本文選題：退休年齡 + 勞動力供給　； 參考：《西南政法大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：計劃生育政策在中國已經(jīng)實行了30余年，，該政策在促進中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的同時，也是中國人口快速老化的總根源。而如今我們也將面臨著勞動力供給方面的許多問題，伴隨著中國人口預(yù)期壽命的提高，延遲勞動力退休年齡似乎成為了增加未來勞動力供給的一種有效手段，同時也為促進養(yǎng)老保險基金收支的平衡提供了可能。 本文在相關(guān)理論(保險精算理論、世代交替理論和生命周期理論)分析和數(shù)據(jù)分析的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合模型進行了一定的模擬預(yù)測，但是預(yù)測結(jié)果并未為中國延長退休年齡在勞動力供給和養(yǎng)老保險基金收支方面提供十分有力的支持。為了彌補這一缺陷和做出必要的創(chuàng)新，我們對養(yǎng)老保險基金缺口進行了較為合理的情景模擬。模擬結(jié)果顯示：采取延遲退休年齡的方式盡管有助于增加勞動力供給，有助于推遲養(yǎng)老保險基金缺口到來的時間，但是并不能從根本上解決基金缺口問題。因此長遠來看采取延遲退休年齡的方式解決養(yǎng)老保險基金缺口基本是無效的，甚至是有害的——我們在未來將失去進行政策調(diào)整的寶貴時間。 是什么原因?qū)е铝宋覀兊恼呤ъ`？事實上中國勞動力在未來的有限供給將無法維持養(yǎng)老保險基金的持續(xù)運行。最后分別從延遲退休年齡、計劃生育政策調(diào)整、改善養(yǎng)老保險基金投資收益等方面進行了對策研究，并指出了進一步的研究方向。
[Abstract]:The family planning policy, which has been in place in China for more than 30 years, not only promotes China's economic development, but also contributes to the rapid aging of China's population. But now we will also face many problems in the supply of labor. With the increase in life expectancy of the Chinese population, delaying the retirement age of the labor force seems to be an effective means to increase the supply of future labor. At the same time, it is possible to promote the balance of income and expenditure of pension insurance fund. Based on the analysis and data analysis of relevant theories (actuarial insurance theory, generation alternation theory and life cycle theory), this paper makes a certain simulation prediction based on the model. But the forecast does not provide strong support for China's extended retirement age in terms of labor supply and pension fund income and expenditure. In order to remedy this defect and make necessary innovation, we have carried on the reasonable scenario simulation to the pension fund gap. The simulation results show that the method of delaying retirement age can not fundamentally solve the problem of fund gap although it can help to increase the supply of labor and delay the arrival of pension fund gap. So in the long run it is largely ineffective or even harmful to address the gap in pension funds by delaying the retirement age-we will lose valuable time for policy adjustments in the future. What caused our policy failure? In fact, China's limited supply of labor in the future will not be able to maintain the continued operation of pension funds. Finally, the countermeasures are studied from the aspects of delaying retirement age, adjusting the family planning policy, improving the investment income of pension insurance fund, and pointing out the further research direction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F249.2;F842.67

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