本文選題：健康保險 + 價值評估　； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自從1982年,伴隨著我國的保險業(yè)務恢復,商業(yè)健康保險業(yè)務也經(jīng)歷了一個從無到有、突飛猛進的發(fā)展階段,尤其是2005年以后,陸續(xù)成立了人保健康、平安健康、昆侖健康、和諧健康等四家專門從事健康保險業(yè)務的公司,標志著我國健康保險市場開始踏上專業(yè)化經(jīng)營的道路。而截至2011年,在我國經(jīng)營健康保險業(yè)務的保險公司共有95家,分別為外資壽險公司28家,中資壽險公司33家,財險公司30家以及專業(yè)健康保險公司4家。商業(yè)健康保險的保費收入也從1999年的36.5億元增加到2011年的691.72億元。我國商業(yè)健康保險業(yè)務已取得可喜的成績。 健康保險公司要想在未來獲得更好的發(fā)展,就必須做好自身的經(jīng)營管理,而做好經(jīng)營管理就必須準確地評估出自身的價值,而價值評估不僅僅只是得出一個數(shù)字,首先,健康保險公司可以以此數(shù)值為業(yè)績考核的重要參考指標；其次,在價值評估的過程中,健康保險公司可以從其中獲得很多中間信息,認清價值來源,從而采取有針對性的措施提升自身價值,有助于企業(yè)經(jīng)營的目的---價值最大化的實現(xiàn)；第三,我國健康保險市場正處于蓬勃發(fā)展的階段,監(jiān)管者出于維護消費者權(quán)益、保證保險市場持續(xù)有效運行的目的,也需要對健康保險公司的價值進行管控與監(jiān)督；最后,由于一般傳統(tǒng)價值評估方法不適于我國健康保險公司,采用適合健康保險業(yè)務的評估方法得出的價值更符合投資者以及利益相關者的要求�；谝陨系睦碛�,為了保證健康保險行業(yè)更快更好地發(fā)展,準確有效的價值評估必不可少。 目前,國內(nèi)對健康保險公司價值進行研究的文獻極少,本文首先探討了保險公司價值的概念和價值評估的重要性,并結(jié)合健康保險的特征和當前我國健康保險公司所處的市場環(huán)境,總結(jié)了國外健康保險公司常用的三種價值評估方法：市場法、現(xiàn)值法和內(nèi)含價值法,緊接著對這三種方法的優(yōu)缺點以及適用的條件進行了分析,并結(jié)合了我國當前國情,同時對自由現(xiàn)金流量模型提出應該參照內(nèi)含價值法評估新業(yè)務價值,最終得出結(jié)論是當前最適合我國健康保險公司進行價值評估的方法是內(nèi)含價值法,同時也需要結(jié)合自由現(xiàn)金流量模型的評估結(jié)果進行考慮,待時機成熟時也可以參考市場法的評估結(jié)果。筆者使用自由現(xiàn)金流量模型、內(nèi)含價值法、市盈率法對人保健康保險公司進行了實證價值評估研究,價值評估的最終目的是實現(xiàn)公司價值最大化,盡可能提升公司價值,因此,文章的最后對我國健康保險公司提出了價值提升的相關建議。本文的主要內(nèi)容和結(jié)構(gòu)安排如下： 第一章主要詳細闡述了論文的選題背景,研究意義,研究的目的、內(nèi)容與方法,文獻綜述和論文的主要貢獻與不足,并對健康保險公司價值評估相關文獻進行了總結(jié)與歸納。文章主要采用從一般到特殊的研究思路,根據(jù)健康保險業(yè)務可以分為長期業(yè)務和短期業(yè)務的特點,研究出對健康保險公司進’行價值評估的關鍵在于認清健康保險的業(yè)務特征、行業(yè)發(fā)展、特殊的假設條件和長期業(yè)務的價值評估。 第二章通過對健康保險公司公司價值評估的研究,得出進行健康保險公司價值評估必須了解其凈利潤或者盈利能力。筆者從健康保險產(chǎn)品及其特征入手,得出健康保險在進行價值評估時面臨凈利潤預計困難、產(chǎn)品形態(tài)復雜、精算假設主觀性強、行業(yè)發(fā)展前景不明朗等難點,并借鑒和分析了國外健康保險公司常用的三種主流價值評估方法。 第三章從我國健康保險公司的經(jīng)營現(xiàn)狀入手,在國外健康保險公司價值評估方法的基礎上,對這些方法在我國的適用性進行了分析。筆者發(fā)現(xiàn),它們在我國實務中均會有不適之處,從而導致最終評估結(jié)果的準確性受到影響。如：由于缺乏公開活躍的市場和缺乏可比公司,市場法暫時不適合作為我國健康保險公司的價值評估方法；而又由于我國健康保險公司大多虧損和保險公司凈利潤的預測極為困難,并會低估長期業(yè)務的價值,自由現(xiàn)金流量模型必須做出一定的修正；從理論上說,內(nèi)含價值是比較適合用于健康保險公司價值評估的,但由于計算方法復雜和我國健康保險發(fā)展地區(qū)差異性較大等原因,實務中,內(nèi)含價值法極為復雜,接著分析了健康保險使用內(nèi)含價值時所需要考慮的一些特殊的假設。最后,筆者認為在三種方法中,內(nèi)含價值法是最適合我國當前國情的并且通過內(nèi)含價值的評估,健康保險公司能夠認識到價值的源泉,從而為采取措施實現(xiàn)公司價值最大化提升提供了可能性。 第四章,由于我國健康保險公司數(shù)據(jù)采集十分困難,并且精算報告被視為商業(yè)機密不予公布,筆者只能以中國最大的專業(yè)健康保險公司—中國人民健康保險公司(文中簡稱人保健康)為例,根據(jù)其2010年和2011年年報的數(shù)據(jù),運用市盈率法、內(nèi)含價值法和自由現(xiàn)金流量模型分別計算其價值。實證顯示,由自有現(xiàn)金流量模型做出的結(jié)果為負數(shù),其原因是公司處于行業(yè)的起步期,利潤情況極不穩(wěn)定,難以有效評估出未來盈利狀況。市盈率法與內(nèi)含價值法做出的結(jié)果較接近。綜合分析之后,得出內(nèi)含價值法適合我國健康保險公司現(xiàn)階段的價值評估,另兩種方法可作為適當?shù)难a充。 最后,筆者對三種評估方法進行了小結(jié),并嘗試從政府和保險公司管理層兩方面提出了有助于我國健康保險公司價值提升的建議。 本文的主要的貢獻表現(xiàn)在題目較為新穎,并且對我國健康保險公司發(fā)展有一定的幫助,隨著市場經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,價值評估對于公司意義重大,但是,國內(nèi)對健康保險公司的價值評估進行討論的文獻極少。因此,本文較新穎并且有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。此外,筆者在寫作過程中,注重總結(jié)、歸納與思考,總結(jié)并探討了影響健康保險公司價值評估的主要因素,并在總結(jié)與借鑒國外健康保險公司價值評估經(jīng)驗的基礎上,結(jié)合我國國情,嘗試提出適合我國健康保險公司價值評估的方法以及價值提升的相關建議。但是由于筆者自身水平不夠、時間有限和健康保險公司價值評估的實務中的具體做法的保密性,文章有許多不足之處,如對內(nèi)含價值法分析較淺,無法對健康保險公司運用內(nèi)含價值法做實證,并且對價值評估方法的分析欠缺實務中的經(jīng)驗與考慮。希望筆者以后有時間和機會將本文的不足逐步完善。
[Abstract]:Since 1982, with the recovery of the insurance business in China, the business health insurance business has also experienced a stage of rapid development. Especially after 2005, four companies specializing in health insurance, such as health, health, health, harmony and health in Kunlun, have marked the health insurance of our country. As of 2011, there were 95 insurance companies operating health insurance in China, including 28 foreign life insurance companies, 33 Chinese life insurance companies, 30 financial and insurance companies and 4 professional health insurance companies. The premium income of commercial health insurance increased from 3 billion 650 million yuan to 20 in 1999. 11 years of 69 billion 172 million yuan. China's commercial health insurance business has made gratifying achievements.
If health insurance companies want to get better development in the future, they must do their own management, and doing business management must accurately assess their own value, and value evaluation is not just a number. First, health insurance companies can count as the important reference index of performance assessment; secondly, In the process of value evaluation, health insurance companies can obtain a lot of intermediate information, recognize the source of value, and take targeted measures to improve their own value and help the purpose of business operation - the realization of the maximization of value. Third, the health insurance market in China is in the stage of vigorous development, and the supervisor is out of maintenance. The interests of consumers and the purpose of ensuring the sustainable and effective operation of the insurance market are also required to control and supervise the value of the health insurance companies. Finally, the value of the evaluation method suitable for the health insurance business is more consistent with the investor and the interest, because the general traditional value evaluation method is not suitable for the health insurance companies of our country. On the basis of the above reasons, accurate and effective value assessment is essential to ensure a faster and better development of the health insurance industry.
At present, there are few literature on the value of health insurance companies in China. This paper first discusses the concept of the value of the insurance company and the importance of the value evaluation, and combines the characteristics of health insurance and the market environment of the current health insurance companies in China, and summarizes the three methods of value evaluation commonly used by foreign health insurance companies: Market law, present value method and intrinsic value method are used to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods and the applicable conditions, and combine the current national conditions of our country. At the same time, the free cash flow model should be put forward to evaluate the new business value with reference to the internal value method. Finally, the conclusion is that the most suitable for our health insurance company is to be carried out at present. The method of value evaluation is internal value method, and it also needs to be considered in combination with the evaluation results of free cash flow model. When the opportunity is ripe, it can also refer to the evaluation results of market law. The author uses the free cash flow model, the internal value method and the price earnings ratio method to carry out empirical value evaluation on the human health insurance company. The ultimate aim of the value assessment is to maximize the value of the company and to improve the value of the company as much as possible. Therefore, the last part of the article puts forward some suggestions on the improvement of the value of our health insurance company. The main contents and structure of this paper are as follows:
The first chapter mainly expounds the background, significance, purpose, content and method of the research, the main contributions and shortcomings of the literature review and paper, and summarizes and summarizes the related literature of the health insurance company. The article mainly adopts the general to special research ideas, according to the health insurance business can It is divided into the characteristics of long-term business and short term business. The key to the assessment of the entry value of health insurance companies is to identify the business characteristics of health insurance, the development of the industry, the special assumptions and the value assessment of the long-term business.
The second chapter, through the study of the value evaluation of the health insurance company, concludes that the value assessment of the health insurance company must understand its net profit or profitability. From the health insurance products and its characteristics, the author draws the conclusion that health insurance is faced with the difficulties of net profit, the complex product form and the actuarial hypothesis. It is difficult to observe the nature of the industry and the development prospect of the industry. It also draws lessons from the analysis of three mainstream valuation methods commonly used by foreign health insurance companies.
The third chapter, starting with the management status of health insurance companies in China, analyses the applicability of these methods in our country on the basis of the valuation methods of foreign health insurance companies. The author finds that they all have discomfort in our country's practice, which leads to the impact of the accuracy of the final evaluation results. For example, because of the shortage of the results. Lack of open market and lack of comparable companies, market law is temporarily unsuitable for the value evaluation method of China's health insurance companies, but because most of the loss of our health insurance companies and the forecast of the net profit of insurance companies are extremely difficult and will underestimate the value of long-term business, the free cash flow model must be made to a certain extent. In theory, the intrinsic value is more suitable for the value assessment of the health insurance company, but in practice, the intrinsic value method is very complex in practice because of the complexity of the calculation method and the large difference in the development area of the health insurance in our country. Then, it analyzes some special fake which the health insurance needs to consider in the use of the intrinsic value. Finally, the author thinks that in the three methods, the internal value method is the most suitable for our country's current national conditions and through the assessment of the intrinsic value, the health insurance company can recognize the source of value, thus providing the possibility to take measures to maximize the value of the company.
In the fourth chapter, because the data collection of our health insurance company is very difficult and the actuarial report is considered to be not published, the author can only use the P / E method according to the data of its 2010 and 2011 Annual Reports, for example, China's largest professional health insurance company, the Chinese people's health insurance company (the article is referred to as the health insurance for short). The value of internal value method and free cash flow model are calculated respectively. The results show that the result is negative. The reason is that the company is in the start period of the industry, the profit situation is very unstable, and it is difficult to effectively evaluate the future profit. The price earnings method is close to the results of the internal value method. After analysis, it is concluded that the embedded value method is suitable for the valuation of health insurance companies in China at present stage, and the other two methods can be used as an appropriate supplement.
Finally, the author makes a summary of the three evaluation methods, and tries to put forward some suggestions from the two aspects of the government and the management of the insurance companies to help the health insurance companies in China to improve their value.
The main contributions of this paper are new and helpful to the development of health insurance companies in China. With the development of the market economy, the value assessment is of great significance to the company. However, there are few literature in China to discuss the value assessment of health insurance companies. In addition, in the process of writing, the author pays attention to summing up, summarizing and thinking, summarizes and discusses the main factors that affect the value evaluation of health insurance companies. On the basis of summarizing and drawing lessons from the experience of the value assessment of foreign health insurance companies and combining with the national conditions of our country, the author tries to put forward a method suitable for the evaluation of the value of health insurance companies in our country. But because of the inadequacy of the author's own level, limited time and the secrecy of the practice of the health insurance company's value assessment, the article has many shortcomings, such as the shallow analysis of the internal value method, and the inability to use the intrinsic value method for the health insurance company to make an empirical study and to evaluate the value of the value method. The analysis of law is short of practical experience and consideration. I hope that I will have time and opportunity to improve the shortcomings of this article.
【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F275;F842.3

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本文編號：1984618