。農(nóng)業(yè)保險的發(fā)展受到許多因素的制約,為了滿足更大的需求,文章提出農(nóng)業(yè)保險的新方向——氣象指數(shù)保險。 通過設(shè)計油桃氣象指數(shù)保險實證分析,為開展油桃政策性農(nóng)業(yè)保險提供相應(yīng)的技術(shù)支撐。根據(jù)油桃減產(chǎn)率與氣象因子的關(guān)系,設(shè)計油桃凍害氣象指數(shù),利用氣象資料和廣義極值分布擬合油桃減產(chǎn)率分布,從而確定保險費率。結(jié)合區(qū)域產(chǎn)量指數(shù)保險和氣象指數(shù)保險優(yōu)點,設(shè)計油桃凍害氣象指數(shù)保險合同。最后,對農(nóng)業(yè)保險提出政策性的建議,促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)保險的新發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Agricultural insurance is one of the most important insurance in our country, and it is also an important means of agricultural risk transfer. It can stabilize the agricultural economy and promote the popularization and application of new agricultural technology. Guiding the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure and so on has played an important role. However, due to its own regional, periodicity and other characteristics, it faces management and technical obstacles in the process of development and promotion. In China, the development of agricultural insurance is slow, so it is very important to study the influencing factors of demand and to develop new agricultural insurance. Based on the theoretical model and research hypothesis of agricultural insurance service benefit, this paper constructs the structural equation model of farmers' willingness to buy agricultural insurance, and based on the questionnaire data, This paper makes an empirical analysis of China's willingness to purchase agricultural insurance from the aspects of dominance problem and factor problem. The result shows that 1: 1. The purchasing ability of farmers and the benefit of agricultural insurance service have a positive and direct effect on the purchase intention, while the investment preference of farmers has a negative effect on the purchase intention and has a direct effect on the purchase intention. The purchasing ability of farmers has the greatest influence on the willingness to purchase agricultural insurance, followed by the investment experience and preference of farmers. Because of the influence of empiricism, the higher the influence level of investment preference, the lower the purchase intention. The development of agricultural insurance is restricted by many factors. In order to meet the greater demand, this paper puts forward a new direction of agricultural insurance-meteorological index insurance. Through the empirical analysis of nectarine meteorological index insurance, this paper provides the corresponding technical support for nectarine policy agricultural insurance. According to the relationship between nectarine yield reduction rate and meteorological factors, the meteorological index of nectarine freezing injury was designed. The distribution of nectarine yield reduction rate was fitted by meteorological data and generalized extreme value distribution, and the insurance rate was determined. Combined with the advantages of regional yield index insurance and meteorological index insurance, the insurance contract for freezing injury weather index of nectarine was designed. Finally, put forward policy suggestion to agricultural insurance, promote the new development of agricultural insurance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京信息工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.66;S162.5

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